WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL

Jets quarterback Zach Wilson missed the first 3 games of the season with a knee injury, so we only have 2 games judge what the offense looks like with him at the helm.

In his first game, they struggled against a Steelers defense that has not been great this year. The Jets managed only 10 points until the middle of the 4th quarter, then rallied for 2 touchdowns (one following a Steelers turnover) to win the game with 16 seconds left. Both scoring drives were fueled by quick, short passes from Wilson in hurry-up mode that kept the Steelers on their heels.

In his second game (last week), the Jets put 40 points up on the Dolphins.

This game made headlines, but the gross number is a bit misleading. The Dolphins (missing a lot of players to injury that week), kept the game close at 17-19 with 10 minutes to go. 

Then Miami fell apart in the 4th quarter with a missed field goal, a fumble, and a 4-and-out on consecutive drives. This gave the Jets great field position and allowed them to score three quick touchdowns with an average drive length of only 30 yards.

In two games under Zach Wilson, the Jets scored 62, but they have not been the pinball offense that number might suggest.

In both games they struggled to move the ball and had to rally late. Both late rallies were fueled by turnovers and short fields.

Zach Wilson, for all his talent, has thrown a lot of checkdowns and has only 1 touchdown to go with his 2 interceptions.

Rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson and veteran Corey Davis have been a solid duo, but were more productive when Joe Flacco quarterbacked in relief of Wilson.

The running game has done well with Michael Carter and Breece Hall, who has had two impressive games the last two week with an increase in his work load. Plus, Zach Wilson is a rushing threat and we saw the Packers struggle with Daniel Jones last week.

What does all this mean?

The Packers need buckle up and play fast.

The Jets will play up-tempo small ball and mix in some RPO concepts. Kenny Clark and Jarron Reed may have a hard time getting through blockers in time to impact plays. De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker need to play at top speed and not miss any tackles because the Jets offense is going to go through their neighborhood most of the day. And someone will have to pick up the slack for Rashan Gary's injury - even if he plays.

The Packers have to cover tight and play fast. The cool weather and natural grass should slow the Jets down a little, but the Packers have to play more aggressive defense (like Joe Barry promised this week) to avoid getting dog-walked up and down the field.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Who knows?

The Packers offensive identity has not yet been established and weekly game-planning feels random and unpredictable in a bad way.

The offensive line hasn't gelled, but Elgton Jenkins and David Bakhtiari practiced every day this week, so that might help.

Christian Watson is out, so the Packers will need to figure out how to stretch the defense. I think they'll have an easier time using swing passes to running backs and inside routes to receivers to stretch the Jets horizontally rather than using any of their current receivers (who lack elite speed) to try to stretch them vertically.

This, of course, gets a lot easier with a lot of inside runs from a fantastic running back tandem to keep the chains moving... which the Packers have recently opted not to do.

The Packers may have been over-thinking their gameplans in previous weeks. Against the Giants, they spent 5 plays using Christian Watson to set up the Marcedes Lewis touchdown. Focusing on things like that, instead of just thinking about what will move the chains and score on each drive, may have led to stagnant second halves the last couple of weeks when things didn't materialize the way they hoped.

A return to simplicity might serve them well against the Jets.

More than anything, they need to protect the football. The Jets have 6 takeaways in the last two weeks and their defense has come through big time in the 4th quarter of both contests.

Carl Lawson has been wreaking havoc as a pass rusher for the Jets, while Quinnen Williams leads the team with 3 sacks from the interior - they could wreck the Packers attack if Jones and Dillon don't get good chip blocks.

In the secondary, 6'3 rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner has lived up to his billing as the 4th overall pick so far and looks like an instant star. The Packers will need to be careful trying to pass on him.

Ball security needs to be a top priority.

OTHER NOTES

• Braxton Berrios is averaging 14 yards per punt return for the Jets to go along with 25.5 yards per kick return - he will be a big test for a Packers special teams unit that hasn't been abysmal yet
• Jets Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFleur (Matt's brother) and Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh (Matt's best friend) probably know the Packers Head Coach and his gameplanning tendencies better than anyone
• Former Packer Marquand Manuel is the Jets Secondary Coach

FINAL THOUGHTS

This is a tough game for me to pick.

All logic and analysis points to a Packers win... but they haven't looked right.

Will Joe Barry actually play more aggressively? Will the offense actually run more? Can special teams actually keep being not terrible?

If those three are yes, the Packers win easy.

But I don't think it's that simple.

I expect the Packers to struggle with the Jets fast-paced, short-hit offense. I'm also not sure the the Packers can their offense on track that easily.

The Jets are young and have a lot of talent.

At the end of the day, I expect an uneven game, but I think the Packers protecting the ball and not giving up a late turnover to let the Jets take over will be the difference.

Packers 23, Jets 20