Interconnected Fates: The 2023 Packers Season Is Tied to the Jets

Rodgers tries to get a second ring elsewhere

There is no way around it. The 2023 Green Bay Packers season is tied to what happens with the New York Jets. Frequently, when a Packers writer or fan talks about Aaron Rodgers on their platform, some get upset. "He's not a Packer anymore, let's change the subject." While this is true to a point, the outcome of the Jets season has a big impact over the Packers for multiple reasons. Let's explore them.

The pick

The obvious and indisputable one is the draft effect, and this happens for two reasons. The first one is how much Aaron Rodgers will be able to play. When the Packers and the Jets agreed to the trade, the conditional part was, by and large, less significant than was expected, as there are no individual or team performance conditions. However, Rodgers still needs to play at least 65% of the New York Jets offensive snaps for the Green Bay Packers to receive a first-round pick next year. That means if Rodgers gets hurt for a significant period of time, the Packers will receive just a second-rounder.

"Next year's pick was very important to me, as well," Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said after completing the deal. "Aaron's such a great player, has meant so much to this organization, and if we were going to move on from him, I thought we needed to get something of fair value back that could help this football team. Not only this year but in years to come, and I think we were able to accomplish that."

From a cold perspective and thinking about results, the ideal scenario is that Rodgers stays healthy, but the Jets lose as many games as possible — a scenario similar to what happened with the Denver Broncos, who ended up giving away the fifth overall pick to the Seattle Seahawks after a terrible season for Russell Wilson. It can't be so bad that the Jets are eliminated so early, in which case they could bench Rodgers to avoid giving up a first — but this is an extremely unlikely scenario.

The narrative around the franchise

The other reason, and this one is much more subjective, is about the narrative around the Packers. There is a national perception that the Packers failed to accomplish and win more with Aaron Rodgers. The “only two Super Bowls in 30 years of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers” thing. Well, imagine how worse it would have been if the Vikings had won the Super Bowl in 2009. If Rodgers goes to the Jets and succeeds in his task of winning a second ring, there would be infinite questions about the Packers roster-building, the people management, and how they handled the relationship with the star quarterback. Deservedly so, there would be questions about why the Packers didn’t go all-in with their veteran QB instead of drafting his replacement in 2020, which would also be tied to Jordan Love’s performance during his first year as a full-time starter.

There are two examples of that. The biggest and most recent is Tom Brady, who left the New England Patriots after the 2019 season. Brady got his wishes with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, something the Patriots weren’t willing to do, and the approach paid off for Tampa, with a Super Bowl run. The Patriots, meanwhile, haven’t won a playoff game since. Something similar happened to the Indianapolis Colts, however after a much more understandable decision, moving on from an injured Peyton Manning to get a truly generational prospect in Andrew Luck.

If the Jets season goes sideways, it would be much easier for the Packers to justify their decision to move on from Rodgers, even if Love isn’t great right away.

It’s impossible for the Packers to ever forget Aaron Rodgers, as he is one of the greatest and best players in franchise history. But this year, in particular, what Rodgers and the Jets do during the season will have a real impact for the Packers, whether you like it or not.

Photo: Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Wendell Ferreira covers the Green Bay Packers for Zone Coverage and Cheesehead TV. He is a Brazilian journalist with over a decade of experience covering the NFL, soccer, NBA, and MMA. Follow him on twitter at @wendellfp  

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6 points
 

Comments (49)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
stockholder's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:14 am

Very Good Points.
Terrific Article.

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EnemyTerritory's picture

June 20, 2023 at 09:29 pm

I fail to see how this comment deserves thumbs down.

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T7Steve's picture

June 21, 2023 at 07:22 am

I think it's one of his better posts too.

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GregC's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:33 am

You've said it all, Wendell. I have nothing to add. Except that one night recently I had a dream that it was the first week of the season, and the Packers were off to a rough start, then they showed a highlight of Aaron Rodgers throwing a TD pass to give the Jets an early lead. It was stressful. I was relieved when I woke up.

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Coldworld's picture

June 20, 2023 at 05:51 pm

You are recalling the first weeks of 2008.

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Savage57's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:59 am

Hopefully we'll see another gut-wrenching loss, but this time in the AFCCG.

13 points
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BubbaOne's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:00 pm

Nah, then we'd get a 28th to 30th pick. Wendell's right, we want Jets to have poor record but Rodgers plays 65% of O snaps.

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mnbadger's picture

June 20, 2023 at 12:28 pm

I agree totally with the substance of the article.
I totally disagree with the title - " . . . The 2023 Packers Season Is Tied to the Jets"
a couple of observations:
We don't play the jets
We aren't in the same division as the jets
We aren't even in the same conference as the jets.
Our season is on a parallel, non-connected path to the jets.
here's to ar8 playing 2/3 of the snaps for a team that doesn't win a game!
GPG!

12 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 20, 2023 at 12:43 pm

He HAS to keep playing if they aren't mathematically eliminated. WAIT! That was last season when he didn't see any reason to practice with his new receivers.

It actually gives Love two full camps with them. Maybe Rodgers was looking out for our future of the Packers after all.

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marpag1's picture

June 20, 2023 at 12:49 pm

Surely everyone has to know that the Packers draft pick is conditional upon ARod's playing time (and not the number of wins), and so the Packers have an obvious interest in what happens there. But to say that the Packers SEASON is tied to the Jets is a truly absurd comment. There's a hell of a lot more to a season than figuring out where a conditional pick will land.

If the Packers win the Super Bowl, what the hell do the Jets have to do with anything?

Or if the Packers shed an onerous QB contract and the 39 year old diva who owned it, and get out from under a crippling cap situation and set themselves up for future success, what do the Jets matter?

Even if the Packers struggle, but it is clear that they have found their long-term QB of the future, no one in Green Bay should give a damn about the Jets, even if they win the Super Bowl.

And are we really worried about this "public perception?" Give me a break. Viking fans, Justin Jones, Skip Bayless and Mike Florio aren't going to like you one way or the other. Get used to it.

SOMEONE is going to win the Super Bowl next year. Either it will be A) the Packers, or B) someone else. And if it's not the Packers, I really couldn't care less who "B" is. Well... not the Vikings anyway.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:01 pm

Thumbs up Marp!

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LeotisHarris's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:15 pm

Can't argue with you, Marp. I think Wendell had a nice idea for an article, and he made some good points, but he cut off his ear to spite his foot with the lede. It's tough to recover once that happens.

8 points
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NickPerry's picture

June 21, 2023 at 05:39 am

"Or if the Packers shed an onerous QB contract and the 39 year old diva who owned it, and get out from under a crippling cap situation and set themselves up for future success, what do the Jets matter?"

This SAYS IT ALL!!

THIS is what Aaron Rodgers had done to the Packers. Granted, Murphy and Company gave him the damn thing in the first place, but all the other CRAP, that was all Rodgers.

Oh, the part about the Vikings is pretty F'ing cool too!

1000 Thumbs UP!!!

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10ve 💚's picture

June 21, 2023 at 08:00 pm

👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏

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splitpea1's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:12 pm

Miscellaneous notes:

I would think the path to that second ring is a lot more difficult in the AFC as opposed to the NFC. With the acquisition of Rodgers, the Jets have vaulted to either sixth or seventh (depending on which site you check) in the odds outlook. Still, it would be very tough getting through a thicket of experienced playoff teams.... Curiously enough, the Lions are ranked either ninth or tenth--so that shows you how much offense rules the roost these days.

The Vikings were an eyelash away from at least getting to the Super Bowl, and would have had an excellent shot of winning it if it hadn't been for our old friend executing the most bone-headed play of his career. I remember hearing audio clips of the Vikings broadcasters describing the action, and the air went out of them quicker than a pricked balloon after the interception.

To be honest, I would probably root for Rodgers if the Jets were to make the Super Bowl. I don't have any bitterness. Players move on, and it's better to get excited about the guys we have now and how they develop in order to make our next run.

The scenario with the Broncos and Russell Wilson isn't likely to happen with the Jets due to better and more harmonious coaching, and a blend of talented young players to go along with a couple of Rodgers' trusted friends signing up.

Unless the Jets offensive line completely flops at pass protection or Rodgers suffers a freak injury, we will get that first round pick--although it's probably going to be on the back end. It would be great if our own first round pick was a bit late too, because that means we're moving along nicely with our rebuilding efforts.

9 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:20 pm

"I remember hearing audio clips of the Vikings broadcasters describing the action, and the air went out of them quicker than a pricked balloon after the interception."

It's one of my go-tos when I'm having a bad day. Never gets old:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UUeqvquXZI

13 points
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splitpea1's picture

June 20, 2023 at 03:14 pm

Yes, that's the one!

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Tundraboy's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:21 pm

Thanks. Enjoyed that immensely!

1 points
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TarynsEyes's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:10 pm

Interconnected?
Rodgers is no longer a Packer.
His contract is now the Jet's concern.
MLF is free.
The ball is in Love's hands.

Sorry, but the value of a conditional draft pick does not leave me feeling interconnected. Rodgers is now, like any other who left the Packers, inconsequential to what this team does going forward.

Every article that is about Rodgers seems more like regret, or has Rodgers donned the chains of Jacob Marley paying nighttime visits. Will the weekly play of Rodgers hold more credence and article space here than that of Love? Let's move on, and keep Rodgers out of mind here, since that was what near all wanted.

18 points
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TXCHEESE's picture

June 20, 2023 at 03:07 pm

Well said Taryn...the only thing I'm interested in is 65% playing time. Otherwise this feels too much like someone keeping up with their snowflake ex.

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bottlefliper's picture

June 23, 2023 at 07:06 am

Funny, today they would have called Lombardi a snowflake, because he was strong, smart, ahead of time with great views of life in general. So everything is the wrong way. The strong are snowflakes and the cowards and cowns are.....great people. Strange.
But if you want a great example of a real sowflake you just check the Jets QB

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mnbadger's picture

June 27, 2023 at 10:19 pm

Brave post but ironic in its accuracy.
GPG

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PatrickGB's picture

June 21, 2023 at 10:13 am

Damn straight Taryn!

1 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:58 pm

I dont even care about the draft pick. I just want to watch the Rodgers experiment go up in flames. I can think of no player more deserving of a serious helping of humble pie.

8 points
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TarynsEyes's picture

June 20, 2023 at 03:04 pm

I can certainly understand your hope for humble pie for Rodgers, but it would seem that the infamous chip on his shoulder so proudly once heralded is now being ignored.

6 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 21, 2023 at 09:58 am

How can he be having the time of his life and be angry too? The answer is he cant. Hes too caught up in being swooned over.

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TarynsEyes's picture

June 21, 2023 at 12:02 pm

So, you find it hard to believe that Rodgers can enjoy where he's now at and not still be angry with GB?

I've gone my whole life being happy as heck while being angry at specific things, and people. I just never allowed the anger to dictate over my happiness.

Did you ever hold a grudge and still be happy? Sure you have.

The problem for this mindset is you believe Rodgers should be miserable because his world isn't just GB or its fans.

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 03:18 pm

This might cheer you up.

The Jets open at home against Buffalo. They also host KC and Philadelphia, and take a road trip to Dallas, all in the first part of the season. That's not exactly a bunch of weaklings, and if you open 0-3 at home, that's not a very good start. I could easily see them in some very tough games before the break.

They're in a tough division, and they've got a tough home schedule early. I don't see anything easy for these guys until November, maybe.

10 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 03:07 pm

Thank you Leotis. That did cheer me up. I laughed so hard when that happened that my ribs hurt for two days. Predicted all year long by yours truly....I KNEW he was going to crash their season.

Worst case scenario: Rodgers gets injured, the Jets suck, and we only get their 2nd round pick, which will probably be in the 40s. Most likely is that he'll play well enough and the Jets will make the playoffs and we'll get a pick around 25. Best case is that Rodgers meets the quota and the Jets still suck and we get a higher first round pick.

Either way, I just don't care. It's all free beer. PLUS we took a huge step towards reestablishing fiscal sanity, which was seriously needed. AND we upgraded the position, IMO. This just looks like win-win-win for the Packers.

10 points
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mnbadger's picture

June 20, 2023 at 10:13 pm

You had me at "it's all free beer."
One of the best posts all off-season.
GPG!

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Leatherhead's picture

June 21, 2023 at 02:32 pm

Thank you.

I think we transitioned to a younger guy with more of an upside at QB, and in the process, received Luke Musgrave for him. I think Musgrave will be producing TDs for us after the guy we traded for him is out of the league. As far as next year......I'll enjoy that next year, when we're talking about having the 24th and 25th picks in the draft.

What is going to make that scenario even more enjoyable to me is how it's going to fit the narratives that the people running the show don't know what they're doing. That's gonna be tasty cheese sauce AND free beer.

2 points
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HarryHodag's picture

June 20, 2023 at 04:46 pm

"Green Bay Packers to receive a first-round pick next year. That means if Rodgers gets hurt for a significant period of time, the Packers will receive just a second-rounder."
---
A pure "Kiperized" comment. Think of this: if the Jets make it deep into the playoffs, the difference between a number 1 and a second rounder won't be that much. C. Watson was a second round pick. He could tear up the league this year. Did it really make that much difference whether he was a first rounder? If the Packers get an extra two regardless, they will have three picks in the top 64 players in the land. The draft is not the be-all and end-all of rebuilding though it is important.

Regardless of what the 'narrative' is, the Packers went all-in, got left out, and are in full rebuilding mode. Not only did Rodgers exit, but many of his pals too.

It's time to put this statement on this off-season: "Aaron who?"

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 06:52 pm

If Rodgers played the season, and the Jets missed the playoffs, they'd be drafting 17th or lower and that's a real premium pick. If they made the playoffs, but didn't advance much, (most probable, all things considered) they'd be around 24. If Rodgers didn't make the quota, and the Jets weren't very good, it'd be around 42.

I have to disagree on the "full rebuild" mode stuff. We've replaced the QB with a guy who's been preparing 3 years. . We return the rest of the backfield. We return Watson, Doubs, Deguara, and the entire offensive line. Most of the defense is back.

It looks to me like most of the guys most likely to be suited up were already on the team last year. And all the coaches. Replacing the QB does not equal a rebuild.

7 points
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Qoojo's picture

June 20, 2023 at 05:09 pm

But it's not tied to the Jets season in anyway. Something totally out of their control determines the round of the pick next year. Even if the Jets win the superbowl, it just shows that AR was more motivated with the Jets. He has already done more offseason work this year than in the past 2 or 3 years.

Also, I have no issue if AR wins another superbowl, as long as it's not against packers. I don't hate the guy.

4 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 21, 2023 at 07:31 am

Yes. We have to wish him the best, health and career wise. He's a Packer that will be in the ring of honor someday. He's not making the HOF or retiring as a Jet.

1 points
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TxFred's picture

June 20, 2023 at 05:15 pm

I can't wait to see how the coastal elitists writers & sniffs tolerate AR's self serving play & post game limp answers. Fun to watch. Wonder how long Iong before they through him under the bus, the "honeymoon" should be short lived. GPG!!!!

-3 points
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Coldworld's picture

June 20, 2023 at 05:49 pm

And if Rodgers wins with the Jets, would that mean he would have won here? Until he tore his bicep in game ten, Favre was lighting it up with the Jets. Did that make it a mistake to have moved on from Favre? Was it in 2009? 2010?

Sorry, the only relevance of Rodgers is 65% of the snaps to get us a first rounder and insight into the main culprit of the dumpster fire O we saw run last year—LaFleur, Rodgers or just the combination? This season could very well see both vindicated or consigned to league history, not merely the Packers.

What this season is is the chance to see if LaFleur is the genius wasted on Rodgers or the pretender who wasted Rodgers last years as a Packer, even more than it’s about Love.

8 points
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NitschkeFan's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:49 pm

I know it seems unpopular with the posts here but except for the fact that I hope the Packer's get a higher 1st round pick (with Jets having a poor record), overall I usually feel hopeful and want success for former Packers who I feel an attachment to. Recent years a few examples, I keep an eye on players like Corey Linsley and like to see him do well with the Chargers, Davante and his 1,500 yard season for the Raiders was pleasant to me. Before that Micah Hyde I regretted that we lost him but was happy he played at Pro Bowl level for the Bills for several years.

I could go on with many more examples but as long as they were not playing for the Bears or Vikings I generally cheer for former Packers and I realize it is kind of irrational but I feel like I know the guys and keep cheering for them. The Lions have been irrelevant for so long I don't mind seeing guys like Jamaal Williams have a good season in 2022.

Going way back, I wanted Favre to do well when he was with the Jets but obviously wanted the Packers to beat the snot out of him when he joined the Vikings.

7 points
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mnbadger's picture

June 20, 2023 at 10:21 pm

I'm right there with you Ray!
Go Packers and best of luck to former Packers!
GPG!

5 points
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NoNonsense's picture

June 21, 2023 at 12:50 am

I wish the man good health this season and continued success in ... 2024!

No matter how much you like the guy or want to see 12 succeed you gotta hope he plays all year and they just don't win many games.

4 points
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Turophile's picture

June 21, 2023 at 04:18 am

The Packers season is not tied to the Jets. What the Jets do and how well they play is pretty irrelevant to how the Packers season plays out.

Do the Jets affect the Packers AFTER the season, well yes, it determines the draft pick the Packers get, tied to Rodgers playing time, but I can't say I care about this because, well, Que Sera Sera (Doris Day 1956).

To be honest I don't care how many games the Jets win or lose - I'm a Packer fan and it is their results I pay attention to.

As for the hindsight after the season on whether the Packers should have moved on..............like most 20/20 observations it makes no difference. The dice have already been rolled - and whether they turn up double sixes or snake eyes doesn't alter what was done.

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 21, 2023 at 07:38 am

Now you have me singing "what ever will be, will be"! Can't get it out of my head. LOL

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 21, 2023 at 11:22 am

Now I'm singing "can't get it out of my head". You have me night and day, day and night.

1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

June 21, 2023 at 10:52 am

My preference would have been for the article to conclude after the 4th sentence. However, Wendell is a fine writer so a few comments.

"....there would be questions about why the Packers didn’t go all-in with their veteran QB instead of drafting his replacement in 2020."

There were over $150 Million reasons that they did go "all in" with their veteran QB. And he left $40 Million residual reasons of dead cap behind as an exclamation point. To my knowledge...I don't believe Rodgers ever offered to shave HIS salary demands to add more "all in" parts to the team.

"Brady got his wishes with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers..." The bulk of Bradys wishes were in place when he arrived in Tampa. The defense was loaded and well coached. Years of drafting in the top end of rounds filled the roster with top players. He brought in Gronk, etc...but the Bucs defense led the team to the SB. Brady was the final piece as a solid field general.

Rodgers is entering into a similar situation with the Jets. Here is where the comparisons should be. How did Rodgers compare to the GOAT during his NFL Swan Song?

The Packers? Their only tie to the Jets this season is if Rodgers takes 65% of the snaps on O. That's it. And that tie is a thread of silly string...it will either be a low 1st or a high 2nd. That's pretty much it.

Let us please now embrace Wendell's 4th sentence of the article.

2 points
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Charvid's picture

June 22, 2023 at 07:57 am

There are 2 reasons for Packer fans to be interested in the Jets season;
1) AR’s snap percentage which determines whether we get a #1 or a #2.

2) The Jets’ overall record which determines the draft ORDER.

There is no way I want to see the Jets in the AFCCG…that means a lower pick in whichever round on the 2024 pick we get from them.

We want them to be competitive enough to keep AR on the field and still suck as much as possible!

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 22, 2023 at 10:32 am

Charvid, if they won the freakin' Super Bowl, we'd still get pick 32. If they make the playoffs and don't advance it'll be in the low 20s. That's the difference.

Basically, it's like a bar that's giving you a free Pabst and you're complaining it's not a Heineken. We're getting this pick for a player we don't need anymore. I don't care if we get 22 or 28 or 50 or whatever. Naturally, I'd like the highest possible pick...the Heineken, but if I have to settle for Pabst, that'll be fine too.

Nothing that happens in Jersey has any impact on our season this year. Nothing. Next draft, if they win the Super Bowl without Rodgers getting his 65%, we'll get pick 64. If Rodgers plays his 65%, we'll get 32. If they Jets miss the playoffs.....always a possibility and they play in a tough division....then we'll get #17 or higher. If the stars aligned just right, we might even get a Top 10 pick.

But the most probable outcome, IMO, is they'll make the playoffs, not advance much, and we'll get a pick around #24.

1 points
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mnbadger's picture

June 22, 2023 at 12:59 pm

I'd move the PBR ahead of Heineken if it's in one of those old, brown, keg shaped bottles.
One of the earliest applications of the twist off top that I can remember.
But then, I was probably only 16 or 17 when I started drinking it. I made some bad decisions when I was young, PBR wasn't one of them.
GPG!

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 22, 2023 at 01:53 pm

Born and raised on PBR. Have to say it was always the last beer left in the fridge. Unless I drank em fast.

1 points
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bottlefliper's picture

June 23, 2023 at 06:57 am

We all know we had just one title with AR because of him. After 2011 was not special at all in big games. As bigger the game as worse AR has been. And that was not because of the lack of help, it was because of him.
He got more help than most if not all top 10QBs. Good D, good o-lone, lot of weapons. So dont buy this BS, it was all on AR. With any other QB, a strong one, who is also a leader and not a blamer, we would had way better spirit and chemistry.

1 points
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