Contract Details For Elgton Jenkins
Jenkins' deal looks like a 3-year deal rather than a 4-year extension to me.
The details for Elgton Jenkins' extension are now available. I have summarized them in the table below:
| YR | Base | SB | Roster | GA | WO | Cap # | Dead | Save | New $ |
| 22 | 3.482M | 4.8M | 9.02M | $23.496M | |||||
| 23 | 1.137M | 4.8M | .6M | .5M | 7.037M | $19.2M | -$12.17M | $25.734M | |
| 24 | 3.5M | 4.8M | 5.1M | .6M | .5M | 14.5M | $14.4M | 100K | $35.434M |
| 25 | 11.7M | 4.8M | .6M | .5M | 17.6M | $9.6M | 8.0M | $48.234M | |
| 3 Year Out Is $48.238 ($16.013M AAV), $4.8M Dead, Cap Savings of $20M | |||||||||
| 26 | 18.5M | 4.8M | 1M | .5M | $24.8M | $4.8M | $20M | $68.234M | |
The Packers reduced Jenkins' base salary for the last three weeks of the 2022 season from $663K ($221K per game) to the minimum of $160K, which is a difference of $504K (rounded up). I therefore reduced the running new cash from $24M (signing bonus) to $23.496M in year zero. New cash in 2023 is low, just $2.238M (so there is almost nothing to restructure). That assumes he earns his entire game active bonus and his workout bonus. I do not know why his base salary is $57,971 more than his 2023 minimum ($1.137M versus $1.08M). My thought was it was an extra game check, but the math does not compute precisely. Jenkins will earn $9.7M in new cash in 2024 (including the roster bonus), $12.8M in 2025, and $20M in 2026. The $5.1M roster bonus in 2024 is not guaranteed; Jenkins earns it if he is on the roster on the third day of the 2024 league year. Jenkins can earn escalators for winning honors, apparently as an offensive tackle, and not as a guard.
There is nothing terribly surprising in this contract. In my "Trying to Contend in 2023" article I guessed that Jenkins would get an extension at $16M AAV, and that his 2023 cap number would be $7.08M. The deal he got was for $17M AAV and his 2023 first year cap number will be $7.037M. [Jenkins missed two games, so his likely to be earned cap number will use $529,412 rather than $600K, lowering his cap number to $6.967M.]
The cash flow after two new seasons is 52% of the total value of the contract, which is okay though not great. The cash flow after three season is just 70.7%, not a good number from the player's viewpoint. Which leads me to my next point.
The 2026 year looks a little suspicious. $20M cash paid is a big jump from $12.8M the year before, and it is unusual for the Packers. Smith only gets $700K more in his last scheduled season. Clark get $750K more in cash in his last season than in his 3rd season. Alexander gets $2M more, but even that pales in comparison to Jenkins, who gets $7.2M more. Moreover, his Cap Savings to Dead Money ratio would be 5 to 1 entering his last season, with a whopping $20M in cap savings if released, assuming no restructures in 2024 or 2025. Jenkins would have to be playing at a high level to see that money.
His AAV is 7.55% of $225M projected cap in 2023. The cap limit would have to be $329M in 2026 to maintain that percentage since his scheduled cap number is $24.8M. By comparison, Alexander's AAV is 9.33% of the 2023 cap. The salary cap would only have to rise to $273M in 2026 for his percentage of cap to remain 9.33%.
It seems clear to me that both parties understand that the last year of this contract is in some question. I am viewing this as a 3-year, $48M deal.
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Comments (8)
Thegreatreynoldo
January 07, 2023 at 08:20 pm
It is too bad that the deal could not wait until tomorrow to be signed. Since it was done earlier, the $4.8M signing bonus proration counts in the 2022 season, and another $4.8M proration counts for 2023, which totals $9.6M in prorations reducing the Packers' cap space for 2023. Had it been signed tomorrow, there would have been just a $6M signing bonus proration in 2023, a difference of $3.6M.
I had been assuming that the Packers would roll over $4M or so of cap space into the 2023 season. Now, I should think that the rollover will be closer $1M. Referring back to my contending in 2023 article in which I estimated that the Packers would have to generate $19M just to meet the new 2023 salary cap limit and about $30M by game one, now those numbers are increased to something in the area of $31M and $43M, respectively, due to Jenkins' deal. That is, $9.02M versus $3.986M for 2022 and his new $7M cap number in 2023. That will definitely remove some flexibility in constructing the 2023 roster.
But enough about 2023 for now. The Packers face the Lions in less than 23 hours to earn a 2022 playoff spot. GPG!
Thegreatreynoldo
January 07, 2023 at 08:30 pm
Under the Great Moogilly Googily Gobbledlygook salary cap fixes for 2023, I ran across this tweet from Ken Ingalls. In it, he suggests (as I suggested some time ago) that the Packers could offer Adrian Amos $5.69M in cash for one year in 2023 and have him play in 2023 for a cap number of $7.95M or they could let him walk, have him not play for the Packers but still have to count $7.95M for him as dead money. That would be done by paying the minimum, with the rest of the $5.69M as a signing bonus. That would result in counting Amos for about $8.5M in 2024 if they let him walk at that time. At least the dead money is close.
https://twitter.com/KenIngalls/status/1610677138528636937
Since'61
January 07, 2023 at 11:11 pm
TGR great information as usual. I appreciate you taking the time to make sense out of Jenkin’s contract. Job well done! Thanks, Since ‘61
HarryHodag
January 08, 2023 at 07:49 am
Jenkins is worth every dollar as a left guard. He's an ok left tackle and not so ok at right tackle. I think many folks have forgotten that center was thought to be his best position coming out of college. The Packers caught a break by signing him to this deal because I think he could have gotten more out in the free market.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2023 at 10:03 am
I thought Jenkins was worth $16M, which is why I guessed his contract at that amount. He got $17M, which is fine. I actually think as his knee fully recovers he can be a top 5 to 8 LT.
GB probably thought they caught a good deal which is why they restructured Lowry and did the deal right away. I can't say they are wrong. Doing the deal does mean more extensions/releases and less flexibility to do a post june designation or even trade a high priced/high cap savings player.
dobber
January 08, 2023 at 11:39 am
We saw a Jenkins who rushed back from injury who didn't do well at RT (coming back early + playing a new position on the other side of the liine), and has had the benefit of about 8 weeks of play and is rounding back into form at LG. While not every LT can play RT, I suspect he'll be his old self next season and probably would show much better at RT than he showed this year.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2023 at 09:46 am
So I see that the Saints and Cardinals have restructured Michael Thomas and JJ Watt, respectively, to ease cap issues. Watt is going to retire, and Thomas has only played 10 games over the last three seasons, so the Saints are going to release him.
The Saints reduced Thomas' base salary from $15.5M to his minimum of $1.165M, and added a $31.55M roster bonus for 2024 that becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2023 league year. That drops his 2023 cap number from $28.2M to around $13.5M, making it easier for the Saints to comply with the salary cap limit. The Saints will release Thomas with a post-June designation before the $31.55M roster bonus becomes guaranteed. This allows the Saints to spread Thomas' $25M in dead money over two seasons. To use this trick, the deal had to be done by yesterday.
The Packers in theory could have done something similar with Adrian Amos to save $4.5M or so against the cap in 2023, with that amount moving to dead money in 2024. One difference is that Thomas wanted to be a free agent and the Saints just needed the cap space. It was not personal. But it would have been awkward discussing this with Amos when the Packers have a game they need to win to make the playoffs plus the possibility of playoff games. There is no benefit to Amos.
Watt is similar, though that is a retirement. Still, by doing it now, as Jason Fitzgerald of OTC pointed out, it means that Watt will be released with a June designation by the Cardinals rather than waiting for retirement papers to be filed by Watt whenever he pleases.
I mention these deals because being able to spread AR's dead money over two years is almost certainly going to require AR's active cooperation when he decides to retire either after this season or after next season. GB probably needs to keep a friendly relationship with AR.
Guam
January 08, 2023 at 09:58 am
Interesting information TGR. Thank you as always for keeping us current on the Packers cap.