It’s a second straight NFC West showdown for the 3-2 Packers, this time hosting the 2-3 Cardinals at Lambeau Field. Green Bay will have back-to-back AFC contests in the coming weeks, but first they need to take care of business against another NFC opponent and keep pace with a hotly contested NFC North. 

1. If There’s No Will, There’s Still a Way

The Cardinals placed starting right guard Will Hernandez on season-ending injured reserve earlier this week with a knee injury. He was having a strong start to the season, ranked 19th by Pro Football Focus out of 70 qualifying guards with an overall grade of 69.4. Trystan Colon is expected to get the start on Sunday in Hernandez’s place. 

Arizona has a solid offensive line through five weeks of football, with left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. the highest-graded offensive player on the team with a grade of 82.6. He ranks ninth out of 78 tackle prospects. Center Hjalte Froholdt has also played well, earning a grade of 73.3 and a position ranking of seventh out of 35 eligible centers. 

Quarterback Kyler Murray has taken 11 sacks in five games, so he’s had solid protection behind his offensive line. In contrast, the Packers are still struggling to generate pressure, and Murray is just as much a rushing threat as he is a passing threat. Murray has 247 rushing yards already this season, which is more than he had in eight games in 2023. He’s averaging an impressive 10.7 yards per attempt, which is a career-best. 

Green Bay is averaging 3.2 sacks per game and has posted 16 sacks through five weeks, with half of those coming against the Titans in Week 3. The pass rush simply has to do more to generate pressure to not give opposing quarterbacks time to get comfortable in the pocket. 

2. Run to Daylight

The Packers have the third-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 164.8 yards per game on the ground. The Cardinals are directly behind them with the fourth overall spot, averaging 156.4 yards themselves. 

Green Bay is fifth in the league in both attempts (160) and yards per attempt (5.2), but all the way down at 20th when it comes to rushing touchdowns. Surprisingly, Josh Jacobs only has one touchdown so far this season, though he’s picked up 21 first downs and is averaging 4.5 yards per attempt. His 402 rushing yards are good for fourth in the league behind Derrick Henry, Jordan Mason, and Saquon Barkley. 

For Arizona, James Conner isn’t too far behind ranking seventh in the league with 379 rushing yards and three touchdowns this season. Kyler Murray is the not-so-secret weapon for the Cardinals in the run game, ranking 23rd in the league (yes, ahead of multiple running backs) and behind only Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels when it comes to quarterbacks. He has those aforementioned 247 rushing yards with one rushing touchdown through five weeks. 

The Cardinals don’t run the ball as often as the Packers do, ranking 13th in the league in rushing attempts, but they’re arguably even more effective when they do, averaging 5.5 yards per carry which ranks third in the NFL. 

Conversely, the Cardinals defense struggles to defend the run. While the Packers defense has improved in that area and ranks 15th in attempts (129), 11th in yards (571), and 16th in yards per attempt (4.4), Arizona drops all the way to 27th in attempts (159), 28th in yards (739), and 20th in yards per attempt (4.6). The Cardinals have given up over 130-plus rushing yards in four of their five games this season, with their lone defensive stand coming in their lopsided 41-10 win against the Rams. The Packers should have plenty of opportunities to get Josh Jacobs going and run against this defense on Sunday. 

3. For Safety’s Sake

I used to think the more we talked about Xavier McKinney’s interception-streak, the more likely we were to jinx it. Now it’s to the point where we might jinx it by not talking about it. Five interceptions in five games is simply unreal, and that isn’t including his fumble recovery for his sixth turnover already this season. 

Pro Football Focus ranks McKinney first out of 80 eligible safeties with an elite overall grade of 90.8. After Evan Williams’ performance against the Rams last week, he also qualifies for his own PFF grade, and it doesn’t disappoint. Williams ranks ninth amongst all safeties by PFF metrics with an overall grade of 81.3. Together, McKinney and Williams are the two highest-graded players on Green Bay’s defense. 

We saw Jeff Hafley get creative with his defense last week in Jaire Alexander’s absence, keeping Williams and Javon Bullard on the field at the same time. When Alexander comes back, which should hopefully be on Sunday, the Packers should still have Bullard and Williams on the field together alongside McKinney and Alexander. The rookies are playing too well to take them out of the secondary. For comparison’s sake, Alexander is currently ranked 16th out of 101 cornerbacks by PFF with an overall grade of 73.6. 

This secondary will have its hands full against rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. He already has four touchdowns through five weeks and leads the team with 279 receiving yards. Tight end Trey McBride leads the offense in receptions and is another reliable target for Murray, but Green Bay will need to account for Harrison Jr. at all times. If the Packers can lock him up one-on-one with Alexander, it’ll go a long way towards victory on Sunday, especially if McKinney can make some turnover magic happen on the backend. 

Murray has thrown two interceptions and fumbled twice, and the forecast looks like it’ll be a rainy day on Sunday. Every drive is going to matter for both teams, and the Packers could run away with this one if they’re able to capitalize on a turnover or two. 

4. A Crafty Tight End 

Tucker Kraft is having an incredible start to his sophomore season and has emerged without contest as Green Bay’s primary tight end. Kraft ranks second on the team behind Jayden Reed (414) with 218 receiving yards and is the only other player on Green Bay’s offense with over 200. His three touchdowns are also tied for the team lead alongside Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. 

The third-round pick from 2023 is playing 83% of offensive snaps so far this season, along with 41% of special teams snaps. His playing time should only increase if Luke Musgrave ends up on injured reserve with his ankle injury. Kraft is currently seventh in the NFL at the tight end position when it comes to yards, despite being 14th in receptions (16). Kraft is also tied with Isaiah Likely for second among all tight ends with three scores apiece. George Kittle leads the league with five after his two-score performance on Thursday night.

Kraft is making a name for himself as a big-play weapon, too. Through five games, Kraft has four receptions of 20-plus yards. That’s tied for second in the league with Tyler Conklin behind only Brock Bowers (5) and Dallas Goedert (5). 

Compared to 2023 when Kraft finished the season with 355 yards and two touchdowns, he’s on pace for 741 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024. 

5. Big Play Ability

Per the Packers, Weeks 4 and 5 of this season are the only time in the last 45 years that Green Bay recorded 95-plus yard drives in consecutive games. Through five weeks, it’s easy to see how the Packers are sustaining such long drives. 

Green Bay leads the NFL in explosive plays (a play over 20-plus yards) with 27 in five weeks, 20 passing plays and seven rushing plays. The Packers offense has a long of 34 yards on the ground and 70 yards through the air. 

The Packers typically find themselves with average starting field position on their own 30.8-yard line, which ranks 12th in the NFL. They’re eighth in the league in points for averaging 25.6 points per game, and fourth in total yards going for 392.6 yards of offense each week. 

While the red zone struggles are improving slightly, ranked 18th now in red zone offense and scoring touchdowns 50% of the time, the offense still needs to improve on third (37.1%) and fourth down (33.3%) conversions. Against the Rams, Green Bay went 1-of-8 on third downs. That number will simply need to improve against better teams and better defenses.

6. As it Stands

Just like the Packers are trying to keep things close in the NFC North, the only division with every team over .500 (Vikings 5-0, Lions 3-1, Bears 3-2), the Cardinals are right in the thick of things in the NFC West. After Thursday Night Football, the Seahawks and 49ers are tied at 3-3, the Cardinals are third at 2-3, and the Rams sit in last place at 1-4. The Cardinals are 2-0 in the division so far, which bodes well for them when it comes to tiebreakers later on in the season. 

The National Football Conference as a whole is pretty stacked, with 8 teams over .500 through five weeks. That’s in contrast to the AFC where only six teams have winning records. 

If the season were to end today, the Packers would be right outside of the playoffs ranked eighth overall in the NFC. With a win on Sunday, Green Bay’s playoff chances jump to 54%. While it’s still incredibly early and there’s a lot of season left, it does help to illustrate how tight the NFC race has been through five games. The Vikings are on a bye week in Week 6 but have a current playoff probability of 93%. The Lions are at 75% odds currently.  That jumps to 81% with a win and drops down to 63% with a loss against the Cowboys this week. With both the Buccaneers (sixth seed) and Cowboys (seventh seed) at 3-2, a loss by either team and a win for Green Bay on Sunday would put the Packers right back into the Wild Card picture. 

Again, I realize it’s too early to be talking about the playoffs, but it’s helpful to look at just how tight the NFC race is, knowing the Packers are currently 1-2 in NFC contests. But enough of that, right? Just win, baby.