Not Your Average Third-Place Schedule for the Packers in 2025
There are precious few soft spots on Green Bay's 2025 schedule.
By markoldacres
After the 2024 Packers finished third in the NFC North, one consolation was that a third-place schedule could set them up for success in 2025, given Green Bay was not your average third-place divisional team.
That did not exactly go to plan though, as their 2025 slate is not your average third-place schedule either.
The tough division the Packers play in contributes massively to making their upcoming fixture list not look as hospitable as they would probably like.
No one in NFC North has an over/under of lower than 8.5 wins for the 2025 season, with the Lions at 10.5, the Packers at 9.5, and the Vikings and Bears at 8.5.
Green Bay went 1-5 against the division last year, with the lone win coming courtesy of a last-second field goal block against Chicago. They will have to improve against NFC North foes in 2025 to better their standing within the division at the end of the year.
A strong division record will be even more imperative this year, as the rest of their schedule is not exactly a walk in the park either.
In fact, the Packers only face three opponents this season with an over/under of lower than 8.5, the Panthers at home (6.5), the Browns on the road (4.5) and the Giants on the road (6.5).
Those are ‘gimmes’ in theory, but even then, the Packers have not beaten the Giants since 2019, losing their last two matchups, one in London in 2022 and another at MetLife stadium to Tommy DeVito in 2023.
On the flipside, Green Bay plays six games against teams with 10.5 or better over/unders: Detroit twice, Washington, and Cincinnati are all at 10.5, while Philadelphia and Baltimore are at 11.5.
An early bye, coming at the earliest possible time in week five, will not help matters. In the last seven weeks of the season, Green Bay will not play an opponent with an over/under of lower than 8.5, which could have given them some respite.
The average over/under of the teams they play in that final stretch is 9.35, and includes five of their six divisional games, with their NFC North matchups backloaded other than the week one meeting with Detroit.
During that daunting run, their last significant rest at the bye week will feel like ancient history, and the late stages of the season could feel like a real slog.
It is at this point the significant depth general manager Brian Gutekunst has built up across the roster could prove absolutely vital.
Being able to rotate players to keep them fresh, or having serviceable backups for when injuries inevitably hit could give Green Bay the edge over their opponents in some difficult and significant games towards the end of the year.
The Packers do have the benefit of playing five out of the six games against these strong opponents at home, with the trip to face the Lions on Thanksgiving the only road game.
Unfortunately though, only one of those home games against the more formidable opponents comes in the final eight weeks of the season, when the Packers host the Ravens in week 17.
That means Green Bay gets very little benefit from the frozen tundra in 2025, which can prove a significant advantage against teams who are not used to playing in frigid conditions.
There is an inherent folly to analyzing an NFL schedule months before a ball is kicked off, and even further from when teams reveal themselves to be better or worse than anyone thought, or get decimated by injuries.
But in terms of the logistics of the Packers’ schedule, and the general strength of their opponents, there are very few, if any soft spots or true situational advantages baked in. Green Bay is going to have to earn everything they get in 2025.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
__________________________
Comments (42)
T7Steve
May 19, 2025 at 06:17 am
It's good there are no real soft spots. The soft spots always seem to bite the Packers anyway. They need to start to play at their own level not their opponents'. Whomever they play, their opponent looks at it as a playoff tune-up/preview or it is their Super Bowl because the Packers get most of the stadiums filled up.
Hopefully the Packers aren't looking at the schedule. All they need to do is look at the first game and come out swinging. Let us BSers worry and make comments about the schedule.
murf7777
May 19, 2025 at 08:29 am
Well said…
LambeauPlain
May 19, 2025 at 09:41 am
Thumbs up, Steve.
Packers need to start strong and go 1-0 in the standings and the Division.
Will LaFleur will again use the preseason games for backup auditions and "rest" starters...or approach game 1 with enhanced urgency?
Since 2021, they have started slow. They lost their first games of the season in 2021, 2022, started 2-7 in 2023, and lost to the Eagles to start last season.
And Last year, in disappointing fashion, they backed into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 6 games, with 3 losses in the Division and then to the Eagles to bow out of the playoffs.
I believe this is a big year for LaFleur to step it up and win in the playoffs and hopefully, finally get to a SB.
T7Steve
May 19, 2025 at 09:56 am
We can only hope that he plans some intensive joint practices with the preseason teams if he's not going to give any looks to the starters till week one. I just believe that the O and D-lines need to get their game legs. It really shows in the 2nd half if they play a team that has their legs under them, and they don't. The "skill" people usually don't need that and don't play too much preseason on any team unless they're rookies, QBs, or newer players.
Leatherhead
May 19, 2025 at 10:31 am
We don't win openers, but I don't think 6-2 or 9-3 can be considered slow starts.
We did lose four of our last six after a 9-3 start last year, and finished 11-7. That, to me, would not indicate a slow start.
I totally, 100% agree that all we need to do is come out and smash the Lions in the opener. And I totally agree that we should get to the Super Bowl.
Gutekunst gets hired. Among the questions he was asked in the interview is "What's The Plan". It's apparent that he said something along the lines of
"We're going to squeeze as much as we can out of Rodgers, and we're going to draft and develop his replacement, and that's the guy who is going to get us to the Super Bowl.""
So, Scouting and Personnel went to work. They did their due diligence. The coaching staff has been working with Love for 5 years now, they've put a line in front of him, a good running game behind him, and some good targets for him to throw to. He's not "inexperienced".
So, if we fail to get to the Super Bowl in the next couple of years, I think The Plan hasn't worked. Point fingers wherever you want. Another season of 11-6 and a wildcard loss isn't going to be an improvement.
Starrbrite
May 19, 2025 at 03:04 pm
Yes—well said!!
Cheezehead72
May 19, 2025 at 06:22 am
There are no soft or gimme games in the NFL. Also it is too early to tell what is going to happen. Right now all teams are tied at 0-0. I cannot wait for the season to begin.
LambeauPlain
May 19, 2025 at 10:01 am
Yes, and by design NFL is the most competitive league in pro sports.
The trip from worst to first and vice versa in the NFL can be a short journey.
Every season a few teams surprise and a few tumble. Injuries and coaching being wild cards. For example the Commanders soared under Dan Quinn and the team he left, the Cowboys & McCarthy, tumbled without his defense.
mnbadger
May 19, 2025 at 07:36 am
If we don't fix last year's problems; qb inconsistency, drops, turnovers, disjointed locker room, penalties, special teams gaffes, coaching and challenge challenges, etc., the schedule doesn't matter IMO.
If we improve all of the above (no reason we can't) there's enough talent for us to compete with and win no matter whom, where or when we play.
GPG!
Coldworld
May 19, 2025 at 08:41 am
In the NFL one never knows who will be good and who will be bad aside from about a ten percent of teams in any given year. Part of that is parity and part injury luck. Yet every year the schedule release is always a source of fake drama for writers in this dead point of the football year.
It’s simple: win a few more games than you lose while staying reasonably healthy. In reality that’s the barometer of a decent team with the necessary dose of decent luck. Winning teams win games through adversity in a parity league. At least for now, that starts with winning one’s division. The way towards that is to get better than we were, as that’s all we can control and should be our only focus as a team and as coaches and players individually.
That starts by coming out on fire, ready to play as a unit and with a tactically superior game plan in the context of our player choices in week one against the last Division winner in Detroit and then in game two against Washington. What a superb couple of opportunities to make a statement and give us a leg up on the season.
Over to you Mr LaFleur. You have the weapons and, based upon last year, finally a defense that can support you. Now you need to deliver.
GregC
May 19, 2025 at 09:27 am
Not to mention that we already knew all of the opponents they would face and whether they would be home games or away games. And there are only three games against teams that the Lions, Vikings, and Bears will not play. Those teams are the Cardinals, Panthers, and Broncos. Not too scary.
T7Steve
May 19, 2025 at 10:01 am
Remember! Those "not too scary" teams include one of the best Ds from last season (Broncos), a team that was up and coming at the end of last season (Cardinals), and one who always seems to play their best against the Packers (Panthers).
GregC
May 19, 2025 at 10:23 am
My point was that the Packers' schedule is not significantly harder than the schedules of the other teams in the division. Obviously there are no gimmes.
For the record, the three different teams the Vikings play are the Falcons, Chargers, and Seahawks. The Lions play the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Rams. The Bears play the Raiders, Saints, and 49ers.
T7Steve
May 19, 2025 at 10:45 am
Thanks. Could be allot of West coast swings for those teams. I know from someone here (I think) that the Packers have short flying time/distance this season but can't remember how they compare to the others.
Starrbrite
May 19, 2025 at 03:07 pm
Except we never win in Denver—-geez I hate the Broncos!!!
dobber
May 19, 2025 at 03:45 pm
Every game played in Denver takes them closer to their next win in Denver.
LeotisHarris
May 19, 2025 at 08:43 am
A John Madden story comes to mind here. Never mind that the horse is blind, just load the wagon. The rest will fall into place and we'll burn that bridge when we get to it.
Cheezehead72
May 19, 2025 at 09:02 am
To win you have to score one more goal than your opponent.
Johan Cruyff
Leatherhead
May 19, 2025 at 10:17 am
In Christian theology, that concept is "work the field". Nothing is going to grow without rain, and you can't do much about that. But you can plow the field. You can enrich the soil. You can plant. And that way, when the rain does come, you've prepared for it, instead of just waiting for the rain (or for the horse not to be blind).
I have no real idea how good or how bad the rest of the league is going to be this year, but I can look at this year's team in May, and compare it to last year's team in May, and when I do, I like what I see.
The putative starting Oline is better. The backups are more experienced. We've added Golden and Williams to the receiving group. The running back situation is as good as I can ever remember it . And our QB has another year of experience and is in his prime years.
Objectively, the offense should be better this year. If the defense can effectively replace Slaton, they should be better this year, too.
I don't worry about the strength of schedule in May. The Packers have almost 4 months to get their act together. No new schemes, only a few new players......it shouldn't take 4 months.
T7Steve
May 19, 2025 at 10:55 am
"I don't worry about the strength of schedule in May"
Only thing I worry about is health and people returning from injuries at this time. Kind of have the added worry about Jenkins' contract stuff, but I think that will get worked out. I just want him to be able to work from the get-go with Love and the rest of the line this spring and summer. I never was a fan of "vet rest" that's been coming up more and more and earlier and earlier. If a vet has a ding, maybe but not otherwise. These blocking schemes seem too tough to just wing it these days without working together all week.
LLCHESTY
May 19, 2025 at 07:17 pm
Just saw yesterday there's a new movie coming out about Madden with Nicolas Cage as Madden and Christian Bale as Al Davis. Bale is a chameleon but Cage seems a strange choice.
9 AFL/AFC championship game appearances in 11 years is still crazy.
Dragon5
May 19, 2025 at 09:57 am
Won't mince words here: take "woe me" "poor me" POVs and shove 'em in the f'n trash can.
Be the best by beating the best...
EARN IT!
Alberta_Packer
May 19, 2025 at 11:50 am
It seems that the only potential soft spots these days are within a team's division. For instance the AFC South, the AFC East and the NFC South - all divisions with 3 sub - .500 teams. Meanwhile the NFC North has become the Group of Death. Such is the flow and cycle of sports. Perhaps a good time to go Zen - just 'accept and transcend'.
Leatherhead
May 19, 2025 at 12:22 pm
Back in the day....2007, if I recall correctly...there were a couple of teams that did real well....Colts, Patriots, Packers, Cowboys during the regular season. A combined record of 55-9.
The next year, three of those teams regressed towards the mean. I expect it to be that way this year. Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia, KC. had 58 wins last year, and I suspect they'll be regressing to the mean this year.
Soft Spots? In 1997, the Packers were the defending Super Bowl champion and won 13 games. The hapless Colts finished 3-13, and were on their way to the #1 pick, and if any game ever looked like a soft spot, this was it.
The Colts beat us 41-38 for one of their 3 wins. Some people lost a pretty good chunk of money on that and decided to quit gambling on football.
Soft spots? No. Only hard spots and harder spots.
Alberta_Packer
May 19, 2025 at 01:13 pm
The ebbs and flows of competition. Every year there are teams that rise, fall or remain static. That is why I don't pay particular attention to the Packers strength of schedule - as I consider the injury list, timing of the bye-weeks and time-zone(s) travel - to be more relevant.
Starrbrite
May 19, 2025 at 03:10 pm
Yep—I remember that game.
LeotisHarris
May 19, 2025 at 03:11 pm
"Some people lost a pretty good chunk of money on that and decided to quit gambling on football."
LH, you might want to revisit that decision. There are many work-from-home jobs available where you can earn 3000$ or more each week from your workstation at you home to get more funds to use with the gambling. My friend told me about it and now I can't stop. I love the gambling and the extra money. It's easy! USA!
Leatherhead
May 19, 2025 at 05:30 pm
Sadly, I have reached that point in my life where I'm too busy to work for money. Taking care of the cars, the yard, the garden, the dogs, the cats, the Mother In Law all takes time. And of course, all the things I have to do to maintain my status as a Trophy Husband. It's not as easy as you'd think. There's time at the gym, getting a tan at the pool, etc.
My youngest son gambles on football. He called me one Monday shortly after he'd graduated and said he'd made $5500 over the weekend playing online blackjack, and he wanted to know if he was going to have to pay taxes on that. It was only a matter of time before he started betting on the NFL. He likes these combo bets where he bets that all 10 of these guys will score a TD that weekend, and stuff like that. Small bets on long odds. He knows the story about the Colts, but of course, he's a lot smarter than his old man so that won't happen to him.
Bitternotsour
May 19, 2025 at 07:15 pm
a person would be fool not to bet on football
GregC
May 19, 2025 at 12:53 pm
If the Lions and Vikings weren't so good last year, i.e. if the NFC North had been relatively weak, as it so often has been, the Packers would've been around 14-3 with a division championship and a home playoff game that they may have won--all of which would've masked their need to improve if they are going to contend for a championship. I prefer to be in a competitive division, even if it means fewer wins.
PackerBackerAZ
May 19, 2025 at 02:44 pm
I'd prefer a championship team dominating their division no matter how strong it is. A championship team makes the entire NFL look weak.
GregC
May 19, 2025 at 12:19 pm
I think maybe it's time for this site to start asking people if they are robots before allowing them to create new accounts. Something like that anyway.
Alberta_Packer
May 19, 2025 at 01:18 pm
There surely must be a cyber security equivalent to Rock'em Sock'em Robots.
LLCHESTY
May 19, 2025 at 07:09 pm
They need a flag function. It isn't a permanent fix but it would slow the spam traffic.
T7Steve
May 19, 2025 at 02:21 pm
Can't AI/robots just lie? Or do they have to tell the truth (as they are taught it)?
NFLfan
May 19, 2025 at 02:11 pm
I think knowing this game is being played @ home with a division rival will focus MLF.
LLCHESTY
May 19, 2025 at 06:13 pm
The ads seem to be growing exponentially and are on the verge of ruining the site. Past time to do something about it.
Leatherhead
May 19, 2025 at 06:51 pm
Yes. Especially since Al just doesn't seem to care and isn't trying at all, right?
I'm sure he'd welcome your suggestions.
LLCHESTY
May 19, 2025 at 07:07 pm
I'm on another Packer site and a Badger one and neither of those is having a problem.
Maybe you could show him how the math works!
Leatherhead
May 19, 2025 at 08:12 pm
Well, you could go to those other sites and we'd have one less problem here.
LLCHESTY
May 20, 2025 at 10:47 am
I could but then who would call you on your silliness?
TXCHEESE
May 20, 2025 at 08:33 am
Last year was the schedule with plenty of soft spots. For the most part GB took advantage of those, although a few sloppy wins, but did not take care of business inside the division. Thus a 3rd place finish and a road playoff game against a tough opponent.
This year, the focus and execution will have to be ramped up week-in and week-out. The Packers have a great opportunity to get a jump start on the season with the two home games to start the season. Win those and you've already established a playoff tie breaker advantage on those teams.