Around the NFC North: 2024 Week 12

Bears gonna Bears.

I may need an exorcism. I spent an entire game as a Bears fan this weekend, hoping they'd take out the Vikings for us, and they almost did! Unfortunately, the Vikings pulled another win from the jaws of defeat and now I just feel grimy. Of course, the Lions won too. These are the times that try men's souls.   

Vikings and Bears

The Vikings pulled off a 30-27 win in overtime. 

Game Notes

  • Sam Darnold had 330 yards and Caleb Williams had 340 yards in this one - the key difference between the two explains the difference in the two offenses. Darnold hit his number with just 34 attempts (9.7 YPA) while it took Williams 47 (7.2 YPA). The Vikings' attack uses the run to set up downfield passing. And the Vikings have the receivers to take advantage of that, in a down game from Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison both went well over 100 receiving yards. The Bears have to use short-passing as a substitute for the run game because their run game is so inefficient.
  • Let's dig into that. Between Aaron Jones and Cam Akers, the Vikings had 125 rush yards on five yards per carry. The Bears star running back, D'Andrew Swift, had 13 carries for 30 yards. Caleb Williams was more productive on his scrambles - totaling 33 yards on six carries. For years, the nerds raged against the run game and right when the NFL finally started listening, it has become more valuable than ever. Especially, if you have a meh QB. The Bears thought they did everything right to set the team up for Caleb Williams, but they have no consistent run game, making it that much harder for their rookie QB to be productive. 
  • Of course, it's also hard for a young QB to be productive against a Brian Flores in any scenario. Free agent edge rushers extraordinaire Andrew Van Ginkle and Jonathan Greenard both added to their pile of sacks this season and Greenard forced a fumble as well. That said - the Vikings' much-ballyhooed defense gave up 100 more pass yards to the Bears than the Packers did last week. 
  • On the Bears' side, the defense played about as poorly as it could have. The Vikings had a 300-yard passer, 100-yard rusher and two 100-yard receivers in a game for the first time ever and Justin Jefferson wasn't even one of them. It's not a good sign when your two safeties combine for 22 tackles. 

 

 

 

Lions

Business as usual for the Lions who cruised by the Colts 24-6. 

Game Notes

  • The Lions run game also led the way. Jahmy Gibbs had 90 yards on 21 carries and David Montgomery had 37 yards on eight carries. David Montgomery sat for part of the second half after an injury that shouldn't hold him out of the game Thursday. Those numbers aren't flashy - but the Lions were consistently able to move the sticks on the ground and that likely made it possible for Jared Goff's numbers to be as good as they were. 
  • Goff was 26/36 for 269 yards. The Sun God, Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick all had around 60 yards and Sam LaPorta had 19. It definitely feels weird that LaPorta is having such a rough season this year after having, probably, the best rookie season ever for a tight end last year. Through ten games, he has just 385 yards and has gone over 60 in a game just once. It could be nagging injuries, or maybe more responsibilities in other areas of the offense but I still have the feeling that he's going to have a huge breakout week at some point.  
  • The story of this year's Lions is the defense. After a few years of mediocrity with Aaron Glenn, the Lions have hit on a bunch of defensive draft picks and have one of the best defenses in the league. The Lions have allowed 11 second-half points in their last five games - and the Packers got all of those. They haven't given up a TD in ten quarters. They have the second-best defensive DVOA. Seven of their 11 starters have been graded as green or blue chips by PFF. There's no way around it, they're just good now. And that's despite losing Aidan Hutchinson. 
  • Against the Colts specifically, they had no sacks and no interceptions and their leading tackler had just eight. It didn't matter because they stayed disciplined and got the Colts, who scored just six points, off the field when it mattered. 

  

 

 

 

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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved from Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.

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Comments (12)

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T7Steve's picture

November 26, 2024 at 10:31 am

Look at these three teams' O-lines and rank them. Then look at their records. It will start to connect the dots for offensive output. All three have good or real good Ds so close that it's a wash. It comes down to completing long scoring drives and protecting the ball.

Which of these teams have reached or are approaching their ceiling?

If the Packers can regain and keep their health, I believe they can compete and win against these teams. They only lose if they beat themselves. Of course, you could say that about any team. Against teams like Detroit and Minnesota the Packers have to create the problems that cause mistakes while not doing the mistakes themselves.

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Coldworld's picture

November 26, 2024 at 01:39 pm

As of right now, it’s not just the OL. It’s the QB and run game differential. At this point in the season for teams who play real football outside, both get magnified.

I certainly agree that the OL is deeply intertwined with the run and pass offenses. Healthy, Detroit has the best OL. The packers the best cold weather run offense (not denigrating Jones, but I’m also not relying on him to be the foundation of the offense, that’s their receivers).

Chicago has the worst OL and run game and is desperately hoping that Williams can be more in future. After that it’s close on play to date, if we can click I think our O has the most untapped upside. However, that means we also been performing further below our ceiling. At some point we have to bridge the gap though. Can we?

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T7Steve's picture

November 26, 2024 at 02:12 pm

Don't you think the better the line the better the QB and run game? Think if Caleb and the Bears RB had the Lions O-line. It's all predicated on the line. Jones had a much better half of the season when he got healthy, and the line started clicking which kind of went hand in hand.

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Coldworld's picture

November 26, 2024 at 06:17 pm

I think they are all interrelated. A good line helps the run and the QB, but their play helps the line too. I don’t disagree that the line is the best place to start, but if it’s 1a, the others are 1b.

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Leatherhead's picture

November 26, 2024 at 12:07 pm

This season is pretty unusual in that three of the best teams in the NFC are all in the North. It seems to me as though the Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Eagles are probably the four best teams, and the ones that'll still be here after wildcard weekend.

Of course, so far, we're 0-3 against that bunch, but the playoffs are a ways off yet. Stuff can happen. It is starting to look more and more than the Packers will have to derail the Lions because nobody else seems able to.

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T7Steve's picture

November 26, 2024 at 12:40 pm

A division "playoff" game for the Bears this Thursday. It can happen 2 years in a row with the Lions. They took the Packers for granted last season and they're hard to teach.

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Coldworld's picture

November 26, 2024 at 06:20 pm

The Lions remind me a lot of last year’s lions. There are hunks but one has to play well to exploit them and they do have inexplicably bad games. They happen not to have happened against good teams for the most part.

They are pretty healthy, apart from their star rusher. It’s hard to see them playing much better than they have been. I believe the Packers can. The Vikings look to me to be around their ceiling too, and it’s not as high as Detroit’s, especially if they ever have to go outside now.

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dobber's picture

November 26, 2024 at 12:19 pm

Last weekend had the chance to be a huge equalizer for the Packers as the Lions really couldn't shake the Colts and the Vikings tried like hell to choke their game away to the Bears, but it wasn't meant to be. When you count on teams like the Colts and Bears to make up for the fact that you didn't take care of business when you had the chance, this is what's likely to happen.

All the Packers can do is control what they can control from here out...and it starts by beating Miami on Thursday night. And that won't be an easy task.

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T7Steve's picture

November 26, 2024 at 12:54 pm

You always want those teams to lose. It's hard to pick any team to win between them especially the Bears, but if I'm watching I want the most damage done and will side with the underdog.

If you're looking for someone to help you into the playoffs, you're already just about on your way home. Might be exceptions like 2010 but few and far between.

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barutanseijin's picture

November 26, 2024 at 02:48 pm

I watched that Bear game. Failure & incompetence is what i enjoy the most from the Bears and Vikings. Unfortunately, one of them had to win. I just wanted it to come in a soul-crushing fashion for the team that lost.

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barutanseijin's picture

November 26, 2024 at 03:01 pm

The Bears had another kick blocked. So Mr Eberflus, it looks like YOU have a problem with your kicker and your blocking scheme.

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Starrbrite's picture

November 26, 2024 at 10:11 pm

I don’t buy the Viking’s record and I see them losing to the Cardinals. The Viking’s D is overrated and is predicated on blitzkrieg reputation . But living by the blitz is also dying by the blitz—they have been very fortunate to date, but I see their wheels falling off.
Go Packers!!!

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