The Past

After a disastrous game against the Denver Broncos, the Green Bay Packers will be hoping to replicate their last meeting with the Carolina Panthers, which the Packers won easily, 38-17.  In a game where the Panthers quickly abandoned their game plan of slowing down the Packers with a running game, Cam Newton threw 31 times, connecting only on half and was picked off once to go with one touchdown.  The Packers were quick to capitalize with Aaron Rodgers throwing for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns added 63 yards and a touchdown on the ground for Eddie Lacy. 

Such a dominant showing against the Panthers solidified the home field mystic at Lambeau in 2014, which continues through this season where the Packers are undefeated at home.  While this week’s game will be in Carolina, the Packers are hoping for similar results regardless of the venue. 

The Present

(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR.  And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)  

While you might think that the Packers DVOA would all fall drastically after the pummeling in Denver, in actuality both offense and defense only fell one spot due to how good DVOA thinks Denver is.  Naturally the pass defense took the biggest hit since Peyton Manning was uncharacteristically (or characteristically depending on your views) good, otherwise it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Broncos defense is very, very good and the Packers offense struggled as a result. 

In particular , the Packers passing offense, which was the least productive all year actually didn’t fall that much either based on the Broncos elite pass defense and still ranks 4^th in the league.   

The Future

The Panthers are in an enviable position where they have a young nucleus of players (mostly on defense) and haven’t spent too much in free agency where their future salary cap is clouded.  Add to that the Panthers probably won’t need to spend big money until 2017 when Luke Kuechly and Star Lotulelei become unrestricted free agents.  Usually teams with high amounts of salary cap are pretty bad (see Jacksonville and Oakland) but having lots of core players with a low salary cap is usually an indication of a successful rebuild.

That being said, the Panther’s best shot at winning a Super Bowl likely are in the next couple years, in a sense the Panthers are a younger version of the Seahawks, both have built up great defenses and supplemented it with a run first offense with a dual threat quarterback.  Just as Seattle is regressing after having to pay all of its stars and leaving its roster dangerously thin in certain places, Carolina will likely have to do the same over the next 3-5 years. 

While the Panthers have done quite well on defense, offense is another story.  Much like the Packers in 2009 and 2011, quarterback Cam Newton is basically carrying the offense on his back; the offensive line is average at best while the wide receiver group has been ravaged by injuries, losing #1 WR Kevin Benjamin during the offseason and the running game has been hit or miss, especially with the tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (anyone want to explain why Williams and Stewart are playing now that they are apart?).

Perhaps it’s the flavor of the moment (much like the 3-4 defense was a couple years ago), the strong defense/run first offense/dual threat quarterback has been incredibly popular; Seattle is obviously the poster child for this philosophy but the 49ers also were incredibly successful at it at one point and teams like the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets have joined with Carolina to try to replicate Seattle’s success.  So far the results are mixed, while Seattle won a Super Bowl and the Seahawks and 49ers almost won two more, overall it doesn’t seem to be as efficient as the west-coast passing offenses manned by Rodgers, Brady and Manning.