Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - Can Hafley "turnover" the Packers D?
The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.
By JerseyAl

Of all the moves made by the Packers since the end of last season, the firing of Joe Barry and hiring of Jeff Hafley stands as the one that could have the most consequence as to the success of this team in 2024. Winning the turnover battle, especially in the playoffs, has always been a consistent measure of success in the NFL. The Packers defense was a pitiful 31st in the league in interceptions (7) and 26th in forced fumbles last season. The offense, meanwhile, did a much better job, finishing 22nd in interceptions thrown (11) and 15th (tied with four other teams) in fumbles (6). Against Dallas in the playoffs, the Packers defense came through with two interceptions that resulted in 14 points while the offense played turnover-free football. In the playoff loss to the 49ers, the equation was flipped, with the Packers having two interceptions and the 49ers playing turnover-free football. The Packers missed the playoffs in 2022 and prior to that in 2021, they finished with the best turnover differential in the league, but were minus-1 in their loss to the 49ers in the playoffs.
All this being said, while winning and losing isn't as simple as winning the turnover battle, it does go a long way. Various studies have shown that teams winning the turnover battle by +1 win appx. 70% of the time, +2 or +3 win roughly 90% of the time. I couldn't find anything specific to playoff games, but my gut tells me the percentages are probably higher in those high pressure, high stakes games.
And that brings us back to Jeff Hafley. The aggressiveness doctrine he espouses SHOULD lead to more turnovers from the Packers defense versus the "play it safe" mantra of Joe Barry. If Hafley's defense can deliver in the critical turnover department, that could hold the key to a potential playoff run to the Super Bowl.
On another note, today is the first day that certain players report to Lambeau Field for the start of their 2024 season. As Aaron Nagler pointed out in his Monday "Packers Daily" rookies and quarterbacks are expected to report today. Yes, quarterbacks. As in Pratt, Clifford and, oh, Jordan Love? Will Jordan Love appear? Will he walk in, march up to Russ Ball's office, sign on the dotted line and then head down to the locker room? Will he stay home while final details of a contract extension are still being worked out? Stay tuned...
On the positive side, Love is in Wisconsin currently (not in Egypt) at his first football camp for kids. He wasn't allowed to answer a contract question and just repeated what someone off camera said, "news to come." But could that ear-to-ear grin be a giveaway?
#Packers training camp kicks off on Monday.
How are contract extension talks going with Jordan Love?
We'll be waiting for that news to come. pic.twitter.com/GIFnOZ8nPA
— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) July 16, 2024
I've been thinking about the rookie I'm most excited about and have settled on Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper has the athletic ability to be a dynamic disrupter on the Packers defense. His acceleration to the ball carrier is elite level and early reports from OTAs raved about his ability to diagnose early in the play. Turn him loose, Jeff!
The biggest mystery for me is, what will Eric Stokes be? Finally over all of the injuries, can he stay healthy? Can he recapture some of that promise he showed as a rookie? Have the injuries diminished his speed or mobility at all? So may questions...
Finally, just a quick reminder. When you see a post from "Ed Wood" on this site, it's not from one of our writers. It's a sponsored post, which means we get some money for publishing it on this site. We get a ton of offers but try to keep it to only 3-4 per month on average. Some of the articles are fairly good, but honestly, most are not. We ask for your patience and just ignore anything from Ed Wood if that works best for you. As you likely know, we are an independent site - there is no one with deep pockets financing us, so we have to make some money to pay the bills however we can. And note, we do things the right way. For example, we pay for the rights to use any images or music you find on any of our platforms (and it costs a lot more than you might expect). Patreon memberships help us a lot, as does ad revenue from our Youtube channel and the website. In summary, we REALLY appreciate your patience and support.
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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of various hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He's a lifetime Packers fan living in the land of the Giants (and Jets). Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
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Comments (39)
NickPerry
July 17, 2024 at 06:36 am
"The Packers defense was a pitiful 31st in the league in interceptions (7) and 26th in forced fumbles last season."
When I saw 7 interceptions by the defense at the end of the season my first thought was this. If you play 10 yards off on 3rd and 4, you're not going to be in a position to intercept the ball! What the hell did you expect Joe Barry? Especially if you never ATTACK!
"I've been thinking about the rookie I'm most excited about and have settled on Edgerrin Cooper."
Me too Al. I'm pretty excited about Bullard too but Cooper is a different breed. We now have an ILB who can really do it all. I'm still holding out hope for Quay Walker and I think this defense will really suit him well. But if it doesn't and he's just an average Joe, Gute drafted another guy in the 3rd (Hooper) that could maybe step in next season if Walker doesn't get a LOT better this year.
There's Gutey always thinking AHEAD!
LLCHESTY
July 17, 2024 at 03:29 pm
"If you play 10 yards off on 3rd and 4, you're not going to be in a position to intercept the ball!"
I don't think that's true, on 3rd and 4 at least three receivers will be breaking at or near the sticks, the defender is moving forward and if he jumps the route should be in a position to play the ball. I think the problem was Barry had so many options to his calls the DBs were hesitant to trust themselves and somebody was frequently in the wrong position.
Bitternotsour
July 17, 2024 at 04:31 pm
concur
Tundraboy
July 17, 2024 at 07:16 pm
I can see that leading to a lot of overthinking and hesitation.
Cheezehead72
July 17, 2024 at 06:53 am
Al I agree that this defense should lead to more turnovers but there also is the greater chance of big plays against it.
I prefer an aggressive defense that might give up the big play over the safe defense we have had. Yes I will get aggravated by the big plays but in the end I hope to be happy.
T7Steve
July 17, 2024 at 07:12 am
If you're going to give up points anyway, you may as well give the ball back to your offense with more time to do something. Our old D did fairly well till they started to wear down at the ends of games. Look how good they made opposing QBs look who shouldn't have been in the game.
Leatherhead
July 17, 2024 at 09:41 am
How many games did we lose when we started the 4th quarter with a lead? I can think of one. Maybe two or three. Out of 19 games.
T7Steve
July 17, 2024 at 11:21 am
It's when you're behind at the end of games that you need your D off the field the most.
Leatherhead
July 18, 2024 at 10:12 am
OK, how many games where we were tied or behind (by one score or less) towards the end of the game did we lose because the defense couldn't get off the field?
It's a short list, Steve. It doesn't happen very often. The Falcons, in Week 2, came from behind and won a close one. The Giants game. The 49ers, of course.
If your offense scores 0 points in the last 20 minutes of the game, I don't think it's fair to hang the loss on the defense.
LambeauPlain
July 18, 2024 at 10:00 am
Joe being gone means you can let him go, having no choice.
Guam
July 17, 2024 at 07:49 am
More turnovers and more three and outs. The Barry defense never seemed to be able to get off the field, particularly in the second half. I am hoping Hafley can get more three and outs from the Packer defense.
And yes, I also expect to see more big plays against our defense, but I can live with that if the turnovers and three and outs also go up.
Tundraboy
July 17, 2024 at 07:20 pm
I always end up thinking of death by a thousand cuts, sustained drives, not getting off the field enough, leaving less time to score for our O,.
T7Steve
July 17, 2024 at 06:58 am
I hope Love shows up to work out with the rookies. There isn't too much risk in that versus the rewards for getting them started out right. I think he will. Someone here commented earlier that they might want to save the announcement for family night. Will they wait that long? Either way I think it's a done deal. I don't know the cap ramifications, but maybe it helps if they wait longer?
I'm excited about how the rookies AND second year guys are going to do with the new D. Not to mention all the rest that were hamstrung previously.
A more attacking D will bring more excitement. There may be some added risks, but a passive D that takes what the offense dishes out didn't exactly bring any better results, so I'll welcome the new fun and tension it brings.
Tundraboy
July 17, 2024 at 07:22 pm
At least we know their is a possibility and a very good chance ,a deal might get done, far better than knowing there was a snowballs chance in hell in the past. Just saying.
stockholder
July 17, 2024 at 07:08 am
Barry was bad. But so was every DC since 2010.
They didn’t pick the draft picks.
They played the hand that was dealt to them.
The obvious- Get Clark Help.
You can’t expect turnovers, if the guys up front are missing.
Why stay tuned. Even a Civil defense warning.
Couldn’t change your mind on Love’s value.
We don’t need to think this out anymore.
It will be MLF and his play calling, if he can’t live up to it..
Love the Cooper Hype -
He’s Already made the packers Hall of Fame.
I’ll take Walker for leading Tackler.
jannesbjornson
July 17, 2024 at 10:11 am
Cooper can get to the QB fast. He has the smarts and can diagnose quickly. He was everybody's guy when we started the draft speculation. I still believe Hopper will create some smoke. Gary will work well in this 4-3/Hybrid and Brooks is a natural defensive end. Let Wyatt move freely and stunt. He had 5.5 sacks . You don't draft one picks to eat up blocks. The Seven INTs in 2023 was depressingly, underwhelming and a reason I wanted a CB in Rd Two. Walker was over-drafted.
GregC
July 17, 2024 at 07:11 am
Edgerrin Cooper is the most exciting rookie, but Javon Bullard may be the most important. It's been a long time since the Packers have had a safety as good as Xavier McKinney, but he can't do it all himself. He needs a competent running mate. Safety is a difficult position to play as a rookie, but I'm hoping that Bullard's experience at Georgia against high level competition has prepared him to make an impact as an NFL safety right off the bat. I know there are three other safeties who could win that job, but Bullard is the one who is most likely to have a chance of being really good as a full-time starter.
Bitternotsour
July 17, 2024 at 12:28 pm
Bullard has two very good draft picks to push him in camp. The tape on the two Oregon (ducks and beavers) safeties is really impressive. Do not sell them short.
jannesbjornson
July 17, 2024 at 12:57 pm
The choice of Williams will be compared against Mustapha, who Lynch selected.
packerbackerjim
July 17, 2024 at 07:22 am
GB ranked 16th in time of possession, which happened to be the lowest of playoff teams except for TB. If Hadley’s defense can create more turnovers I would expect TOP to improve significantly. And the really important stat, points scored.
PeteK
July 17, 2024 at 09:56 am
A healthy, tough RB will help with that.
Leatherhead
July 17, 2024 at 05:35 pm
More points scored because you're starting on shorter fields more often. And of course, when you get a takeaway that kills a drive, which is an area that could be improved.
Points are the really important stat. TOP? Not so much. Maybe you remember the game against Dallas last year Dallas WON the TOP!! It's really about possessions, and how often you convert those possessions into points. You only get about 10 or 11 possessions, so if you fail to convert some 3rd downs, and you turn it over a couple of times, it's hard to get very many points on the board.
Tundraboy
July 17, 2024 at 07:30 pm
"You only get about 10 or 11 possessions, so if you fail to convert some 3rd downs, and you turn it over a couple of times, it's hard to get very many points on the board."
Perfectly stated. Opportunities squandered are difficult to regain. Gives me bad flashbacks when we intercepted Brady three times and if I recall correctly immediately gave the ball back. I just knew we were doomed. You only get so many opportunities.
Zapato
July 17, 2024 at 09:32 am
I'm as excited as anyone about the purported aggressive play style a Jeff Hafley defense will bring to Green Bay. But, I'm tempering my early expectations until the team learns how to play in a new system, especially the young guys. And we have a lot of young guys. During the first half of the season, I expect to see some great plays along with some really frustrating "what the hell just happened" moments. The team needs to grow into this defense and, hopefully, by the end of the season they'll be shutting opponents down.
Edgerrin Cooper should win a starting spot on the defense. If not, I'm worried. One player I'll be watching is Kilan King. Not because I expect him to be a starter, but I think he's an intriguing player who could be a contributor on this defense. The question is, just how much?
NFLfan
July 17, 2024 at 10:23 am
I'm hopeful but will need to conserve my emotional energy until I witness reality.
No jitters re: Love & his merry band of WRs, though.
I'm also impressed with MLF these days.
LeotisHarris
July 17, 2024 at 10:31 am
Thanks for the reminder on Ed Wood, Al, but I'm in the camp that says men our age should never ever apologize for or ignore any kind of wood.
mnbadger
July 17, 2024 at 12:23 pm
This guy gets it . . .
GPG!
egbertsouse
July 17, 2024 at 03:49 pm
Sounds like a Rodney Dangerfield bit:
" I tell ya, I get no respect. No respect at all. When I want to make love, I have to go to CHTV to get any wood!"
13TimeChamps
July 17, 2024 at 05:44 pm
Ummm....methinks you have that confused just a tad.
egbertsouse
July 18, 2024 at 01:07 pm
Confused? Then I gotta see my doctor. You know my doctor? Dr. Vinny Boombotz. He gives me no respect, no respect at all. Last time I see him, I say Doc I think I'm sick. He says, "You're crazy. " I say, "I want a second opinion." He says, "OK, you're ugly too." No respect, I tell ya.
Tundraboy
July 17, 2024 at 07:31 pm
I keep thinking of the movie.
Ferrari-Driver
July 17, 2024 at 11:23 am
I believe the Joe Barry defense missed a few chances to add to the interception total by playing corner backs around 10 yards off on third down and three yards to go. There were too many plays like that which just gave the opposition offense an easy pitch and catch with little to no risk of turning the ball over.
splitpea1
July 17, 2024 at 11:30 am
Both Cooper and Bullard are good choices to be excited about on defense, and on offense, Marshawn Lloyd for sure. The player I'm most curious about is Hopper; other than special teams, we're really not sure about how much playing time he'll get, but you would like to see some sort of justification for taking him in the third round as opposed to say, a CB.
Second year player to get excited about: Van Ness. Andy Herman did a good job breaking down the areas needed to make that second-year jump in a podcast last week, so I would encouraged interested fans to give it a listen.
Grandfathered
July 17, 2024 at 09:15 pm
The limited tape I've watched on Cooper shows he's pretty good on kickoff teams for the Aggies. Normally a starter ILB would not play teams but if he falters and doesn't get the starting job, then it may be a possibility. Or if the new kickoff rules show a strong need for a sure tackler of his size, with less chance of injury, he could play.
croatpackfan
July 17, 2024 at 12:36 pm
Well, Al, when defense stays a lot on the field, they become tired. Rarely, Packers get turn on result in the 4th Q. One game comes to my mind - vs Saints. And that is all.
Regarding D, I expect similar problems Packers had with thier O in the beggining of the last season. From alomst perfect games to very bad ones. Ups and downs... Once, players get the idea, I expect very good D, at least.
For me, most interesting players will be FA additions. How fast they will pick concepts of O and/or D. McKinney has advantage over Jacobs, as he is coming from very aggressive D in NY. Concepts of O are very different from Josh McDaniels one, so it is also worth of looking what Jacobs can do in MLF offense.
Wisma Packer
July 17, 2024 at 01:16 pm
Al, thanks for the clarification on "Ed Wood"!
It was puzzling, to put it mildly, to read factual inaccuracies in articles written by presumably Packers writers. The recent article is not Ed Wood's first article on this site, and like the ones before, had quite a few head-scratching moments.
Now that mystery is cleared! 😀
I will look with a more kindly eye on future articles - yes, CheeseheadTV does an excellent job for us Packer fans, and I do not begrudge you any side revenue you can make.
TheTaxiSquad
July 17, 2024 at 01:18 pm
I’ve read that some of these young guys, especially now with the transfer portal, are coming to the NFL already having learned at least a couple different systems, so hopefully that previous experience helps them get settled in quicker to Hafley’s D. And, if you believe what is said, there seems to be a concerted effort to make it as easy for them as possible. Not much thinking. Just go. Undoubtedly, there will be some growing pains early on, but it’s going to be fun watching it all come together.
TheTaxiSquad
July 17, 2024 at 01:25 pm
I’ve read that some of these young guys, especially now with the transfer portal, are coming to the NFL already having learned at least a couple different systems, so hopefully that previous experience helps them get settled in quicker to Hafley’s D.
And, if you believe what is said, there seems to be a concerted effort to make it as easy for them as possible. Not much thinking. Just go. Certainly there will be some growing pains early on, but it will be fun watching it all come together. Very excited!
PhantomII
July 19, 2024 at 10:21 pm
I'm still waiting on ST to get fixed AL......Ironically, I already feel the defense has improved with JB gone, sight unseen.