Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - Don't Get Arrested
The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.
By JerseyAl
Just Don't Get Arrested:
It's that time on the NFL calendar between mini camps and the full training camp where players are sent off on their own without team supervision for a month or so. It's likely the most stressful time of year for NFL front offices, cringing every time an unexpected call comes in and praying that it's not about one of their players getting in trouble. Frank Clark and Zaven Collins have already kicked off this NFL trouble period. As for Packers players - remember that everywhere you go you carry the G and please, just don't get arrested.
Five's a Crowd
In terms of NFL-roster caliber talent, I can't think of a more crowded position on the Packers than tight end. Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, Jace Sternberger, Dominick Daffney all belong on an NFL roster somewhere. How many TEs will the Packers keep and who get's cut? The Packers will have a two week reprieve before having to make a final decision on that thanks to Sternberger's suspension, but then what?
Run for Love
Saw this mentioned on one of the Packers.com inbox series. "The Packers rushed for 2,118 yards in the regular season last year, the second-highest total for the team since 2003, and the only year since then that was higher was 2013 (2,136) when Rodgers missed half the season due to injury." If Rodgers misses this season for other reasons, with Jones and Dillon plus Jordan Love's running ability, you could see an all-time NFL team rushing record. (The current record, by the way, was set by the Baltimore Ravens in 2019 - 3.296 yards on 596 attempts). Another by the way, I spent a good 15 minutes trying to find the Packers' record for most team rushing yards in a season - google just kept coming back with individual records. If anyone knows where to find that number, please chime in.
Adams Angst:
I'm starting to feel a steady rise in fans' worries about Davante Adams and whether he will be signed to an extension by the Packers. There's little doubt that the Packers will be hot to keep him in the fold. But what if Rodgers isn't bluffing and doesn't come back. does Adams still stay with the Packers or decide to look for some record-setting deal elsewhere? Let's measure the angst level - cast your vote below:
Will Davante Adams Stay With the Packers if Aaron Rodgers doesn't?
By JerseyAl
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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther. Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
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Comments (101)
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 07:22 am
I voted YES. The problem is both are difficult for any team to fit into their cap. If Aaron leaves, the Packers would be very much able to pay Davante. Money talks with all of these players.
Davante Adams is the best WR in the NFL. Really don’t see that changing much in the next 4 years. I’d prefer we keep him, and I believe we will.
I wonder how that Sternberger situation resolves itself? Wouldn’t surprise me to see them go with 4 TE, and Dominique Daffney gets the call instead of Jace. The kind of substance abuse we’re talking about with Jace must be pretty significant if they’re not testing for weed. I just hope he can recover, and, maybe he qualifies for a non-football injury IR designation.
Wish I knew the rushing numbers, Al. Thanks for this and best to you!
Guam
June 23, 2021 at 11:27 am
Tonyan, Deguara and Lewis are safe, so the choice will come down to Sternberger or Daffney if they keep only four which I believe is likely. Sternberger certainly shot himself in the foot with his suspension and the possibility that he may have a larger problem. Another third round draft choice down the drain........
jannesbjornson
June 23, 2021 at 09:13 pm
What in the hell are you babbling about?
Guam
June 23, 2021 at 09:48 pm
Read the article....it usually helps.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 24, 2021 at 03:27 am
Perhaps. I don't think we should think of Deguara and especially Dafney as TEs at all. LaFleur loves an F-back and that's Deguara. Took a while to find someone who could replace Deguara (and it wasn't Sternberger), so since the offense works better with an F-back, Dafney is that backup, even though he is probably really a fullback.
Sternberger's suspension helps him. I have him as the bubble player, albeit one with enough upside (and draft capital - it should not matter but too often it does) to make a team very reluctant to give up on him.
Sternberger will open up on the Reserve/Suspended list. A roster spot might very well open up organically or the Packers might and even probably will want to give him one more year. Perhaps the Packers get a look at a surprise like Winfree, Taylor/Hill and then decide.
Sternberger as a cut is cap neutral. Due to the suspension GB saves $94K in 2021 and $27K in 2022 (the latter comes from his signing bonus relief which won't count until 2022 but since GB doesn't pay his base salary, that counts immediately).
Coldworld
June 24, 2021 at 05:43 am
Thank you, I’ve got tired of pointing out that despite of the fact that common nomenclature doesn’t differentiate “ I don't think we should think of Deguara and especially Dafney as TEs at all.” The team doesn’t, the role is distinct as are the builds and skill sets sought. Yes emergency overlap may be possible, but that is it.
Crankbait
June 23, 2021 at 08:03 am
No he is not the best receiver in the NFL.
Real weapons in the NFL are the deep threats who stretch the field.
He has no breakaway speed and he goes down easy.
That being said he's probably in the top five no doubt about it.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 10:35 am
Real weapons in the NFL get open, catch the fucking ball (btw, this is not a slam or anything untoward - just a tip of the hat to an old friend who used to post under the name CTFB), and score TDs.
Davante Adams' Catch% was 77% last season, a number reserved for the very best of the best WRs in NFL history, in their best years. He had 18 TDs. He also had 73 1Ds. In 14 games.
Jerry Rice's best Catch% was 74.2% in 1994.
No exclamation points necessary on those numbers. They speak for themselves.
Leatherhead
June 23, 2021 at 01:41 pm
I remember CTFB from Zbuds.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 02:17 pm
Atta' boy!!! I loved CTFB. Man, going way, way back. I was "wilder" at Z's... that was a really fun place for a very long time.
Leatherhead
June 23, 2021 at 04:05 pm
Wilder. For some reason that associated with “painting “ in my mind. CTFB had a muddy Forrest Gregg as his avatar.
greengold
June 24, 2021 at 07:48 am
Yes. Ah, Zbuds... That place rocked all throughout the Favre era. I was changing careers at the time, and got my BFA in design from Arizona State University. Pat Tillman was in my class. Those were some fun days.
I do recognize some here from that place. If I'm not mistaken, I think Spock was "retiredgrandpa" - and I gave him some tickets to a Packer game down there that I couldn't use...
I've seen weeds around and we messaged back and forth a few times. Randy. FreeSafety. reckless. CarolinaPackFan. Many of us met up before games a number of times. That's where I met Al, at one of those tailgates. I think Since'61 might have been on there back in the day. Maybe not. I thought it was Since'66 if that rings a bell.
Anyhow, moved back here to the motherland almost 20 years ago, and have been painting contemporary abstract works ever since. I was a top selling artist in the US for a while in reproduction format, Crate & Barrel, Peir 1 Imports, Baker Furniture... Had a piece in the White House. Now, all I do are originals. Big stuff. I've got a large & in charge commission I'm jamming on now. It is pretty exciting work. That's how I've met so many players and coaches, GMs from our teams here. I sell luxury. Gilbert Brown wants to commission a Gravedigger piece. He's a friend of mine, along with Santana. The two are inseparable. Fun dudes. Charles Woodson and I talked about doing some wine label stuff. That dude is an insane pool shark! whoosh! I used to be in branding, and worked on some high profile projects. R.E.M. Live. Microsoft. Glad to have switched to painting. I love it. Paint. Post. Paint. Post. I jump in here sometimes while I'm letting layers dry...
Working on a giant Nelson Mandela commission now for an executive at Harley Davidson.
Anyhow, hope all is well for you and my friends here. Gotta jam! Cheers!
Coach Cleve Steamer
June 24, 2021 at 07:50 am
I’m almost as impressed with you as you are.
greengold
June 24, 2021 at 08:17 am
Just sharing. Why do you have to be so mean spirited?
Was just trying to explain how I met and know some of these players, GMs, etc. Some of them I've become friends with. Ahman Green has been to the studio, and wants to bring his son down. A bunch of Brewers. Bucks. Peter Fein has some of my work, as does his brother. John Hammond used to come down regularly just to hang out before shoot arounds. We talked about Giannis before he drafted him. Hammy's a fun dude. Really nice guy. It's pretty cool stuff.
Not unlike the Packers, this is about relationships. Fans coming together, sharing ideas, talking about our favorite team.
Minniman
June 23, 2021 at 03:16 pm
He’s probably the best technician and route runner in the NFL, which is why he can get separation and open (at least enough to make a catch). As he ages, and loses a step of pace, these traits will still allow him to be a reliable ‘chain mover’ for longer in his career than some of his peers (who rely on speed and/or size for this). This is the main reason why I believe that the Packers will try their utmost to retain him. Salary cap restrictions is the caveat here, but this is solvable.
That said, at present he can’t function as a ‘one-man-band’ , like say Julio Jones or OBJ presently can (which in itself is changing as they age); and benefits from really knowing his QB.
The irony of the whole “Aaron Rodgers situation” is that AR, Adams and Jones have had the years together to gel, and collectively have become more potent as a group than the sum of their individual skills for it.
On a side note - Given Rodgers proclivity to insist on players “earning his trust’, how is that going to bode if he in fact does leave this year? He doesn’t have that much time for an entirely new set of skill players to ‘earn his trust’. If he does move on, that’s probably the most interesting thing that I’ll be watching his new teams games for…… Aaron Rodgers overcoming his own biases (flaws) and throwing to the open man. I hope that it doesn’t come to pass, but as they say, we hope for the best and plan for the worst!
CoachDino
June 23, 2021 at 03:58 pm
Da just spent an entire season functioning as a one man band in terms of everyone on the field new where the ball was most likely to go. He had the 2nd most rec in the league, Tonyan was the 78th in the league and the next highest Packer. I understand the secondary receivers are somewhat of a committee and that's what made it work so well but DA was a one man band when he was in the game. In the end its was what led AR to fail when he refused to look elsewhere.
Also won't argue that DA isn't the weapon that Julio was when healthy and never will be, its not his game but he is as much of a one man band as they come, it might just take 2-3 receptions per drive instead of 1 or 2 for the more explosive superstars.
Loved the comments on AR and his "trust" factor and how that will work out on a new team. Of course he will need to make adjustments but you may also see the days of plenty of sacks and throwing the ball away.
It's why the thought of drafting WRs to help the offense year 1 or even 2 not rto mention midseason FA signings made little sense.
Minniman
June 24, 2021 at 04:30 am
I do see your point Coach re Adams being Rodgers go-to pass target…….. with daylight second!
Effectively that was what happened in the second half of the NFCCG, wasn’t it. The Buccs called Rodgers bluff that he wasn’t not going to throw the ball to Adams……… Bowles:” ignore the jet sweeps, players in motion and RB\TE cross-over routes - just disrupt Adams on the 3rd downs as the ball is definitely going to him”.
greengold
June 24, 2021 at 07:25 am
You hit on a a topic that I'd been wrestling with for a while here, Dino.
I was wondering about DA's 149 Targets. Seemed disproportional to the rest of the group, and it was, by a lot.
However, I went back and looked at how some other top WRs were used. Greg Jennings and Randall Cobb came close, into that 120-130 range, but never quite reached that number of Targets.
Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, Antonio Freeman, Robert Brooks all had more, some multiple years with more. Davante had 169 Targets in 2018.
DA's 2020 numbers weren't as disproportionate as I had originally thought, compared to other WRs in Packers history. Jerry Rice eclipsed that number of targets a bunch of times throughout his 20 years of play. Rice surpassed that total 6 times since 1992 the year the stat started being recorded.
Just thought I'd share. Pretty interesting stuff.
Leatherhead
June 24, 2021 at 05:42 pm
Adams was on the field for over 60 snaps, and got targeted about 10 times.
How does this translate to “one man band”?
The offense is designed to make teams stop the Rodgers-to-Adams pitch and catch. If they don’t, we’re always going to be on first down. Most teams use two guys on him to slow him down, and that’s why MVS and Tonyan are so open so often.
Our RBs, especially Jones, carried a heavier load. Between runs and passes, about 60% of plays are designed to get the ballin their hands.
Even Jimi Hendrix had a bassist and a drummer. Adams had a great season, but he’s not a one man band.
greengold
June 24, 2021 at 07:55 am
Minniman, you make a great point here on how Davante gains separation, and how those skills aren't going away anytime soon. That is what really makes him effective, and as you say, "a chain mover."
That kind of ready, consistent availability on the field as a receiver is going to be like pure gold to the young Jordan Love, as he finds his way at the NFL level, and should help him build confidence early on and throughout the tenure of any extension DA might receive from the Packers.
jeremyjjbrown
June 23, 2021 at 11:58 am
I think the Packers would keep Adams and he for sure will sign a Max like deal in GB as soon as it's printed. But I do see a senario where Rodgers is traded because he doesn't show and as a result Adams gets traded as well to build up draft capital. I don't think it's likely, just possible.
I still think this is a winning football team without Rodgers. Obviously not 13 or 14 wins but possibly 9 or 10 because the running game is very strong and to date underutilized.
CoachDino
June 23, 2021 at 04:07 pm
Good point, Though unlikely they might decide to retool but to your point thay do have a strong team to put around Love and still be competitive. We are so spoiled with thinking SB or Bust. Heck basically only 20% or so of the teams in the NFL have a chance. Sports are about competing. Winning is not the reason but the goal. IMOP its why we see so many weak minded people compared to days past. If they don't win they want to quit. I've coached at the lowest levels of sports for 30 plus years. 99.99% of these kids will never go out on top or reach their ultimate goal. Yet character is built through overcoming failure through hard work and commitment in order to compete again with the desire to show improvement and that they are pushed aside so easily.
Coldworld
June 23, 2021 at 12:25 pm
I voted no, thinking that Adams will be in his 30s if Love takes a year or two to take off (or another has to come in).
That said, I’m wondering if the two might be linked in a different way: unless and until Rodgers restructures or forfeits cap (salary), is our cap position next year an insuperable obstacle? If so, the position is moot until Rodgers moves one way or the other.
Leatherhead
June 23, 2021 at 04:17 pm
Adams will turn 29 this season. If you sign him to a three year deal, you’ll be buying a guy who is 30, 31, and 32 …..not 28 like he was last year.
The WRs who are catching passes, gaining yards, and scoring points are OVERWHELMINGLY under 30. There are a few exceptions, like Thielen or Cole Beasley, but not many. Even the great Julio Jones missed 7 games last year.
This would be a bad investment. We’d be ahead drafting one. I suspect that the Love era might be more of a RB and TE driven offense than we’ve seen in Green Bay for quite a while.
Minniman
June 23, 2021 at 11:54 pm
“ I suspect that the Love era might be more of a RB and TE driven offense than we’ve seen in Green Bay for quite a while.”
Not meaning to diminish your comment, that writing has been on the wall with the teams draft and retention investments in OLine, RB and TE positions. Even the playbook, with loads of motion plays, crossing and rub-routes and power sweeps suggest this.
Some might suggest that it’s built for a balanced attack and specifically not an over-reliance on QB play…… which just makes good QB play that much more potent!
Savage57
June 23, 2021 at 06:56 am
Adams indeed represents a quandary.
Rodgers comes back, can the Packers afford to pay Adams +/- $25M per without restructuring Rodgers and tying a cap anchor around their leg and jumping out of the boat?
Rodgers doesn't come back, does Adams want to play on a team without him and have to try to recreate chemistry with a fledgling NFL QB?
jurp
June 23, 2021 at 07:58 am
If Rodgers doesn't come back, then Adams will have already had a year to create the chemistry with Love (Bortles?). If Adams' numbers/utilization don't go down with a new QB, then why wouldn't he want to return to GB? Of course, the flip side is also true, but one thing is certain - GB can't afford Adams if they keep AR's contract.
CoachDino
June 23, 2021 at 04:20 pm
I disagree on the one or the other and here's why.
I am a Cap believer and realize the Packers have been all in for a few years and have destroyed their cap position. 2022 is very scary to say the least.
Yet, The GBP will most certainly back load DA's contract eliminating any substantial hit in 2022.
IMO garnered from listening to the NFL FO and authors on CHTV and others the Cap limit is due to take a "huge" leap. This is due too
1) New TV agreement completely kicking in
2) Readjustment of the cap from the COVID protocols that decimated the profit indicator that determines the Cap Limit.
IMO, having a background in negotiating with differing currencies and over multiple years, I beleive there is an opportunity to buy low on many contracts. DA, JA are the two most prominent but Z,Amos etc complete due diligence in mind.
Contracts have been artificially restricted in many cases due to the situation, when the salary cap goes up the agents and players will want to see salaries rise with it opposed to teams wish of just adding more talent with the additional space. The players and agents will most certainly win in this scenario.
So every player you sign now, under what is seen as the current market value will be a savings in itself when compared to the cost of signing them in the future under the adjusted cap and hence Market Value.
This topic will be front and center going into 2022 FA season.
Leatherhead
June 23, 2021 at 06:38 pm
Coach…..why is our cap “destroyed”? I’m not an expert, but it seems to me that we can be in pretty good shape if we part with some older high dollar players. Rodgers is heading out the door, Adams has one year remaining, and several vets have contracts structured so that we can get relief if we trade them.
TGR or one of the other smart guys…..am I correct in believing our cap situation could be pretty good in a year?
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 07:58 pm
Yeah, that is a good angle. The money is only going to go up after this pandemic. Moving now on some of this will prove beneficial 2 years from now.
We won’t be able to do too much, and the players all know this too. Some will want to wait it out. Some might have different needs and will want to cash in now, if the price is right.
jannesbjornson
June 23, 2021 at 09:18 pm
So, the cash will buy the next HOF quarterback?
Coldworld
June 24, 2021 at 05:50 am
Just curious, but how long do you see Rodgers being close to his current physical ability?
Leatherhead
June 24, 2021 at 07:26 am
Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers…..HOF QBs who haven’t been to a Super Bowl in over a decade.
It’s nice to have an HOFer at quarterback, but it guarantees nothing.
Coach Cleve Steamer
June 24, 2021 at 07:52 am
With Tom Brady being the outlier. He could take the Packers to the Super Bowl and win a Lombardi trophy.
Razer
June 23, 2021 at 07:03 am
Don't get arrested and don't get shot - what a gangster culture.
I doubt that the Packers resign Davante Adams and a whole bunch of guys at the end of this season. Too many contracts and too much money going forward. Some of our young studs will get secured as a foundation for the next generation Packers but big money to keep this team together with Rodgers at the helm isn't likely. We had last year and this year to get the job done then the rebuild starts unless QB1 starts the clock earlier.
Guam
June 23, 2021 at 07:46 am
Thumbs up Razor! The rebuild starts after the 2021 season and a $22-25 million WR who is pushing 30 will be one of the first to go. Please note that I am not anti-Davante and believe he is one of the best receivers in the league and should age better than many as he does not rely on his speed to get open. Nonetheless, a new contract will push him into an age bracket wherein most WRs fade to some degree and you do not want to be paying mega bucks to a potentially fading player.
The money saved from parting ways with Adams and other older players will allow the Packers to pay their young stars and begin the process of building toward a new Super Bowl winning cycle with a young QB and young players.
dobber
June 23, 2021 at 09:19 am
I would argue that the rebuild has been underway for several years.
Davante is a great player and he runs up big numbers, but how much of that is a product of who is throwing him the ball?
Adams hasn't played 16 games since 2016, either, and has a track record for missing time either due to taking big hits or soft tissue injuries. Keeping in mind that playing 14 games per season isn't terrible, you have to ask yourself if 13-14 games is what you can count on every year based on his age and track record--and whether or not you can do better tying that cap into a younger guy.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 10:43 am
Davante Adams put up Jerry Rice like numbers in only 14 games last year. He's only 28. That dude can easily ball out another 4 year extension at a very high level.
If we are moving on from AR, which we are, why would you not want to load up on the very best talent you can around a good starting QB on his rookie deal, assuming Jordan Love will be a good QB???
That is the money spot. We are entering into that money spot right now with Jordan Love on his rookie deal. Fucking hit the gas and let's go!
Load the team around Love with the best talent you can afford while he is on his rookie deal, and go win the Lombardi Trophy, as many times as you can.
CoachDino
June 23, 2021 at 04:30 pm
I'm with you GG. DA is the perfect WR for a young QB, Take your drop look to your 1st read (DA) and with his ability to get open quickly our young QB can just let it rip. The last thing we need is a bunch of deep threats that force him to hold onto the ball on his first read and then try to go through his progression.
I just left a post on why I think DA is affordable with or w/o AR.
The Packers have put together a team that can be very competitive for years to come w/o AR. The cap savings and cap increase will position them in a way to hold and add talent.
yes, I think Love will still take 1 -2 years to develop (other than Marino, MaHomes & Big Ben?) name guys that have led their teams to the SB in year 2 over the last 50 years...So I don't have that expectation for Love but I am still excited about seeing him and the team compete.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 06:38 pm
Yeah, cool! TGR has a piece on extending DA from April, and it appeared entirely feasible to him, with the proper massaging.
Mahomes sat year 1 behind Alex Smith 2017, started year 2 and won MVP 2018, started year 3 and won the Super Bowl 2019 season.
I think it’s important to remember as improbable as it may seem, Jordan Love is walking into his year 2 with his team already assembled with the purpose to win the Super Bowl. LaFleur is going to be all over JL in order to insure his ultimate success. Once AR sees how good this 2021 Packers team is, he’ll have a hard time staying away.
Guam
June 23, 2021 at 04:19 pm
Certainly things started to change when TT retired and Gute was hired, but I am not sure I would call it a rebuild. Some change is always inherent in a cap system because teams can no longer afford to keep aging stars and I think that kind of normal turnover was what was happening. To me drafting Love signaled the true beginning of a rebuild because the Packers effectively announced the Rodgers era was coming to a close (final date TBD).
I agree on Davante - it always helps to have a first ballot HOF QB throwing to you. I think he is very good, but heading for 30 at $22-25 million per year - time to move on.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 01:15 pm
It's OK, Guam. I get it. Too much to ask anyone to really get on board with a player they don't know, or one who comes from outside the Power 5, much less one who has yet to take a snap in an NFL game.
The thing is, it is not just Jordan Love who I have confidence in. It is Matt LaFleur, his coaching staff, and this entire team that surrounds him. The 2021 Packers team.
Put it this way, if Jordan Love could have left Utah St. as a Sophomore to enter the NFL Draft in April of 2019, he would have likely been the first QB taken. Possibly the #1 overall pick.
In 2019, 9 of his 11 starters on offense were gone, with a new HC, a new OC... Andy Herman mentioned yesterday in reviewing his 2019 film, that there were games where not one of the 10 other players Love lined up with was a mismatch for their counterparts on the opposing team's defense. Think about that, and how it might have affected his play, and how he is perceived today.
Jordan Love has never, ever, had this much talent surrounding him.
Do I think Jordan Love, with all this support is good enough to take over as the Packers starting QB Week 1 and help guide this team to the playoffs? Absolutely.
One of the key advantages a team like KC had with Mahomes was they had him on his rookie deal, and were able to spend $$$ in the right spots to take the team all the way to winning the Super Bowl.
We are right there, right now.
I've been on both sides of the fence on this. None of the issues we are discussing here for the Packers are easy. I'm just of the mindset now, with AR looking like he's on the way out, to take advantage of the cap savings Jordan Love brings with his rookie deal, and give him the best tools possible to win it all.
CoachDino
June 23, 2021 at 06:18 pm
I would call the change an all in approach that would end with a transition to a new QB that would be much younger and offer the cap relief needed when they started with the all in approach.. look what it did to the cap, what else defines an all-in but mortgaging the future for the present.
AR knows whats up, he goes from a Top 5 to Top 10 aging/declining slowly QB to an MVP and it changes the scenario. Like he said himself, themvp threw a monkey wrench into it.
So knowing this AR is trying to get paid big time NOW or Traded to where he can get another #1 QB 3-5 yr contract.
I get why he has done it but I don't respect it. Not with 3 years left on a very elite contract to begin with. The reason it seems small in current payout is because of the huge guaranteed $ he was given upfront. When you figure in his prorated bonus (which he already has) he is the most expensive QB in the League.
The rest of the disrespected, wants say, about people stuff is nothing but a smoke screen to apply pressure to GB to make a dumb deal.
Bottom Line.
Play under the contract you have in 2021 or sit-out/retire.
PeteK
June 23, 2021 at 12:44 pm
Add to that a 17 game schedule. They are both very talented and have a great working relationship that compliments each other. Those throws and catches are truly poetry in motion. It might be the best tandem the Packers have ever had.
Minniman
June 24, 2021 at 04:45 am
I might have the rose colored glasses on Pete, but the Rodgers to Jordy Nelson back shoulder was pretty special….. and nigh on indefensible.
Coldworld
June 24, 2021 at 05:56 am
I think Adams gets too little credit. There is no doubt that Rodgers helps verses an inaccurate QB, but Adams consistently finds space. Adams will remain good until he loses his quick feet in my view. His game has never been about long speed.
mattgsx
June 23, 2021 at 09:55 am
Yep. Through this roster was constructed to give AR one last good shot at a SB in Green Bay, should they part ways, it is well built to ease Love in, and while there will certainly be cuts and folks walking at the end of the year, the foundation is in place for a strong ground game with what could be one of the best RB tandems or there and a strong and stable OL. IF I were a betting man I would guess this season is the last time we will see DA, Jace, Lowry, King, Patrick, Lewis, and Turner in green and gold. MVS and/or Lazard, and Tonyan get extended.
Should Aaron be traded this year, this should provide enough cap relief in 2022 to get us under and maybe also plug in one or two mid-level FAs at WR and maybe DL or TE. If Aaron decides to come back and play in GB this year, I'm not sure that would be enough, and I think 2022 would be a total cut and gut to get under the cap with possible spillover into 2023, even if he were traded at the end of the 2021 season.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 11:04 am
I have to respectfully disagree with you here, Razer. Much of what you're talking about is based on a supposition that we're going to suck without AR this season.
Jordan Love is a good QB. He's got possibly a Top 5 HC in terms of QB knowledge, and in how to optimize their use and skill sets. Love can literally make every throw. He needs simply to be put into his best positions for success and career growth.
Understandably, he needs to learn how to read and adjust to the NFL defenses that he will face.
I'm pretty sure that Matt LaFleur's run heavy attack will afford Love more opportunities to learn and be successful. JL should be able to get away with some of the learning mistakes he'll make with this much talent around him, especially on offense, where we are loaded.
We also have a defense. They should alleviate some of those learning curve miscues as Love grows and gains confidence.
Why would you want to take one of the Packers' best WRs away from him, when Jordan Love might actually be able to win this whole thing under the proper guidance, and with what we can expect to be an improved D and STs???
What is our ultimate goal? Winning Lombardi Trophies, not the cap.
The team around Jordan Love is built to win a Super Bowl.
That's part of the beauty of having a high quality rookie contract QB starting for your team. Surround him with the best talent that you can possibly afford, while you have him on his rookie deal.
Make hay while that sun shines.
I'd keep Davante Adams at all costs, especially with Love essentially being a rookie QB. He can get open and gain separation at will. Adams is a valuable commodity, and he will help us to maybe get into the thing and win it. Imagine being Love and having Davante there, along with Amari, MVS, EQ and Lazard... That will only help minimize his rookie QB mistakes.
Davante Adams' veteran presence and his ability to gain separation will be like pure gold to any developing QB.
Pay Davante, and go win the damn thing. That's the goal.
13TimeChamps
June 23, 2021 at 12:15 pm
"I'd keep Davante Adams at all costs"
Thank goodness you're not the GM. Destroy the SC over one receiver who has missed 6 games over the past 2 years....and we went 6-0 in those games? Not a smart move. But thankfully, we have professionals making those decisions.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 11:59 am
You offer nothing but snipes. Constantly. What you wrote there doesn't even make sense.
Are you new to football? Players get hurt. Missing 6 games over the course of 6 years is nothing. Pure nonsense. Again.
13TimeChamps
June 23, 2021 at 12:14 pm
Makes all the sense in the world. It's not that he missed 6 games, it's that GB went 6-0 in those games. And it was over the last two years, not six.
Maybe you should stick to your Shailene Woodley updates. They're fascinating.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 12:30 pm
Nice edit you made there. You said 6 years, not me. 6 games missed over 2 seasons is still next to nothing. Whatever. Snipe.
You offer nothing other than your incessant personal attacks upon whomever you wish to target. Zero substance from you, again. Consider yourself ignored from here on out.
Guam
June 23, 2021 at 12:01 pm
GG: I know you think highly of Jordan Love, but others including myself think it will take a couple years before Love truly blossoms. I wouldn't mind at all if you are right, but I just think he will take some time to develop. That window means Love won't get to full capability until Davante is over 30. I would rather invest in a young WR.
dobber
June 23, 2021 at 12:55 pm
That's primarily my position: how do you best utilize the cap to make this team better if #12 is gone? Do you pay your top WR big money, or do you split that huge cap hit over improving other positions on the roster? I don't get paid to make those decisions, but agree with the other sentiment that if you want your young QB to win games for you, you need to put talent around him that allows him to do so...that might be by paying the WR, or by bringing in two younger but ascending WR, or it might be by improving the depth and quality of your defense.
CheesyTex
June 23, 2021 at 02:12 pm
Right on.
And I'm still stuck on the idea that now is the time to renegotiate -- with Jordan Love. Yes, he's totally unproven in the NFL. But as such, the cost of a two year extension should be quite low right now.
Just seems to me that it would be a great hedge to have -- if #12 returns for a few years, Love would still be under an affordable contract as a high-ceiling, unproven backup QB. If #12 does not return, it would be terrific to have him locked up as a starter if he is successful, but OK as an affordable backup at a premier position if not.
wildbill
June 23, 2021 at 02:25 pm
Not a bad plan, except if Love sucks. He hasn’t taken one snap in a game at NFL speed. Of course everything coming out of camp about him will be trending positive.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 24, 2021 at 04:11 am
Teams can't renegotiate a rookie deal until after the rookie has accrued three seasons.
Minniman
June 24, 2021 at 05:09 am
The flaw in that argument is that you end up in the same position as the ‘Scotty Pippen dilemma’ of the Chicago Bulls dynasty. He’s on a long term contract, but it’s too, too cheap if he realizes his full potential, and he most likely becomes resentful for it.
If he pans out, then the Packers want him around for at least 2-4 additional 4 year contract extensions - and the Packers need him to want to stay. A step like this doesn’t position the relationship for that.
greengold
June 25, 2021 at 10:08 am
Hey Guam, this goes right to my point. We don't need Jordan Love to truly blossom to be successful this season. We need him to learn how to lead this team, make some throws, not take sacks, protect the football, and play within the constraints of Matt LaFleur's system.
Love doesn't have to be great, just good.
Davante Adams is the perfect player for that to become a success. He is 28 years old, and doesn't turn 29 until December. Being that Davante is not a burner, and doesn't count on deep speed for his success, (and he's now arguably tops in the NFL) he should be able to remain successful well past another 4 year extension.
I know the attrition you're thinking about. My point is there are outliers. Davante Adams is about to start his 8th year.
Jerry Rice played 20 years
Larry Fitzgerald 15 years
Tim Brown 14 years
Ricky Proehl 14 years
Charlie Joiner 15 years
Andre Reed 15 years
Chris Carter 15 years
Derrick Mason 14 years
Henry Ellard 15 years
Art Monk 15 years
Isaac Bruce 15 years
Terrell Owens 14 years
Drew Hill 14 years
Reggie Wayne 13 years
Donald Driver 13 years
A 4 year extension puts Davante Adams in the 12-13 year category. I see him being highly productive for at the very least another 3 seasons. He could become one of the All-Time greats in GB, if we help him, by retaining him. Or, he will go down as one of the All-Time greats playing somewhere else.
Can't really see the bottom dropping out on him over the duration of another extension, not with his specialty being short to intermediate field gains and scoring. No one can stay with him. He's breaking ankles all over the place. DA is a walking 1st down. He's also a walking TD in the red zone. That's not going to change anytime soon. If he can help us win a Super Bowl or two in this stretch, great. That's money well spent. Plus, it helps your young franchise QB who is now learning the NFL ropes.
Davante Adams staying with the Packers would definitely help flatten that learning curve for JL. How much is that worth?
dobber, I know what you're saying too. Let's look at the long game. What if the Packers do trade AR for picks? I haven't left that realm, yet, as being a possibility. Denver media is waking up to the fact that the number just for AR alone is going to be 3 R1s plus a player. The fan reactions are starting to warm to that, and they would flip if that actually happened.
What if, Gutekunst then takes two R1s next draft and trades up for the best WR in the draft? That would leave us with DA, Amari Rodgers and possibly another Ferrari superstar WR, and whomever else remains standing on the Packers roster. That would be two very young WRs (Amari plus a 2022 R1 WR) who would be on our roster learning from one of the best in the NFL. I see great value in extending DA, in more places than the production he would bring.
wow.
mattgsx
June 23, 2021 at 05:36 pm
Don't disagree with most of that. But with the cap gymnastics done to get under the cap this year I think it would be very hard to sign Tae without losing another contributor elsewhere. I agree Adams would make Love better just based on what he brings to the table, but if you're robbing Peter to pay Paul will you still be able to field a competitive team at the end of the day?
CoachDino
June 23, 2021 at 06:37 pm
Gangster Culture?
Not sure what is meant by that so my comments aren't directed at anyone in particular.
Don't get arrested IMO has to do with not so much any culture but what happens when young men hit the Lottery, go back to their hometowns and are celebrated everywhere they go. Ya, most come from a culture of lower income or poverty but not all by any means but few come from the type of money they just ran into as an 20 something elite athlete.
This is Wi so I feel safe to say that our culture being 18 or older and hitting the lottery while away and the moving back home for a Month is to go out with all your old/highschool friends, get trashed 4 nights a week, buy rounds, go boating, have BBQ's, hit the Lake and party. Then off to the big city or if already there hit the higher end clubs, maybe some VIP treatment. Still getting in workouts 4-5 days a week.
That is the Wisconsin culture and the same culture that can get you arrested or shot.
I would even lay more money on the fact that back in the 40s, 50s, 60s, etc that there was as much if not more partying going on. Only then it all get swept up under the rug, no one got DUIs and the worst case scenarios seldom made it to the media as it really happened.
Like Life, there are those in my examples that go to the extreme and those that don't go out at all. My only point being us Wisconsinites have the worst culture of any when it comes to partying with our friends when we run into good fortune and many will do it for years while others putter out. Its doesn't take making it big for us to go out and party like big Dogs during our younger days, its just the culture.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 24, 2021 at 04:23 am
Agreed. Most of the problems aren't even related (strictly speaking) to suddenly having money, though that can make things somewhat more likely.
The problems tend to be DUIs, drugs, and assault, domestic and otherwise. These charges happen at all ages and socioeconomic statuses. However, I gather that the stats suggest young men are involved in these things to a disproportionate degree, and that includes young men with and without money. There are 2,000 players in the NFL.
Bearmeat
June 23, 2021 at 07:46 am
When Adams skill set declines, it will be fast. Explosion is his game and physical explosiveness is the first athletic skill to decline. I’d bet Davante is at the top of his game for 1-2 more years. I’d bet he knows this too. And money is green everywhere.
So I won’t panic if ARod actually retires. (They won’t trade him until next March) And I won’t panic if Davante refuses to come back to Green Bay. But I’d bet Davante takes the bird in the hand.
mrtundra
June 23, 2021 at 08:06 am
I doubt DA stays in GB, if Rodgers leaves. No matter. When DA was injured and missed 6 games, over two years, GB won all 6 of those games. I think our WR group steps up and picks up the slack, if DA does leave. If DA does leave, because Rodgers left GB, someone in the front office should be made to suffer the consequences, IMO. I think Rodgers will stay in GB and show up for Training Camp, at some point. Rodgers just came off an MVP season, so everyone worrying about his absence from OTAs and Mini Camps should just chill. We will see what kind of magic Russ Ball can come up with to find DA the money he is looking for. If Rodgers is back, DA stays. I think we will have both players on the roster and in GB, when Training Camp begins.
Koostyroosty
June 23, 2021 at 08:29 am
Al, the Packers media Guide has those numbers under "Packers Team Records". The 2003 team holds the record with 2558. The other 4 listed are 1962 - 2460; 1961- 2350; 1964 - 2276 & 1963 - 2248. The Polluted Mindset articles are my favorite and I look forward to them every week! Thanks!
LeotisHarris
June 23, 2021 at 08:41 am
Thanks, Koost! Wow, all the way back to the 1961-64 seasons after the 2003 team record. That's a sober reminder of all the three yards and a cloud of dust years we suffered through. Here's a wrap-around draw coming at ya for old times sake.
dobber
June 23, 2021 at 08:55 am
Remember that the schedule was shorter, then (1960s), too.
PeteK
June 23, 2021 at 12:01 pm
1960--12 games--179.2 per game,1962--14 games--175.7 per, 2003--16-- 159.9 good catch by you Dob.
CheesyTex
June 23, 2021 at 02:25 pm
I wasn't suffering a bit watching Hornung, Taylor, and the famed Packers Sweep (not to mention Gregg, Skoronski, Kramer, et al).
JerseyAl
June 23, 2021 at 01:00 pm
Thanks for info and the kind words!
croatpackfan
June 24, 2021 at 04:06 am
When man is right (Koostyroosty), he is right! Do not be so humble, Al.
Roadrunner23
June 23, 2021 at 08:41 am
Al
I believe the Packers will keep Five Tight Ends and here is why:
Mercedes Lewis (as good as he is) is probably in his final season with the Packers so they need to keep developing the younger talent.
Tonyan will be signed to a multi year extension eventually.
Dafney and Degura are H-Backs and the Packers will probably bring Degura along slowly after the knee injury. Plus Dafney showed his special teams chops last season and we know special teams are going to be emphasized this year....finally.
Sternberger being a 3rd round draft choice and on a rookie contract will be given every chance to redeem himself after his two game suspension.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers kept one less receiver in favor of 5 Tight Ends this year with the bigger body types being favors on special teams.
As for Davante Adams, he’s not going anywhere and neither is Rodgers.
Super Bowl!
Go Pack!
dobber
June 23, 2021 at 09:07 am
Hard to say on Lewis. They signed him to a two-year deal.. I think many presumed they did that to push out his hit (there are voidable years, too), but it feels more like a true two-year deal, especially after a couple of 1-year contracts for Lewis. He asked for that second year, and the bonus money certainly implies that the Packers are interested in that second year. I think he would likely need to decline badly this year to not have a spot on the 2022 roster waiting for him (if he wants it).
Given that four of those 5 TEs are under contract for 2022 and only one WR is under contract for 2022 (AmRod), I think they are unlikely to give away a WR spot too readily. Have we heard anything recently (or even not so recently) about the Packers and Adams talking an extension? Here's the last I've heard...
https://dairylandexpress.com/2021/03/15/green-bay-packers-davante-adams-...
...but if that extension were really moving anywhere, I suspect we would have heard more about it by now...and there's not much but crickets on that front. It's clear that having that done sooner rather than later would clear up remaining 2021 cap issues for the Packers. Maybe Adams is waiting to see how the QB1 fiasco pans out...but the closer we get to the start of the 2021 season with nothing happening here, the less likely Adams is to be a Packer in 2022.
Roadrunner23
June 23, 2021 at 09:28 am
You make some very thoughtful points Dobber, it will be an interesting camp for sure.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 10:49 am
I'm guessing Mercedes Lewis is all in this year, and so is Matt LaFleur with our "All Gas No Fucking Brake" running game. We will want Mercedes around for that. No doubt.
PatB
June 23, 2021 at 03:59 pm
IMO that could happen if both Sternberger and Dafney have solid preseasons, but neither of them is a lock yet.
Coldworld
June 24, 2021 at 06:04 am
Daffney is a much better ST player and is also capable of playing fullback as well as backing up Deguara at H back. I suspect that gives him an edge in terms of making the roster.
Since'61
June 23, 2021 at 10:00 am
Al in 2003 the Packers rushed for 2558 yards led by Ahman Green's 1883 rushing yards. I think that is the team record for rushing in a season. (See statsmuse.com) I will continue to look into this but I doubt the Packers had more yards in another season. Back in the Lombardi years the seasons were only 14 games long and prior to that even shorter seasons.
Adams future in Green Bay will depend on the development of Love. The combination of Love's first season and the focus on the run in the MLF system will probably reduce receptions for all the receivers. In that case Adams will want to be part of a passing team and most likely would want to follow Rodgers. Rodgers could put Adams into the HOF.
Beyond that why would the Packers want to pay $20+ million to a WR when they don't need to in MLFs system as a run focused team. Adams had 115 receptions in 2020 in 14 games. That's 8 receptions per game. Adams is not likely to get as many receptions in an MLF system run by Love. So why pay him all that money? The packers can put the money into their DL and/or ILB position groups.
I don't think Adams will remain in Green Bay if Rodgers leaves but anything can happen, time will tell. Thanks, Since '61
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
June 23, 2021 at 09:10 am
Well said Since61!
Best comprehensive analysis which I 100% agree with. At a certain point it isnt about the money. Adam's knows he has an outside chance to be inducted into the Hall of Fame should he continue putting up great numbers. Adam's will play for less money if he can follow Rodgers and hold onto his coat tails. Conversely, Rodgers would want Adam's wherever he goes. This is why in my opinion the Packers should trade them both now because if Rodgers is traded next year the Packers likely lost Adam's without compensation.
Since'61
June 23, 2021 at 11:23 am
We agree Knock. Whether Rodgers is traded or retires I see Adams moving on to a passing team/QB that gives him the most $$$ and the best chance to reach the HOF. If he reaches FAs I don't think that the Packers will win or want to win a bidding war for Adams. Thanks, Since '61
Fabio
June 23, 2021 at 11:42 am
If AR doesn't come back and if the d is doing pretty well this season, then next year I would also switch to Front and look for an ILB in F to make this D elite. (It seems that whoever you put in the offense doesn't matter .... we have MLF that makes anyone play well ..... so they say)
marpag1
June 23, 2021 at 08:46 am
Players sign contracts for the money. ARod will have nothing to do with Davante's contract, wherever it is.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
June 23, 2021 at 09:16 am
Of course players sign for the money, particularly those not making the gazillion dollars. However, at a certain point in a SUPERSTARS career if they can go to the team of their choice (close to home, or the team has chance at a SB, or in the case of Adam's would be able to play with Rodger's again possibly providing him opportunity to HOF) he would take less $'s. He would still want to be 'respected' meaning money should be close.
PeteK
June 23, 2021 at 08:59 am
"After many a summer (winter) dies the swan", It could be a package deal with a trade or if Rod comes back a sign and trade for both in 2022. According to Pro football Reference, the team record is 2558 in 2003 (Green 1883, Davenport 420, Fisher 200--5.0 team avg.)., previous high was 1962- 2460 (Taylor 1474, Moore 377, Hornung 219--4.7 team avg.)
dobber
June 23, 2021 at 09:12 am
The only reason to do a sign-and-trade on Adams would be to keep other teams from bidding on him...and if I'm Adams, I don't sign and trade: I hit the open market and make the big coin. Adams has to be willing to sign to be part of that kind of deal, and at that stage when he can get on the market and have much more control, why would he?
We've only just entered the stage in the cap era where significant player-for-player deals are starting to happen (Goff/Stafford) in the NFL. Multi-big-contract players for other players still seems to be more the realm of MLB, the NBA, and fantasy football than reality.
PeteK
June 23, 2021 at 12:20 pm
Very true, I was just grasping on the second scenario. Three year extension with first two fully guaranteed ? I don't think that we can afford Rodgers, Adams, and Alexander. However, a decision like that is good news because it means all 3 had very good years. ????
BradHTX
June 23, 2021 at 12:50 pm
Najeh Davenport ran for 420 yards? That’s ironic.
It’s also a lot of trips to the laundry hamper.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 01:28 pm
Can we award bonus points here for Brad?
marpag1
June 23, 2021 at 03:49 pm
No, you don't get bonus points for crappy jokes.
Qoojo
June 23, 2021 at 10:11 am
I think it depends if the Packers are willing to pay Adams near QB money, and I guess it also depends on how much the rest of the WRs develop. Right now, the cupboard looks like it's stocked with a box of Captain Crunch and a bunch of bran cereal.
As far as rushing stats for team goes, did you try https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/green-bay-packers/stats/1940 ? It appears to only go back to 1940.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 11:10 am
Qoojo. Killin' it. Well done.
stockholder
June 23, 2021 at 11:07 am
The wind of change is in the air. If Rodger's goes, this team must get younger. Big money isn't the answer. The smart money has to go to the future. Failure should not be rewarded. No ring , No pay. If these guys couldn't win with Rodgers. No big money player; will be the solution either.
PeteK
June 23, 2021 at 01:02 pm
Yes, and much of it will depend on the play and development of the offensive line.
LambeauPlain
June 23, 2021 at 11:51 am
Training camp to build the final 55 is going to be fun to follow. Crowded, talented rooms at WR, TE, OL, RB, and CB.
With the parity of run/pass Matt plays to reinforce his "illusion of complexity", the TE and RB groups have expanded duties....with RBs being keys in the pass game and TEs tasked with helping to power the run game.
With the OL and QB, there are only 5 positions left on any given play. With so many plays with 2 TEs/1 RB, 2 RBs/1 TE...even 3 TEs with one as H back/1 RB...the days of MM calls with 4, even 3 WRs on a play are long over.
Could be 4 or 5 TEs and 4 RBs on the final 55 and only 5 WRs.
Leatherhead
June 24, 2021 at 08:11 pm
I think we’ll still see the 3-1-1 Pistol with Lewis and Jones. It gives us the best matchups for run and pass.
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 12:13 pm
According to a Fox News report, in a recent interview with Davante Adams, he mentioned that the Packers and his agent are in discussions on a contract extension.
Where that goes, who knows? He seemed to be talking up his leadership role on this team, and did say he would return to taking all the reps in TC. "I'll be there ready to rock."
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/packers-davante-adams-aaron-rodgers-contr...
dobber
June 23, 2021 at 01:03 pm
Thanks, GG.
""That’ll play into it, but there’s been talks, just really just talks, but we haven’t really done anything or talked about anything that’s worth mentioning," he said. "It’s kind of just been the beginning stage of talking, and we’ll figure out what happens. Hopefully, something gets figured out, but I’m just there to play ball either way. That stuff will take care of itself eventually.""
greengold
June 23, 2021 at 01:25 pm
Ha! Yeah, no probs. That interview is loaded with quotes... seemed committal, yet, non-committal... and then, this:
"I think everybody’s mindset, everybody is going to love Aaron the same way when he returns, and obviously it’s been a little bit of a confusing situation but there hasn’t been any negative talk or anything like that. Everybody’s behind him."
packer132
June 23, 2021 at 10:07 pm
Adams will be at training camp, and I doubt if any contract is worked out with him. I think he hits the open market after the year and will have no problem getting $25-$28 million a year. Packers really can't afford him. Rodgers will show up after training camp just prior to week #1 and hopefully is not a cancer with the team. Packers trade him after the season, as more teams will have the need next spring rather than this late in the year.
TarynsEyes
June 23, 2021 at 12:14 pm
The best rushing year was 2003 with 507 attempts and 2558 yards this goes back to 1941 and I stopped.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/1974.htm
I started in 1974 and went forward and back.
Oppy
June 23, 2021 at 05:27 pm
Re: Davante Adams
The catch-22 here is that if Rodgers goes, Adams may not want to stay in Green Bay, but if Rodgers stays, there's virtually no way the Packers can afford to pay Adams anyways.
Rodgers needs to be traded next season or this entire team falls apart, contract by contract.