So You're Telling Me There's A Chance

In a key divisional game, the Packers' piss was hot. As a result, the Packers' playoff chances are alive and well. 

In the last game of the 2022 regular season, in a playoff-clinching game for the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell & Co. bullied the opposition and made some question whether head coach Matt LaFleur’s squad was, at their very core, soft and unable to respond to adversity when figuratively punched in the mouth. In the first matchup between these two teams this season, it was déjà vu all over again. The script was flipped on Thanksgiving Day. 

Without several key starters, the Packers finally got off to a hot start, scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions. Green Bay never trailed for the entirety of the game and forced three turnovers in a monumental 29-22 win. How monumental? Ahead of Thursday’s contest, they had a 24% chance of securing a playoff berth, according to the New York Times playoff simulator (h/t Zach Kruse). After the victory, it stands at 45%. 

If quarterback Jordan Love continues to play the way he has been playing over the last few weeks, the probability of making the playoffs for the fourth time in the last five seasons under LaFleur will only increase. QB1 has been on fire and likely showed the front office that he is the franchise's quarterback of the future. Through the first two drives against the Lions, he completed 8-of-9 passes for 124 yards and two touchdowns, to go along with a perfect passer rating of 158.3. He came back down to earth after that point, but only slightly. He finished 22 of 32 for 268 yards and three touchdowns and also added 39 yards on the ground. His 125.5 passer rating was a season-best. His poise in the pocket, his timing, his vision, his command of the offense, and most of all, his confidence are all leaps and bounds from where they were earlier in the year. He looks like he belongs. Sure, you can point to the fact that the pass defenses over the past two weeks are subpar. Good quarterbacks, though, feast (pun intended) on those types of defenses. 

One final Love nugget to chew on: Love's three-touchdown, zero-interception outing against the Lions was his third of the season. The Utah State product is the first in team history to accomplish such a stat line within his first 12 starts, as pointed out by Packers.com's Wes Hodkiewicz

In a game without wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks (concussion protocol), tight end Luke Musgrave (lacerated kidney), and running back Aaron Jones (knee), Love needed his offensive weapons to step up against the Lions. They did just that. Christian Watson, who "hasn't been flawless" this season according to LaFleur, had four catches for 78 yards over the first two drives, including a 53-yard reception on the first play of the game, and finished with a season-high five receptions for a season-high 94 yards and one touchdown. Rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed (four catches for 34 yards on eight targets) caught an absolute dart of a throw from Love in traffic for the first score of the game. Tight end Tucker Kraft, thrust into starting duty, secured his first NFL touchdown on a beautiful play design on third-and-one on the team's second possession. Wide receiver Malik Heath, who had one reception entering Week 12, made his presence felt as well, catching four passes for 46 yards, good for second on the team. 

You can’t talk about the Packers’ second-highest output of the season without giving flowers to the offensive line. Love made their lives easier by escaping the pocket from time to time when it collapsed, but all in all, they did not allow a single sack and neutralized defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who wreaked havoc on that unit in the Week 4 blood bath. (After today, it is clear that Sean Rhyan should be the permanent starter at right guard.) 

Speaking of wreaking havoc, Rashan Gary came to play on Thanksgiving, ladies and gentlemen. Roughly one year after tearing his ACL at Ford Field, the Michigan product had his second three-sack performance of the season. He also contributed three quarterback hits and two forced fumbles, one of which led to a scoop-and-score by Jonathan Owens. Gary was unguardable. 

Defensive coordinator Joe Barry said earlier this week that the Lions were home to the best offensive line in the game. Pro Football Focus agreed. And yet, Barry & Co. made them look like one of the worst. The pass rush finished with 12 quarterback hits, a season-worst for the Detroit big boys. 

Legitimate progress is being made over at 1265 Lombardi Ave. on both sides of the ball. With six games remaining, including four against teams with a losing record, the Packers have an opportunity to do what nobody thought they would do merely three weeks ago: make the playoffs. 

 

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Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild). 

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6 points
 

Comments (36)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Packerpasty's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:22 am

it made for a very happy Thanksgiving meal...

5 points
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Since'75's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:31 am

I said in a post before this game, that a win isn't impossible.
That this is a week to week league.
That is the closest i've scene to a Packer win prediction.
And it wasn't even a prediction.
************
I was helping prep and serving meals for the first half at a church, getting glances at the TV here and there.

Finally got to relax and watch after halftime.

That was an incredible win

I know everyone will be puffing out and pounding their chest.

But nobody.....saw that coming (pre game)

Very proud, especially in front of such a huge audience.
The Packers got some respectability yesterday.

4 points
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HawkPacker's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:49 am

You are a good person Since'75.

I did not think they would win either and I just hoped they looked good and wouldn't embarass themselves.

Voila--a packer victory.

2 points
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Starrbrite's picture

November 24, 2023 at 07:30 pm

Victory never tasted so good.

0 points
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Since'75's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:22 am

Look at me Ma!!
************
LOL....
Apparently, someone didn't like me talking about somebody's Mother.

Children.....ya gotta love em!! 😏😲

0 points
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Guam's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:45 am

"So You're Telling Me There's a Chance"

It is so tempting to go all Jim Mora on this headline, but I will resist. Jordan Love has been good to really good over the last four games, but he is still a first year starter. To expect him to play the next six games at this level is probably unrealistic. I would be happy with a split of the last six games and some ups and downs but general growth by all the youngsters, particularly QB1. That would provide a lot of hope for 2024.

5 points
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Coldworld's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:50 am

We are seeing that the roster has a chance to be the core of a truly good one. We risk losing sight of what is holding the team back: coaching.

Enjoy the win, savor it. It’s great to see talent emerging, it’s great to see hubris play into our hands so spectacularly (as Leotis noted). Loved it, but I want more if it and that means not ignoring the lessons in position.

We’ve wasted enough talent for the want of hood coaching. Will the the have the Vision to see what this season is teaching and fortitude to act on it? That would be the biggest win for this team this season and for many to come.

0 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

November 24, 2023 at 05:54 pm

As I watched the Jets foundering about today I wondered, if Robert Saleh gets the axe, would you accept another year of MLF with Saleh as D-Coordinator? It's a potential conundrum.

It's becoming increasingly apparent that Hackett is a nepo hire. He's nothing without Rodgers.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

November 25, 2023 at 07:59 am

Saleh as Packer DC would be too good to be true. Brian Flores looked to be available next season after MN stumbled out of the gate...but he may remain in MN if the coaching staff there survives now. He'd be my first choice...probably unlikely.

Saleh plays aggressive, attacking defense configured around the strengths of his players on the field to develop his team strategy. He'd be my second choice...probably unlikely.

My third choice would be anyone but Barry. There is so much talent on the Packers defense that is being misused and abused. The only saving grace for Barry Ball are turnovers. If they do not come it is a long day.

0 points
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cdoemel's picture

November 26, 2023 at 05:53 pm

Oh bullshit!! You won’t see what you don’t want to see. MLF let his QB1 decide the 1st play of the game. Yeah, horrible coaching. I disagree with a lot of Joe Barry scheme too, because it looks so bad during the game. But he listened to his players and made changes. These last two drafts have been a boon that, added to next year, will set GB up for a decade. Yeah, BG sucks. So f*ching sick of all you haters. Crawl back under your rock.

-1 points
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PatrickGB's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:45 am

Gee, this messes up my research on the top picks in the draft. But that’s okay.

6 points
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dblbogey's picture

November 24, 2023 at 11:31 am

There go our dreams of drafting Marvin Harrison - but that's ok. Beautiful performance by Love and Rashan Gary. "(After today, it is clear that Sean Rhyan should be the permanent starter at right guard.)" That's what irritates me about the coaching - why are they so slow to make obvious changes? Amari Rodgers, Royce Newman, etc. They let these guys screw up and prove they don't belong, yet keep playing them despite having better options sitting on the bench. Runyan showed promise as a rookie, but has digressed each year since. Move on already, Rhyan is a run blocking beast.

1 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 24, 2023 at 06:44 pm

At least play Rhyan more. And give Mt Caleb his first snap!

1 points
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HawkPacker's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:51 am

"QB1 has been on fire and likely showed the front office that he is the franchise's quarterback of the future."

Rex, I am leaning that way myself. I was so impressed with his play. I almost popped some of my buttons on the top half of my shirt with his play. Usually there is just a lot of stress on the lower half of my shirts.

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

4 points
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Since'75's picture

November 24, 2023 at 10:56 am

The Lions star is starting to dim.....

The last 2 games they have committed 7 turnovers.

I heard if you have 3 turnovers, you have a 94% chances of losing.

The Lions had 4 against the Bears, i'm still not sure how they possibly won that game.
************
I'm hearing a lot of playoff chatter concerning the Packers even still being a sub .500 team.
After seeing what i saw yesterday, i don't think it's entirely out of line.

I even think the Chiefs are beatable, only because their offense is slipping.
They are averaging 7 PPG less than last season.

BUT....here is why i wouldn't bet money on the Packers (unless you're inclined to take the points).
The Chiefs defensive scoring is legit at 16.4 PPG. that is an elite number in case any are wondering.

If the Packer play the Chiefs similar in how they played Detroit.......
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/fa53ef88-b8fe-4e81-ad08-98a8a6ed8170

3 points
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Vachio's picture

November 24, 2023 at 11:40 am

The Lions managed to win that game because, in the words of Mike McCarthy, the Bears still suck. :)

4 points
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Grimm's picture

November 24, 2023 at 11:11 am

I agree the Lions may have peaked in October, not December. They also made a Green Bay win a little easier by some really questionable decisions. Fake Punt on your own 23? Lucky for them it did not turn into points, (which is probably should have) Going for it so often on 4th down, unsuccessful.

The heads up play of Jonathan Owens to grab the ball and run it to the end zone was huge. I like to class it as our lucky bounce, since the refs did not blow it dead and let it play out. Still he was smart enough to run it in, with really no one on the lions attempting to stop him as they must have figured it an incomplete pass. Mistake on their part, and an excellent play by Gary.

If the Lions had done better, it might have been a different out come. Yet you can only play the game in front of you and the Packers took it and played it all well.

That is why I'm in a little bit of a pump the brakes mode here. A play off run is a little bit down the road. Lets just enjoy the win for now.

6 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 24, 2023 at 06:48 pm

Playoffs? If GB makes it they probably face SF in the first round.

I'm focused on improvement throughout the regular season. KC could make that very difficult to evaluate? I'm just hoping for solid effort, and no more injuries ...

GPG!

2 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

November 24, 2023 at 11:28 am

I can't wait to see what word Charlotte spins in her web before the next Packer game?

Maybe just a simple and beautiful G...

Pantz in the Hamper

**I liked Coach LaF and the Security Guard. I don't read lipz for a living but I think Coach emphatically said: "All Gas, No Brakes" just before belly bumping the guard.

***Love #52 and his increasing role as a quiet leader on D and #10 with his increasing role as a leader on O. And with all the others with their humility to fill whatever role they are tasked to perform.

3 points
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Vachio's picture

November 24, 2023 at 11:45 am

What a difference a few weeks makes! If the team keeps playing like this, all the remaining games on the schedule are winnable games. Not something I thought I would be saying just a few weeks ago.

2 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 24, 2023 at 06:50 pm

Can finish with a winning record in the division :)

0 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

November 24, 2023 at 01:42 pm

I thought the author's subheading contained an obscure, possibly homespun, colloquialism. Not being familiar with the phrase or hot urine, I headed for Google. LaFleur!

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/09/15/matt-lafleur-packers-get-your-piss-hot

#themoreyouknow

4 points
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cdoemel's picture

November 26, 2023 at 05:55 pm

You’re not familiar with hot urine? Hmmm

0 points
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Spock's picture

November 27, 2023 at 07:17 am

Leotis, I'm more familiar with the phrase, "Full of Piss and Vinegar" which basically mean 'raring to go'. Not sure of the chemical reaction but I'd imagine that would give you 'hot piss' :)

https://www.bing.com/search?q=full+of+piss+and+vinegar+saying&cvid=6e363...

0 points
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ricky's picture

November 24, 2023 at 01:51 pm

Love's stats the first three games this season were impressive. Then he had some major problems for four games. His last three have been impressive again. https://www.google.com/search?q=jordan+love+stats+by+game&rlz=1CATRYO_en...
It was helpful that his receivers actually caught the ball. But that first throw to Watson, though it was a huge gain, took a long time to get from QB to WR. Love seems to be really good at throwing short to longer intermediate passes with zip and accuracy. Longer than approximately 40 yards it looks like the football is filled with helium. Other teams will catch onto this very quickly. Whether he lacks arm strength, or this is what the coaches decided he should do, it's not a good look, and will lead to more interceptions and breakups than receptions, IMO. The rest of the season will now be the final exam for Love. Hopefully, he aces it. And personally, it would be nice for the team to get into the playoffs, and give this young team a taste of how things get amped up, as the stakes are raised.

0 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 24, 2023 at 07:04 pm

I think coaches messed with his throwing mechanics and are now regretting it. JL10 has plenty of arm strength to make any throw. He should NOT be trying to thread needles from a mile away. The deep ball is an option when somebody is actually OPEN.

Making the easy layup has got to be priority #1.

2 points
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GVPacker's picture

November 24, 2023 at 07:07 pm

My biggest take regarding yesterday's win against the Lions was the fact that the Offense & Defense played 4 quarters, there was no letdown
60 minutes of football. I've been questioning Matt Lefleur and Joe Barry's coaching Integrity but hats off to both of them!! The Offense was running on all cylinders and the Defense was Physical and played Smash-Mouth football..... I hope this will be the norm for the remainder for the season!!!!!

4 points
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CanPackFan's picture

November 24, 2023 at 07:09 pm

Love is back. But I thought he would. But i was really happy for Watson. He needed that game for his confidence. I was concerned that all his injuries and family whining on social media would get into his head. But he handled like a pro - with action rather than words!

0 points
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Starrbrite's picture

November 24, 2023 at 07:33 pm

I like Bitternotsour’s comment about Saleh. If he’s available, we need to get him.

1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

November 25, 2023 at 08:07 am

Saleh would be the MLF crony hire I would support. MLF and Saleh go way back and I could see a reunion at 1265 Lombardi.

Jim Leonard may be ready to get back into the coaching grind too.

But like McCarthy's perennial stubborn attachment to Dom Capers, Joe Barry seems to be MLF's vice.

0 points
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Starrbrite's picture

November 26, 2023 at 07:34 am

Right on Lambeau.

0 points
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Cheddarhed's picture

November 24, 2023 at 07:48 pm

As far as the Packers are concerned, I said it before the season started that they would win some games they should have lost and lose some games they should have won. The wheels kind of fell off the offense on the second half a little. But they showed some Moxy. This year is not about how they start, but how they finish. Go Pack Go!!!

4 points
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golfpacker1's picture

November 25, 2023 at 09:24 am

Every game is winnable because of injuries. All it takes is 1 or 2 bad health breaks to a playmaker or important player and suddenly the margin of winning and losing is much closer. If Mahomes goes out of the game with a bad wheel or falls awkwardly on a shoulder, the Chiefs are completely different. Look at how they played without Kelsey.

Having so many young players can be a curse or a blessing. They will make stupid mistakes but you can't convince them that they have to lose to any given team. Before the year started and everyone said our running game was one of the best, I said all we needed from Love was a decent year. Keep the turnovers down and at least show why we spent a 1st rounder on him. I thought a run at the playoffs was at least possible if we got some breaks along the way. If not then bring on the draft and lets fill our holes and get better fast.

In my mock drafts we were just on the edge of the can't miss guys so I traded back alot for more high picks. You can win the draft multiple ways. We badly need a really good left tackle in this draft, but will miss out on the top 3. Maybe Jordan Morgan-Arizona at the top of the 2nd round after a trade back can get us started off on the right foot. Then a top saftey. 2 big holes filled and alot of picks left.

0 points
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4thand10's picture

November 25, 2023 at 10:32 pm

Well, they play more big men up front on DL which is what we were al clamoring for, and for good reason. They double and triple teamed hutchinson and trusted the rest of their players which was also smart. The safety play improved. Valentine and Ballentine both played sticky coverage. They’ve earned their playing time. The late round pick safety’s and cbs are almost playing better than the starters….they also exhibited the same sticky coverage during preseason. I’ve said it before and i’ll say it again… you look at Krafts college film and Mustgraves and kraft is clearly a baller and a blocker. Mustgrave hasn’t turned out too bad either but out of the 2, Kraft seems to be more balanced on his feet. It is nice having 2 TEs that are growing. Even Ben Sims looks promising.

The best part is all the pundits are eating crow. The losing streak wasn’t fun to watch but watching the development has been intriguing. Even the coaching staff has shown the ability to evolve and mix things up.

I said over and over not to give up on Dillon…especially when he starts running angry. That dude is a load to bring down and the NFL knows it. A couple of yrs ago when he had almost 200 yrds rushing against one of the stoutest Titans run defense it put opposing teams on notice, then they started focusing on him…and he is still getting it done. Nothing sells a play action better than 3-4 yrds and a cloud of dust…and he is capable of breaking one. I personally enjoy watching a short pass to him and a cb , safety or Lb making a decision on how to tackle him. He’s just one of those players that starts slow but towards the end of the year really starts turning it on and wearing on teams.

Now, I still think they need some OL pieces, a RB. And yes, I like Jones but the dude gets injured every year it seems. Maybe one of you stat guys can tell me how often he gets injured. He’s a leader, good football player etc…but in my mind he gets injured a lot.

But anyway, I hope they keep rolling and finding ways to win. It is as i expected…this young team is exciting to watch and the young players seem to be fully onboard with their young QB so i can’t knock this coaching staff too much anymore. Even Barry, whom i’m not particularly fond of, seems to be dialing up different packages on the D. Win or lose they seem to enjoy playing together and seem to be receptive to coaching.

Now, playoffs? I’m not so sure . If it happens hell yeah! Is it likely…I don’t think so.

1 points
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cdoemel's picture

November 26, 2023 at 05:58 pm

Lots of new user names around lately! All the pitiful hater trolls are back under their bridges waiting for the next opportunity to be poison.

0 points
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brettnivinski's picture

November 27, 2023 at 10:56 am

Remember the Lombardi Trophy!!

Kelce drank off it and spiked it.

Pride still matters. Let's make em pay for it in the House of Lombardi!!

0 points
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