Packers Periscope: Bye Week Edition
By jasonperone
The Past
Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone after the Packers raced out to a 4-1 start to a promising season. Enough said.
The Present
Green Bay has reached the all-important bye week and it's all-important because this team always seems to be in dire need of some extra time to get players healed. They appear headed towards being the healthiest that they've been, in terms of number of players hurt.
The irony is that the one injury the Packers couldn't afford to happen, happened. Aaron Rodgers seemed to hint, earlier this week, that he had as many as 13 screws inserted to help his broken collarbone heal. That would also suggest that there are still plenty of questions about if and when Rodgers might return this season.
With the biggest uncertainty still lingering, the question is: how confident is your outlook for this Packers team? What do you see in the periscope lens?
It's not ideal that the loss of one player makes such a significant impact on such a promising season. The problem is, that one guy is the reason there was so much promise. Can the defense mitigate the loss and help this team stay afloat until Rodgers hopefully returns? Will Brett Hundley improve enough that the Packers might overachieve?
Over the past two weeks, the answer to those questions seems to be a resounding "no". There is still time for the defense to gel but the way things have been looking, they need a lot more gel. The Packers are giving up 23 points per game, tied for 19th-best in the NFL.
There have been several bright spots on the defensive side of the ball. Mike Daniels, Kenny Clark, Blake Martinez, Damarious Randall, Clay Matthews and Nick Perry have all been above average players. At times, Davon House, Josh Jones and Kevin King have all shown up to the party.
With a list of contributors that long, it would seem that the Green Bay defense has been able to keep their team in games. The inability to get off the field on third down has spoiled that effort. The defense hasn't lacked play making ability, however. Two interceptions in last week's game against the New Orleans Saints produced no points by the offense.
But then there has been the issue of some very poor tackling and way too many pre-snap errors that have led to blown coverages and players confused as to where they need to be. The debate has lingered about how much of that falls on the defensive coaches and coordinator Dom Capers. Judging by what I'm seeing on social media, the "fire Capers" hashtag appears alive and well.
One area that will be a key after the bye week is safety. Morgan Burnett needs to return healthy and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix needs to heal (if he's hurt) and/or elevate like he was expected to from the get go this season. Clinton-Dix has looked like he is sleepwalking over the past few weeks, prompting speculation that he's dealing with an injury of some kind.
A staple of Capers' scheme is creating pressure from different areas and creating confusion for the offense. With the installment of the "Nitro package", it would seem that there is some opportunity to get the safeties more involved in rushing the passer. It's a stretch to hope for the days of LeRoy Butler bearing down on a quarterback, but it seems like some of the talents of Clinton-Dix and Josh Jones are being overlooked.
On the offensive side, I mentioned the failed attempts to convert turnovers into points. There have also been some bad interceptions thrown by Hundley, who has admittedly faced a fair amount of pressure.
The offensive line hasn't been healthy all season long and they've had to lean on Justin McCray and Lucas Patrick at one time or another. But it appears that tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari should be good to go following the bye. Hopefully Lane Taylor isn't far behind.
It goes without saying that the Packers have enough to worry about without adding in continuing or new health issues. If they can keep guys off of the injury list, the number of games Green Bay can win should increase, if only by one or two games.
Running back Aaron Jones has been the biggest surprise for the Packers this season. Jones won't single-handedly help replace the lost magic of Rodgers, but he certainly takes some heat off of Hundley and opens up some easier passing opportunities for Hundley.
If nothing else this season, the Packers may have found their regular running back of the future and freed up Ty Montgomery to baffle defenses in other ways. If only Rodgers were healthy to take full advantage of those opportunities.
Above all, the play of Hundley is going to be the biggest factor in how this Packers team fares after the break. Head Coach Mike McCarthy shouldered much of the blame for the offense's lackluster showing following the Saints game and on second glance, he was justified in doing so. His biggest miss was taking the ball out of Hundley's hands until too late.
Asking Hundley to throw it 40 times was never going to be a solid strategy, but it became too obvious that the Packers were going to run, run and run some more and play it very conservative in throwing. That made the Saints' job too easy on defense. A disappointing approach by the "highly successful NFL head coach".
The Future
How many games do the Packers need to win in order to stay in postseason contention? Some might argue that if Rodgers isn't returning that the answer to that question is "it doesn't matter". If Rodgers can come back before season's end, that number could be as few as four.
My prediction as of right now is that, much like 2013, we'll all be hinging on the "Aaron Rodgers update" every week and hoping for better-than-expected news. This season is another reminder and proof that Rodgers is likely the most pivotal player in the NFL.
It seems like a long shot that he can return and recreate the magic of the end of 2013. I can't rule Rodgers out as he's done it before but I also don't want to allow myself to cling to an unknown hope. I guess we all best buckle up and enjoy what there is of the ride that is the 2017 season.
-------------------
Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts. You can follow him on Twitter here
Comments (22)
EdsLaces
October 27, 2017 at 06:31 am
I'm excited to actually watch football this weekend and not have to live in the misery of defeat. More bye weeks please!
NickPerry
October 27, 2017 at 06:41 am
For me the choice is easier if I take my Green and Gold tinted glasses off and take a sip of reality. Even if Rodgers was to come back this team is not winning a SB with that defense OR without home field advantage. I DO NOT want to be teased again and just make the playoffs, only to watch Capers defense be slaughtered yet again. Nope, NO THANKS!
The Packers have a ton of needs IMO they need to address in the next draft. With 4 comp picks and a pick around the 10th spot of each round, and a few smart FA additions they just might be able to address some of those needs and make a run at a few Superbowl's before Rodgers retires.
Rodgers can win another 2 or 3 Superbowl's if he has a "Team" around him he doesn't have to literally carry all by himself. I choose the future. GO PACK GO!
flackcatcher
October 27, 2017 at 06:53 pm
You'll have to pry my Green and Gold Tinted Glasses from my COLD DEAD HANDS.....
RCPackerFan
October 27, 2017 at 07:48 am
Any team with an ELITE QB, the team will struggle without them. Even teams without a good QB will struggle.
Rodgers is so good that he changes everything. He changes the way defenses play them. He changes the way opposing offenses play them. He is the best player in the league for a reason.
The biggest problem this year has been the injuries. Not even including Rodgers our team has been hit hard with injuries. We have yet to start all 5 starters on the OL and have them finish the game. We finally had our starting CB's start a game and finish it. We lost our QB of the defense. Its not a coincidence that our defense has struggled with miscommunication since Burnett got injured. He is one of our best players on defense, and is very underrated.
Also Brooks has been out which hasn't helped our pass rush.
Beyond the injuries I think we have been out coached as well. Capers has been to slow to react to what teams are doing, for example sticking with 2 DL even though we are getting ran all over.
McCarthy's game plan was solid going into the Saints game. The plan to run, do play action and trying to not force Hundley to throw for a win was sound. The problem was the individual play calls was bad during the game. On a 3rd and long play, he decided to roll out Hundley and only send out 2 receivers out for routes. He kept 2 receivers in to help block and the Saints only rushed 4. But by rolling him out he cut the field in half and 3 WR's against 7 DB's. There was no where to go with the ball. Then the drive right after the Saints took the lead in the 4th quarter was terrible. Calling 2 toss plays to the short side of the field and then on 3rd and 10 not having a receiver running a 10 yard route? There was a lot of poor coaching decisions made during this game.
Going forward, I think we will see a big difference with the team coming out of the bye. I think McCarthy will be much better. I think the defense will be healthier and better.
I'm not worried about playoffs or anything right now. I'm also not throwing in the towel on the season. I would rather make the playoffs then not. If Rodgers can come back late in the year, and we have a playoff ready team waiting for him to return, who knows what can happen in the playoffs. I'd like to be in position to find out what can happen.
Until Rodgers injury I thought we were building a championship caliber team. The biggest problem had been the health of the team. The team should be healthier after the bye. I also think McCarthy and the coaches will have taken the time to come up with an offense to work around Hundley's strengths.
I'm going to enjoy the season no matter how well they do or don't do. I'm a diehard thru and thru. This is my team and I love them if they are good or bad. I'm not a bandwagon fan jumping off because they lose a few games.
We only get 16 days a year to watch the Packers play. I'm going to enjoy each and everyone of them.
GO PACK GO!!!
Johnblood27
October 27, 2017 at 09:14 am
Yo RC, you should have started this post with...
" It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."
billybobton
October 27, 2017 at 01:12 pm
the startings of a great writting....... then the injury bs again
AROD + 4 guards = 4 and 1
STARTING OL = 0 - 2
go back to the drawing board
TKWorldWide
October 27, 2017 at 08:11 am
Capers’ schemes certainly create confusion.
Unfortunately...anybody see where I’m going with this??
Point-Packer
October 27, 2017 at 08:46 am
Mike McCarthy may be the most predictable coach in the NFL.
TKWorldWide
October 27, 2017 at 05:55 pm
I knew you were going to say that.
Johnblood27
October 27, 2017 at 09:15 am
Mashed Potato Mike is a "Highly predictable NFL Coach"
Thegreatreynoldo
October 27, 2017 at 10:15 am
GB's defense has 4 above average players: Clark, Daniels, Martinez and Burnett. Perry probably is when he isn't wearing a club. Dix should be. CM3 isn't, won't be in the future, and hasn't been, above average for at least 2 seasons.
Brice, Josh Jones, King, and Dix have been below average.
If Perry and CM3 were both above average, we would have a pass rush. House is about average. [Edit: House, when healthy, has been above average. I had downgraded him to average due to availability issues, but he is up to 48% of snaps.]
Every other player who has played this season is below average. Maybe Ryan, since the coaches are only playing him in ways that suit his skillset, might reach average in limited snaps.
The good news is that the talent looks better than the production. King and J. Jones are rookies, Lowry, Hawkins, M. Evans, perhaps others have some potential upside, and we haven't seen M. Adams and Biegel.
RCPackerFan
October 27, 2017 at 09:29 am
What is funny is when you see fans making comments about Mathews and then you see analysts and stuff making comments about Mathews.
Fans - Mathews is terrible below average player.
Analysts - Mathews is having his best year in years.
So who is right?
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/cfni.gif
Thegreatreynoldo
October 27, 2017 at 10:20 am
Play nice, RC: I said CM3 isn't above average, not that he is terrible or even below average. I've often written that there are a number of things that CM3 does well, and that he is worth $7 to $8M per year.
As a matter of fact, I think he'd make a good off the ball LB in a 4-3. Tell me what you think of this link:
https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2017/10/26/16547494/packers-defense-s...
RCPackerFan
October 27, 2017 at 10:43 am
I know you didn't say he was terrible. But read around that is brought up a lot with Mathews. Is he perfect, no. But he is better then he gets credit for.
There is a lot of stuff in that article that I agree with. I brought up that I think the Capers uses 2 DL way to much. They were getting ran over a lot and they used 2 DL probably 80% of the time? I don't have the numbers or ability to track that.
The Defense I'd like to see is using 3 DL, Clark, Daniels and Lowry. Then having Perry as the OLB creating a 4 man front. Having Mathews playing ILB, but a hybrid. Allowing him to rush wherever. Then based on the offense either have Martinez or Jones/Burnett playing the other ILB spot.
Obviously it depends on the type of offense that is being ran and personnel that they have on, but this defense should be able to match up with most offenses with 2 WR's or less.
I still question if Capers does enough with the players they have. Or if he uses them the right way?
Hayward, Hyde and Peppers all of whom have left in the last couple of years have had monster years after leaving GB and were all 'ok' in GB.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 27, 2017 at 11:42 am
I know you read my posts, RC, and would probably remember what I've written about CM3. I was just kidding about the Be Nice comment. Yes, I like that alignment you suggested. It isn't too different from the suggestions put forth by Pauly. Brooks when he comes back can back up Perry, and Fackrell and Biegel can back up CM3 in the role you envisioned. [Okay, that should be Biegel and Fackrell can back up CM3: sometimes it is hard to let go when you like a prospect, and I really liked the Fackrell pick. Oh well.] It would be nice if Lowry would be the player you and I saw in preseason. I don't have a back up for Lowry with the current roster.
Just a thought: apparently TN can't do anything with Kevin Dodd. Bust as a rookie, 18 snaps this season despite being healthy. I liked this kid a lot, but worried about him in a 3-4. Dodd hasn't appeared on the Titan's injury list but has been inactive weeks 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7.
billybobton
October 27, 2017 at 01:15 pm
actually both are right
back at OLB he is a terrible to below average player, if the dipstick coaches left him inside he is much better and so is the team, it is no co in cid ence
and this year he is better outside than he was last year
Since'61
October 27, 2017 at 09:43 am
The future as far as this season is concerned is only 10 days away on Monday night against Detroit after the bye. As I have previously posted if the Packers can win that game they can win their next 2 games against the Bears and Ravens.
On offense we need to get our OL healthy and back. Then MM needs to allow Hundley to get the ball to our playmakers and we have a few in A. Jones, Monty, Cobb, Jordy, Adams, and yes, even Bennett if he actually catches the ball.
Secondly with or without Burnett our defense needs to play better starting with Dix and with Daniels. Daniels and Clark have shown the potential to penetrate and wreck an opponents game plan. Combine our DL with Brooks and CM3 on the edge and Martinez and Jones in the middle and we should be able to get pressure on the QB and contain the run game.
We can no longer expect 30+ points from our offense but it's not unreasonable to expect 17 - 24 points. Can our defense hold an opponent to under 17 points, probably not the Lions but yes to the Bears and Ravens.
Minimize turnovers on offense, make tackles and create turnovers on defense and we may have a chance.
We could be 7-3 or 4-6 after the next 3 games. I'm holding out for the 7-3. Thanks, Since '61
packerbackerjim
October 27, 2017 at 10:51 am
Imagine if TT had had the ability to sign Calais Campbell. Apparently his calculations don’t permit. I wonder how the defensive backfield would have looked. I guess we will never know.
Qoojo
October 27, 2017 at 11:40 am
This kind of says it all:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNCIlNBUQAAzMki.jpg
Years with top 10 defense:
Ben R 9
Brady 6
P Manning 5
E Manning 5
Rodgers 2
I think if you changed it to top 50% defense that the other numbers go up, and Rodgers is still at 2 or 3. Without Rodgers, TT and MM are probably gone 5 years ago.
billybobton
October 27, 2017 at 01:16 pm
where did all this hate and raven sucking opinion come from?
DD
October 28, 2017 at 08:35 am
Great points made in all analysis. Monday night, two weeks to prepare, division game, eye test will tell. If we lose this one I'm afraid the rest of the season is done. If so, MM, TT, and DC must go. Bring a new creative, energetic coaches. Rest Rodgers, then next year. I hate to say this cause I love the Pack. But I'm being realistic.
dobber
October 28, 2017 at 10:04 am
I just don't see MM being gone next year...even if this team only wins, say, 6 games. It could be that if a new GM is hired that he'll want his own guy. I just don't think MM will be let go.