Cory's Corner: The Curse Is About To Die

Tucker Kraft is the perfect guy to snap the third round curse. 

Is this the year the Packers finally break the third round curse?

Dating back to 2015 with the selection of Ty Montgomery, Green Bay hasn’t been able to find a quality player in the third round. It gets even worse. The 2019 pick of Jace Sternberger was so bad that he only lasted two years in Green Bay and isn’t even in the league anymore. 

The 2020 pick of Josiah Deguara is still on the roster, but his role is still a huge question mark. His hands have been an issue in big spots and he isn’t very fast in space. Sean Rhyan is also on the roster, but he is buried on the offensive line depth chart. The 2022 draft pick played zero offensive snaps as a rookie last year and he will need to prove an awful lot just to see the field in 2023. 

Then there’s Amari Rodgers. After five fumbles in 10 games, the Packers saw enough and released him after getting drafted in 2021. 

But don’t fret, because I think South Dakota State tight end Tucker Kraft was the best player the Packers picked in the 2023 NFL Draft. The tight end seems to be a runaway freight train whenever he touches the ball, which makes defenses not exactly thrilled about tackling him. 

Plus, Kraft is perfect for Green Bay. He’s the thick, blue collar kid that isn’t afraid of playing old-school football. He hits like a linebacker — and that’s when he has the football. 

The question is, can Kraft outplay the vaunted Packers third round curse? It isn’t going to take much to outplay Kyler Fackrell (2016), Montravius Adams (2017), or Oren Burks (2018). Those guys were average at best and didn’t last long in green and gold. 

This isn’t just the year of change for a new quarterback, a rebooted offense and a head coach with plenty to prove. This is the year the Packers finally break through with a third round pick. Enough with the marginal or players that don’t belong in the league. 

The third round curse is going to die this year. Now if the Packers can just get more than 42 quarterback hurries — they only hurried the opposing passer 7.9 percent of the time. 

 

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__________________________

Cory Jennerjohn is a graduate from UW-Oshkosh and has been in sports media for over 15 years. He was a co-host on "Clubhouse Live" and has also done various radio and TV work as well. He has written for newspapers, magazines and websites. He currently is a columnist for CHTV and also does various podcasts. He recently earned his Masters degree from the University of Iowa. He can be found on Twitter: @Coryjennerjohn

__________________________

NFL Categories: 
13 points
 

Comments (67)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NickPerry's picture

June 20, 2023 at 06:24 am

I hope Cory is right...Ever since the Packers drafted Musgrave and then Kraft, I've had this vision of them becoming the next Gronk and Aaron Hernandez...You know, MINUS the whole murder thing.

Let him be exactly what Cory described him as..."He’s the thick, blue collar kid that isn’t afraid of playing old-school football. He hits like a linebacker — and that’s when he has the football."

Lets add in he catches EVERYTHING in his zip code on the field.

21 points
21
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greengold's picture

June 20, 2023 at 06:35 am

Nick, maybe you should use the Keith Jackson and Mark Chmura combo inste…

Oh, wait.

Nevermind.

In all seriousness, I love that Gutekunst selected both Musgrave & Kraft. That’s a solid pair of TEs in terms of capabilities. Injuries made them available to the Packers in R2 Pick #42 and R3 Pick #78.

Prior to the Combine, Athlon’s had Kraft #18 overall & Musgrave #23 overall in their Top 100 Players Ranking. Both high character guys.

I think Musgrave makes the greater impact immediately of any of our 2023 draft class. Kraft will take more time being an in-line TE and from a small school.

Love the Kraft pick.

9 points
10
1
Guam's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:18 am

"I love that Gutekunst selected both Musgrave & Kraft."

Gute doesn't fix positions by half measures. Remember three O-linemen or three WRs in one draft? When Gute sees talent and has a hole to fill, he makes sure it is filled. I would love to see both work out, but will be happy if it is just one and the Packers finally have a TE who can both block and be a receiving threat.

7 points
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greengold's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:45 pm

Spot on, Guam.

Gotta say, I think Musgrave will be a surprise this season. Envisioning Musgrave, Watson and Doubs benefiting from all the mismatches this O will present.

Kraft will find a ton of opportunities in time.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:04 am

Everything I've read and seen about the players we took on the second day makes me think they're going to energize the offense. Kraft absolutely is going to get his guy blocked. Of course he'll struggle against older, stronger, more experienced TEs, but he's going to get his guy blocked, and that's a key to the LaFleur offense moving: You have to get guys blocked. That's always true.

Musgrave is going to change our concept of what a TE is. When he lines up on the field with Watson, Doubs, Deguara, and Jones, the defense has some problems.

Is this a 2 TE offense, or is it a 3 WR offense? Because he could line up as a big slot and go in motion. He could stay out wide and be the blocking WR on runs that Lazard was. You could put Deguara on the line, or in motion, or use him as a lead blocker.

IMO, Musgrave kind of puts the finger on the scale. Because if he lines up wide, you're looking at man coverage with a single safety. That might not be safe. If he lines up tight, and we put 3 WRs on the field with him, that puts the opponent in the nickel and covering him with a linebacker. Meanwhile, there are only six run defenders on the field.

A while ago there was a column asking which rookie would have the biggest impact, and I said Van Ness, but upon further review, I think Musgrave is going to be part of this recharged offense.

In simplest terms, I see Kraft as a younger Lewis, and Musgrave as a more talented Tonyan/Lazard hybrid.

4 points
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greengold's picture

June 20, 2023 at 06:06 pm

Yes. 2 TE. 3 WR… and more. Pretty much anything any contemporary offensive mastermind could dream up. Gutekunst was finally able to deliver the last of the pieces to complete MLF’s tool chest. Any concept he wants to run, he has the starters - PLUS - backups.

Nearly all truly untested save for 1 season for Watson, Doubs, Toure. Some will meet expectations, some will exceed. Hopefully none disappoint, but the WR room alone is 9 deep? More?

Imagine, this is relatively early. The oldest veteran WR in GB is starting his 2nd season. Maybe Gutekunst adds higher picks to skill positions next year. Or, maybe he won’t have to.

It’s a multiple offense the likes of which we have not seen since Holmgren. Dynamic mix of receiving talents on one roster like I may have never seen in my long lifetime. I’m confident the whole group will bust out, and I’m stoked about all of these players.

Love expands… the playbook! He’s also on record he will be hitting whoever is open. Refreshing.

-2 points
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2
jannes bjornson's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:11 am

Hopefully, Kraft wins the starter's job. He has a better portfolio as far as production. Musgrave is a big guy from an Air Raid scheme for the outside passing game. Kraft was my guy, all day. Easily a number Two pick. They were lucky he was around.

5 points
5
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Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:40 am

Assuming nobody is injured, I think that when we line up against the Bears, it'll be Deguara at TE, along with Watson and Doubs and Jones, but I'm not sure who the 5th skill position player will be. I'd assume Toure and Reed would be our #3/4 WRs.

Deguara is in his contract year, he knows the playbook and the coaches and his teammates, he's been practicing with Love for years. So he'll start, and if he produces, he'll stay in the lineup and get a second contract from someone. I wouldn't think it would be in Green Bay.

IMO, our BEST lineup is going to be Jones/Dillon at RB, Watson and Doubs at WR, Kraft as our inline TE, and Musgrave/Reed as our slot. That's 7 of the 10 skill position players we suit up, and we'd still have Deguara, Toure, and the #3 RB.

If we can force teams to play nickel and then run on the six run defenders with Kraft and the Oline, I think that works for us the best.

3 points
3
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TKWorldWide's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:44 am

I am picking up what you are putting down.

2 points
2
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jannes bjornson's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:57 pm

Why play to lose? Deguara would have taken the job two years ago, if he was the guy. 12 sets with Musgrave and Kraft causing damage. Just do it.

4 points
4
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Coldworld's picture

June 20, 2023 at 05:58 pm

Deguara may get to be the guy he was picked to be in an offense that’s close to the offense he was picked for. I see them all getting time, but Musgrave playing big WR in reality.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 21, 2023 at 10:28 am

Yes, Deguara, a rookie, was going to beat out Lewis and Tonyan. Because experience is useless.

1 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 20, 2023 at 06:32 am

I think it just demonstrates how hard it is to draft, and how hard it is to play in the NFL.

Complain about the 3rd round curse. Most teams even in our division have curses all through the drafts. Should I mention Mitch T?

I think this whole draft class is on the way to contribute this season. Even an undrafted rookie will help I think (Cox). Happens every season.

14 points
14
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NickPerry's picture

June 20, 2023 at 06:50 am

"Complain about the 3rd round curse. Most teams even in our division have curses all through the drafts. Should I mention Mitch T?"

T7Steve...I think you/we should ALWAYS mention Mitch T and the Bears together.

Could you imagine if the Bears actually had competent a GM in place they could have drafted Patrick M instead of Mitch T...

Just a HUGE Thank you to Ryan Pace...EX Bears GM!

8 points
8
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T7Steve's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:06 am

Unlike the Chiefs, the Bears probably would have wrecked Patrick M's career too. The Bears don't build their team from the lines out. Think they can add a flashy piece and be contenders.

HINT, HINT, HINT!

5 points
5
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LambeauPlain's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:49 am

The Wise Walrus, Reid, had the wisdom, and luxury to keep Mahomes on the bench his rookie year even though the QB whisperer coach knew Patrick was more talented than Alex. But Smith was playing well in 2017.

The bares would have started Mahomes as a rookie possessing neither wisdom nor the luxury not to and would have probably "Trubiskeyed" him.

7 points
7
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dblbogey's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:02 pm

On average, across the league, by their 4th year, 2/3 of 3rd round draft picks are no longer on the team.

Round Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
1 99.7% 93.5% 83.9% 77.4% 71.0%
2 96.8% 96.1% 83.9% 74.2% 41.9%
3 96.9% 75.1% 62.5% 37.5% 18.8%
4 91.4% 74.3% 54.3% 34.3% 17.2%
5 81.1% 56.8% 37.8% 24.3% 16.2%
6 70.2% 57.5% 35.3% 20.9% 10.6%
7 58.3% 45.8% 31.3% 21.7% 16.7%

2 points
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stockholder's picture

June 20, 2023 at 06:57 am

What Curse ? - Try Stupidity!
This is exactly where I can blast Gutey.
TT had problems.
And Gutey just can't take the BPA in rd 3.
The No Brainer is take the guy that drops.
We still needed back -up at LB.
Well what the hell was wrong with Trenton Simpson.
His ankle healed and was considered the best LB.
Next- you took Kraft over Darnell Washington TE.?
And I can keep going on with these 3rd rd picks.
I get Gutey wants a job after the packers.
But when you point to curse.
I'll point to a GM that is trying to beat the odds.
Praise Gutey all you want. But it's obvious.
Gutey buys what he needs. And up to now.
If the guy isn't a #1 pick. It was on Rodgers.

-15 points
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Packers0808's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:42 am

And away we go again.

10 points
13
3
LambeauPlain's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:53 am

Yes. And more bitter bleats likely.

6 points
8
2
10ve 💚's picture

June 20, 2023 at 09:52 am

More painful than his rant is his rambling!

So difficult to understand the actual words, though I get it that he regrets buying stock.

4 points
6
2
packer132's picture

June 20, 2023 at 09:03 am

Another SH post that makes no sense. Recent experts had Gute at the #6 or #8 best GM in the NFL. Of course, you know better. How about a positive outlook for the upcoming season and something good to say, I read all posts and always laugh at your crazy thoughts. It's sad that you are so unhappy, Maybe try following soccer?

7 points
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3
jannes bjornson's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:28 am

No doubt, the Evidence File on this guy's draft acumen reveals some big time blanks. One for Seven with Kraft showing promise. Maybe he goes 3/7 if Rhyan shows up in the competition for a starting spot during Summer Session. Deguara should be used more creatively by the two-hour interview guy. I would have moved on from this guy and Ball, before the Coup. They needed a fresh approach in the personnel dept. Just the thought of selecting a guy like Burks as an ILB when the Film and scouting presented a guy knocked backwards by SEC
O linemen. Amari, good Lord? Sternberger a WR trying to learn a new position? Montravious, say what?

0 points
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4
TKWorldWide's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:47 am

Who in the blue hell is Hood?

1 points
2
1
marpag1's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:16 pm

I think he means Little Red Riding Hood.

1 points
2
1
stockholder's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:38 pm

Kraft - but. then you knew that.

0 points
3
3
TKWorldWide's picture

June 20, 2023 at 03:34 pm

Yeah, like when I write Smithers, but you. Know.i.mean.mahomes.

2 points
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2
dblbogey's picture

June 20, 2023 at 12:53 pm

Following the Packers seems to make you miserable. Maybe switch allegiance to the Cleveland Browns, or watch women's professional cornhole events.

-2 points
2
4
T7Steve's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:08 pm

"women's professional cornhole events."

How disgusting! LOL

0 points
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Packers0808's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:23 pm

Corn hole is an actual game where tossing bean bag at elevated board with hole in it. Quite similar to horse shoe throwing. Why everything today has to be dirty thinking?

3 points
3
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T7Steve's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:48 pm

Sorry. I know what it is. Just a bad attempt at humor, I guess. Didn't realize I'd get chastised for it.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:40 pm

How to keep stockholders happy-
1. Communication
2. Transparency
3. Accountability
4. PROCESS FOR DISPUTES
5. LISTEN TO YOUR SHAREHOLDERS
6. Appreciation
7. Keep your Promises
8. Increasing the value of the company
9. The right Direction
10. Leadership

0 points
2
2
jannes bjornson's picture

June 20, 2023 at 04:39 pm

Well, we know Ted ran from the scrutiny during the Q& A when the meeting was held in the Atrium. Since that fateful day the brain trust moved the Event to the 50 yard line and banned Bullhorns in the audience.

2 points
2
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Packers0808's picture

June 20, 2023 at 04:02 pm

Oh no, really thought didn't know what game was called!

1 points
1
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Coach Cleve Steamer's picture

June 20, 2023 at 04:25 pm

That’s sad. Thought you were an adult.

1 points
1
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Packers0808's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:45 pm

delete

-1 points
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2
croatpackfan's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:14 am

"His (J. Deguara) hands have been an issue in big spots and he isn’t very fast in space."

I do not understand why you need to put in every of yours articles at least one sentence that does not keep the facts. Go and watch those 2 TD Deguara scored during his tenure in Green Bay. First was high velocity bullet from Packers QB (I forgot his name) to the end zone when announers was impressed how rookie was able to catch that ball (his hands?) and second one was from Jordan Love short pass he brought to the end zone for 40 yards. At the end find the short clip from this year OTAs where Joshiah Deguara catch the pass with one hand as you can see from Beckham.

I agree he is not fast as Watson, Reed, Melton, but he has the football intelligence to open himself down the field for possible pass to him. And we all knows that in the past when Packers had QB1 who has his favorite targets and just ignore others, no matter how good or bad they are/were.

So, claiming that Packers has 3rd round curse is - first - ridiculous and - second - strange that you believe in that strange "phenomena" as curses and sorcery. Maybe you read to many books about sorcerers.

EDIT: https://www.packers.com/video/josiah-deguara-catches-first-career-td-pac...

2 points
6
4
Duneslick's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:43 pm

2 tds in his career say it all. Not productive and not thrown to. If he was they would be throwing to him

-3 points
0
3
GregC's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:22 am

Well, for what it's worth, Jace Sternberger is lighting up the USFL, leading the league with 6 TDs in 9 games, and may very well play himself back into the NFL. He was always regarded as a project, though, and he had a couple of injuries that stunted his development. Tucker Kraft seems much more NFL-ready.

7 points
8
1
LambeauPlain's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:51 am

It may be Sternberger has also decided to stay off the sauce and the substances. That is one decision that improves everyone's prospects.

For his sake I hope he has, and continues to do so and does make it back to the NFL.

6 points
6
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dblbogey's picture

June 20, 2023 at 12:56 pm

USFL is like double A baseball. Sorry, Jace doesn't have what it takes for the NFL.

1 points
1
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Savage57's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:43 am

A little harsh with the "average at best", "won't take much to outplay" comment for Kyler Fackrell.

All he did was lead the team in sacks in 2018, on a team with CMIII, Nick Perry, and Kenny Clark.

Think Kraft's going to lead the team in catches, yards or TD's in year 3, and will he be 'average at best' for doing so?

10 points
10
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LambeauPlain's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:01 am

Fackrell also got those sacks with far fewer opportunities to rush the passer as Pettine used him regularly in pass D.

Fackrell was solid in pass D too which doesn't stand out on the stat sheet.

3 points
3
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jannes bjornson's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:39 am

He's now on his fifth team.

3 points
3
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10ve 💚's picture

June 20, 2023 at 09:54 am

Don't be too harsh on Cory this time. This is one of his "less bad" pieces 😀.

1 points
3
2
marpag1's picture

June 20, 2023 at 01:21 pm

Yes it is. But even so, it still has the strangest ending of any article in the history of journalism.

0 points
1
1
TxFred's picture

June 20, 2023 at 07:46 am

Blue color, hard nose football, not afraid, to hit a linebacker. Cory, I truly hope so. Will be refreshing to watch vs this "entertainment crap" the league as been pushing. Maybe grass stains & dirt on the uniforms, what a concept.

7 points
7
0
RCPackerFan's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:13 am

Maybe its not as much of a curse as its more about the player pool they are selecting from, isn't great.

Here is another thought. Maybe the 3rd round is just not that great of a round to draft in? Sure you can find some great players, but as you will see below there are not a lot of stars picked after the Packers made their selection.

2020 the Packers took Deguara with the 94th pick. These are the 10 following picks. McTelvin Agim (DT), Lucas Niang (T), Jacob Phillips (LB), Malik Harrison (LB), Matt Peart (T), Tanner Muse (DB), Dalton Keene (TE), Alex Highsmith (DE), Davion Taylor (LB), Terrell Burgess (DB).

2021 the Packers took Amari Rodgers with the 85th pick. These are the 10 following picks. Wyatt Davis (G), Kendrick Green (G), Trey Sermon (RB), Nico Collins (WR), Patrick Jones (DE), Anthony Schwartz (WR), Monty Rice (LB), Spencer Brown (T), Ben Cleveland (G), Robert Hainsey (T)

2022 the Packers took Sean Rhyan with the 92nd pick. These are the following picks. Tyrion Davis-Price (RB), Matt Corral (QB), Zachary Carter (DT), Nick Cross (DB), Kerby Joseph (DB), Brian Robinson (RB), David Bell (WR), Myjai Sanders (DE), Jeremy Ruckert (TE), Channing Tindall (LB).

4 points
4
0
Savage57's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:26 am

The Packers GM is expected to find Pro Bowlers at worst in every round.

At least according to the guy busy licking Rodger's knob and pointing his finger at Gute.

-1 points
4
5
Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:34 am

I think you're on target there RC.

In fact, I went back about 5 years and looked at the 3rd round. Most of the guys are still in the league, but not all. Most of them weren't anything better than Just A Guy, but one notable exception was Mark Andrews. We took Oren Burks.

Still, 22 positions means that by 88 you've gone through the Top 4 at every position if there's been a random distribution, which there isn't. That means that at some positions, you're going to be able to draft a guy who is in the Top 3, or even Top 2, at their position in college. Can the 3rd best RG in the country play in the pros? I should hope so.

I'm not able to explain what appears to be a dearth of successful 3rd round picks, not only for the Packers, but for the league in general.

2 points
2
0
LambeauPlain's picture

June 20, 2023 at 09:05 am

Good post RC!

Facts always destroy narratives. How many pro bowlers or Top rookies are on that list of 30-3rds after Gutey selected his?

The 3rd may be a bit of a "reach" round as teams see their preferred draft board beginning to splinter in spots and increasingly grasp for need vs BAP.

4 points
4
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RCPackerFan's picture

June 20, 2023 at 10:08 am

That very well could be the case in that teams reach more for position then the players themselves.

1 points
1
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GLM's picture

June 20, 2023 at 09:17 am

Mostly spot on. Kerby Joseph would have been a great pick last year. And, DB/S would not have so many question marks this year.

4 points
4
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jannes bjornson's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:47 am

Would you rather have Kerby Joseph, or Savage/Amos in the deep spot in 2022 ? Amari Rodgers was no comparison with Amon-Ra St.Brown, or Nico Collins as productive college WRs. His selection is an obvious scouting failure.

2 points
3
1
LeotisHarris's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:36 am

I think it's more of a third round reload than a curse. Certainly not a hex or a jinx. Might be a rebuild.

3 points
4
1
T7Steve's picture

June 20, 2023 at 09:09 am

Don't you think Gute always reaches in the third round? We almost always pick so late that I think he tries to steal a top 4th rounder or at least a person to fill a roll the coach wants

You have to nail the first couple rounds. The rest are projects and fillers anyway.

2 points
2
0
Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 10:37 am

Steve, I think you have to make those top 100, or 115 picks, count. These guys are All-Americans, All Conference, Academic All Americans, and the winners and finalists for awards like the Heisman and others. They're the cream.

Looking back, it doesn't seem like the 3rd round is nearly as good as you'd think it should be. Let's take the 3rd round of the 2016 draft. The previous season was the year without Jordy, but in 2016, we made it to the Championship game against Atlanta. We were pretty good that year.

In the third round, we picked 88th. Kyler Fackrell. He's still in the league,along with 20 other guys from the 3rd round. About 5 guys, out of the next 25 taken, have a higher career AV than Fackrell. This would mean that Fackrell was a lot better pick than some of the guys taken shortly after him. The guy taken right after him was a DT named Hargrave that Pittsburgh took, and he has had a better career than Fackrell. And 10 picks later, Denver took Justin Simmons and he's been a very good safety for them. But that's about it.

The steal of the draft was when Kansas City took a flyer on Tyreek Hill in the 5th. He has the highest career AV of anybody drafted that year.

4 points
4
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T7Steve's picture

June 20, 2023 at 10:47 am

With his speed, why did Hill drop so far? I can't remember.

0 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 20, 2023 at 10:47 am

farther

0 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 20, 2023 at 10:59 am

Because Ty Hill beat up his pregnant girlfriend in college and was a player without position. He wasnt even a receiver in college. He is one of the most extreme outliers.

3 points
3
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Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:47 am

And he was tiny, and he played at a tiny school in a tiny program that had a career winning % of .432. And when I look down the list of distinguished alumni, Hill is clearly the most outstanding, followed by Malcolm Butler (The CB from New England) and our own Charles Martin.

A long, long shot, but he's faster than hell and he had Mahomes throwing the rock. If he'd been taken by .....the Bears, for example....I doubt he would have had the career he's had.

3 points
3
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 20, 2023 at 12:12 pm

He actually started playing Juco ball then transfered to Oklahoma St. for a year before going to West Alabama for his last year.

1 points
1
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LambeauPlain's picture

June 20, 2023 at 08:38 am

Very excited to see what the TEs will do this year. Musgrave and Kraft should benefit from refocused play calling to coordinate the attack with both Infantry and Air Force...with the RBs and TEs heavily involved in both.

And maybe this reads a bit counter-intuitive...but I believe this refocus on the TEs and utilizing the middle field will lead to Deguara having his best year.

The NFL TE position is described as one of the most difficult one to learn for rookies. Deguara can, and should get his most opportunities as a Packer...this year...especially in the first half of the season, as Musgrave and Kraft learn.

2 points
3
1
Leatherhead's picture

June 20, 2023 at 12:07 pm

The RBs are already heavily involved, getting the ball on about 50% of the snaps. That's going to leave about 30 plays for everybody else.

I'm assuming some of them will go to the WRs. We'll fire the big gun (Watson) as much as we can, and Doubs is going to get targets, too. Let's say 15 targets/10 completions to them. That leaves us with 15 plays to split among our #3 and #4 WRs (Reed and Toure, at this point) and all the TEs.

So let's say we'll throw 5 passes to Reed/ Toure, and we'll complete at least 3. That leaves us with 10 for the TE unit, which would be a substantial increase from the 6 targets per game we managed last year. If you gave Musgrave 5 of those targets, and split the other 5 between Kraft and Deguara, that would be 85 targets for Musgrave on the season. If you assume a 66% catch rate, that would give him over 50 catches this year. Just like Tonyan last year.

Truly, I'm really not expecting a big change in the Packers offense. I think you'll see the ball in the hands of Jones and Dillon and Watson quite a bit, probably nearly 2/3 of the plays. Our TE will block on all runs and some passes. We'll still throw the WR screen a couple of times a game. We'll still stay on the field on offense pretty well. The biggest change I'm expecting is that we'll just have more successful scoring drives. Last season , the offense seemed to stop itself too often, even after the line got fixed.

0 points
1
1
PackEyedOptimist's picture

June 20, 2023 at 11:20 am

I’m hoping Kraft will be like the typical successful Dallas TEs, or Paul Coffman, and Musgrave will be like a young Jimmy Graham or a better Jermichael Finley.
There are some other interesting TE prospects on the roster as well!

4 points
4
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mnbadger's picture

June 20, 2023 at 12:45 pm

I'm rooting for the TE comparisons/projections PEO!
I think all are reasonable and in reach.
GPG!

1 points
1
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NoNonsense's picture

June 20, 2023 at 09:37 pm

Big fan of Tucker Kraft, he's a throwback dual threat TE. To get him in the 3rd was a steal. He might not be Mark Andrew's or Travis Kelce good right away but in 2 or 3 years he's gonna be a top TE in the league similar to those guys, who were also taken in the 3rd round.

Curse be damned.

3 points
3
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