Packers Draft Special: RAS Short List
By Ross Uglem
Monday I linked Justis Mosqueda's threshold piece on the minimum numbers prospects usually have to hit to be considered being drafted by the Green Bay Packers. Justis did fantastic work, but I'm going to offer an even simpler "short list".
So why am I droning on about guys being on automatic #Packers watch? Just look at their last two draft classes. If you're looking for who they WILL pick instead of who you think they SHOULD pick, look at RAS scores. 21 picks, 14 RAS scores of 8.4 or better. pic.twitter.com/3VVkgHxQPX
— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) March 3, 2019
As I mention above, the Packers have made a specific point about adding elite athletes to the roster. Whether or not they're great at football (or being played in the right position by the staff) is another question. It's also a question that we won't know the answer to for a while. I think it's important to keep in mind that the Packers didn't struggle becuase Kevin King, Josh Jones and Josh Jackson are "bad'. We don't know if they're bad yet. It's because we waited the appropriate amount of time, and it turns out Datone Jones, Khyri Thornton, Eddie Lacy and Quinten Rollins weren't very good and Damarious Randall was played out of position. We can wear those failures now, because at this point, those players have reached their potential.
8.4 may seem like an arbitrary number, but it sure seems to be the magic number that Green Bay prefers to work off of. With that thought process in mind, here is the short(er) list of players to focus on wheen the Packers are on the board. There's a good bet 60% or more of the guys they end up taking will be from this list.
Wondering what RAS is?
Have a lot of new followers, so I'm going to do a quick #RAS explanation and walk those of you who've been here a while through the process. pic.twitter.com/RMq26cZOrr
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 3, 2019
RB
| Player | School | RAS |
| Alex Barnes | Kansas State | 9.74 |
| Miles Sanders | Penn State | 9.45 |
| Justice Hill | Oklahoma State | 9.31 |
| Dexter Williams | Notre Dame | 8.51 |
WR
| Player | School | RAS |
| Hakeem Butler | Iowa State | 9.92 |
| Miles Boykin | Notre Dame | 9.92 |
| Emanuel Hall | Mizzou | 9.91 |
| Parris Campbell | Ohio State | 9.76 |
| AJ Brown | Ole Miss | 9.7 |
| DK Metcalf | Ole Miss | 9.65 |
| Terry McLaurin | Ohio State | 9.64 |
| Darius Slayton | Auburn | 9.55 |
| N'Keal Harry | Arizona State | 9.44 |
| Gary Jennings | West Virginia | 9.41 |
| Jamal Custis | Syracuse | 9.21 |
| Ashton Dullin | Malone | 9.08 |
| Deebo Samuel | South Carolina | 8.91 |
| Stanley Morgan | Nebraska | 8.79 |
| Mecole Hardman | Georgia | 8.71 |
| Travis Fulgham | Old Dominion | 8.66 |
| Bisi Johnson | Colorado State | 8.55 |
| Cody Thompson | Toledo | 8.45 |
| Andy Isabella | Umass | 8.38 |
Isabella is included because he told me at the combine he'd met with Green Bay. Also his "low' RAS has more to do with size than athleticism.
TE
| Player | School | RAS |
| Noah Fant | Iowa | 9.89 |
| Foster Moreau | LSU | 9.62 |
| Kahale Warring | San Diego State | 9.37 |
| TJ Hockenson | Iowa | 9.14 |
| Josh Oliver | San Jose State | 8.86 |
| Drew Sample | Washington | 8.68 |
| Alize Mack | Notre Dame | 8.52 |
OL
| Player | School | RAS |
| Garrett Bradbury | NC State | 9.95 |
| Chris Lindstrom | Boston College | 9.82 |
| Andre Dillard | Washington State | 9.82 |
| Connor McGovern | Penn State | 9.68 |
| Kaleb McGary | Washington | 9.56 |
| Ryan Bates | Penn State | 9.49 |
| Yosuah Nijman | Virginia Tech | 9.47 |
| Iosua Opeta | Weber State | 9.17 |
| Hjalte Froholdt | Arkansas | 9.16 |
| Elgton Jenkins | Mississippi State | 9.16 |
| Phil Haynes | Wake Forest | 9.06 |
| Trey Pipkins | Sioux Falls | 9 |
| Deion Calhoun | Mississippi State | 8.89 |
| Max Scharping | NIU | 8.77 |
| Erik McCoy | Texas A&M | 8.55 |
EDGE
| Player | School | RAS |
| Maxx Crosby | EMU | 9.93 |
| Brian Burns | FSU | 9.89 |
| Montez Sweat | Mississippi State | 9.88 |
| Justin Hollins | Oregon | 9.86 |
| Josh Allen | Kentucky | 9.83 |
| John Cominsky | Charleston | 9.72 |
| Ben Banogu | TCU | 9.57 |
| Nick Bosa | Ohio State | 9.35 |
| Anthony Nelson | Iowa | 9.22 |
| Jordan Brailford | Oklahoma State | 8.92 |
| Chase Winovich | Michigan | 8.58 |
IDL
| Player | School | RAS |
| Rashan Gary | Michigan | 9.92 |
| Dexter Lawrence | Clemson | 9.83 |
| Jerry Tillery | Notre Dame | 9.74 |
| Renell Wren | Arizona State | 9.67 |
| Quinnen Williams | Alabama | 9.65 |
| Trysten Hill | UCF | 8.75 |
| Khalen Saunders | Western Illinois | 8.59 |
| Christian Wilkins | Clemson | 8.51 |
LB
| Player | School | RAS |
| Ty Summers | TCU | 9.9 |
| Drue Tranquill | Notre Dame | 9.87 |
| Blake Cashman | Minnesota | 9.55 |
| Porter Gustin | USC | 9.53 |
| Cody Barton | Utah | 9..34 |
| Devin White | LSU | 9.33 |
| Devin Bush | Michigan | 9.32 |
| Bobby Okereke | Stanford | 9.29 |
| Germaine Pratt | NC State | 9.27 |
| Jamal Davis | Akron | 9.23 |
| Sione Takitaki | BYU | 9.06 |
| Ben Burr-Kirven | Washington | 8.91 |
| Jordan Jones | Kentucky | 8.54 |
| Tyrel Dodson | Texas A&M | 8.4 |
CB
| Player | School | RAS |
| Isaiah Jhnson | Houston | 9.99 |
| Jamel Dean | Auburn | 9.94 |
| Sean Bunting | CMU | 9.8 |
| Ken Webster | Ole Miss | 9.78 |
| Kris Boyd | Texas | 9.68 |
| David Long | Michigan | 9.55 |
| Michael Jackson | Miami | 9.53 |
| Trayvon Mullen | Clemson | 9.49 |
| Corey Ballentine | Washburn | 9.49 |
| Amani Oruwariye | Penn State | 9.43 |
| Mark Fields | Clemson | 9.41 |
| Justin Layne | Michigan State | 9.26 |
| Derrek Thomas | Temple | 9.22 |
| Lonnie Johnson | Kentucky | 9.1 |
| Jordan Brown | South Dakota State | 8.85 |
| Iman Marshall | USC | 8.7 |
S
| Player | School | RAS |
| Juan Thornhill | Virginia | 10 |
| Marvell Tell III | USC | 9.91 |
| Will Harris | Boston College | 9.69 |
| Sheldrick Redwine | Miami | 9.57 |
| Saquan Hampton | Rutgers | 9.42 |
| Darnell Savage | Maryland | 9.21 |
| Amani Hooker | Iowa | 9 |
| Marquise Blair | Utah | 8.86 |
| Zedrick Woods | Ole Miss | 8.82 |
This is all of course to say that the Pakcers will almost certainly select players that are not on this list. With that said, it's a great place to start if you want to watch some clips on potential Packers players or start putting together some mocks. Here's your short list.
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Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem




Comments (51)
Bure9620
March 08, 2019 at 02:01 pm
Yup, Agree with everything here. The Packers value athleticism. Justis Mosqueda has been very accurate over the last few years. My mocks use the RAS score. Quite exclusively. (No, I doubt Hockensen is available this late). I really believe there are some players simply not on the Packers board due to low RAS.
Picks:
Round 1 Pick 12: Gary, Rashan, DE, Michigan (A)
Round 1 Pick 24 (OAK): Sweat, Montez, DE, Mississippi State (B+)
Round 2 Pick 14 (WASH): Dillard, Andre, OT/OT, Washington State (A-)
Round 3 Pick 12 (WASH): Hockenson, T.J., TE, Iowa (A+)
Round 4 Pick 12: Bradbury, Garrett, C, North Carolina State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 16: Mack, Alize, TE, Notre Dame (A+)
Round 5 Pick 12: Barnes, Alex, RB, Kansas State (A+)
Round 6 Pick 12: Hall, Emanuel, WR, Missouri (A+)
Round 6 Pick 21: Johnson, Isaiah, CB, Houston (A+)
Round 7 Pick 12: Russell, Dontavius, DT, Auburn (A+)
GBPDAN1
March 08, 2019 at 07:30 pm
Waddle goes to Rams on a reasonable deal..... bummer
dibibag7
March 08, 2019 at 10:59 pm
v
CO_Brandon
March 09, 2019 at 03:51 am
Honestly garbage. How do you think all those players are available at those picks. You don't even explain how we get pick 24.
Bure9620
March 09, 2019 at 08:31 am
It is a draft simulator, sorry I am spreading "garbage"
Bure9620
March 09, 2019 at 10:35 am
You will see we traded back with Oakland, that's how we got to 24
CO_Brandon
March 09, 2019 at 10:47 pm
We trade with Oakland and some how don't lose any picks
Handsback
March 08, 2019 at 02:02 pm
Well, it's a good starting point! Thanks for the effort Ross!
jimtalkbox
March 08, 2019 at 02:11 pm
Thank you! I was looking for something like this!
Turophile
March 08, 2019 at 06:28 pm
I'd throw out the numbers when it comes to Clelin Ferrell (Edge) and Ed Oliver (DL). If either is available at #12, I'd snap them up.
Also there is no DL Jeffery Simmons listed, because he tore his ACL, and I'd be a player for him at pick #30.
That is not to say I don't agree with you about the Packers and high RAS scores, the last few years have more than proved that.
Unless he goes much higher than most project at the moment Edge guy Maxx Crosby could be a high-priority target in say, the 5th round.
LB Ty Summers has an extraordinary score (9.9), but until I find out what his 3cone and short shuttle times are (not listed at the combine so i guess he dodged those drills), I couldn't really go all-in on him
Ross Uglem
March 08, 2019 at 02:28 pm
Ed Oliver will qualify once he actually has enough publicly known testing numbers to qualify. Of that I am almost certain. I will be extremely surprised if Ferrell is not available at 12.
Dzehren
March 08, 2019 at 05:58 pm
12. Ferrell DE
30 Lindstrom OL
44. Irv Smith TE
76 Juan Thornhill Safety
Turophile
March 08, 2019 at 06:14 pm
Solid choices, Dzehren
PeteK
March 09, 2019 at 10:09 am
I would be very happy with that draft ! I would be ecstatic with Ferrell, Hockenson, Risner( can play G and T) Thornhill or Savage because they both have coverage ability, Miles Sanders RB, Winovich(at the least could be a good special team player). Gipson was just released, his numbers look good but I don't know too much about him as far as coverage skills.
Roadrunner23
March 08, 2019 at 02:55 pm
Thanks Ross
Yes Gutey does seem to follow RAS in his Draft Choices and UDFA pickups, he is trying to inject more athleticism into this roster not only for 2019 but beyond.
I like what he did last year and lets hope he hits it BIG in this years draft which could pole vault the team forward quickly if a few tasty Free Agents are mixed in.
This is a talented and deep draft which looks to not drop off dramatically until about the 5th round. The Packers have 6 choices before the 5th round which should provide a major influx of quality talent.
Very Exciting indeed!
Go Pack!
that is all.....
Turophile
March 08, 2019 at 06:13 pm
I'd say the real dropoff was almost always the third round (early on in the third in the bad years, late in good years). However, since it all depends on something so subjective, your take (5th round) is just as valid as mine.
I guess if you want to be more accurate, I'd say that after round three you could still find decent value picks at TE and especially at WR and RB. You might also find decent developmental pass rushers after round three this year (which is very unusual)..........................so after disagreeing with you, i'm sort of agreeing with you - my head hurts.
I do agree it is a pretty exciting year with all the changes, plenty of draft ammo and a very interesting bunch of candidates that might be Packers.
ricky
March 08, 2019 at 02:57 pm
Physical attributes are great. What is greater is desire to be great, football instincts and smarts, and the willingness to learn. And then, as also mentioned, the player must be used correctly. So, will MLF or Pettine be stubborn, or will they adjust to the abilities of the player, and make them fit into the system. Please, no square pegs for round holes.
Turophile
March 08, 2019 at 06:17 pm
..............and if you have a square peg, you design a square hole (scheme) for that peg.
Leatherhead
March 08, 2019 at 02:59 pm
I think you try to identify guys you'd like to add to the team and then try to move around in the draft to get the guys you want. Try to get as many picks in the Top 110 or so as you can.
These RAS scores on some of the non-first round TEs are interesting. It is a matter of record that you're more likely to get a really good TE on the second day than the first.
cpitt
March 08, 2019 at 03:34 pm
Will people please stop with the Rashan Gary noise. The guy is an A+ athlete who cant really play. Dude should be a low second round pick at best. Look at his production, its terrible. Id much rather have Winovich than Gary.
Bure9620
March 08, 2019 at 04:04 pm
I'm not sure what you mean "he can't really play." Watch his film, his first step is terrific and he was nearly unblockable at the college level when singled up. His lateral movement is insane. Watch the game against Wisconsin, Gary caused so much disruption in the middle there was essentially no pocket to step up into. Rashan Gary CAN play.
stockholder
March 08, 2019 at 04:25 pm
Gary gets hung up on Blocks. Needs more rushing moves. Much better for a 4-3-4 defense. Bush was the best player on Michigans defense.
Ross Uglem
March 08, 2019 at 04:19 pm
what exactly did I say about Rashan Gary that so offended you?
cpitt
March 08, 2019 at 05:49 pm
Nothing at all. I just people in the comments everywhere parroting that Rashan Gary would be a great pick. He'd be a terrible reach IMO.
Turophile
March 08, 2019 at 06:23 pm
He is certainly a polarising player and I have seen him anywhere from 5th overall to mid-round two.
I don't much like (relatively) unproved athletes myself, (I want high production in round one), but exceptional athletes always get taken pretty high - so while I don't endorse it, i do understand it.
Lare
March 08, 2019 at 04:14 pm
I'm really no expert on RAS, but if you're going off of pure athleticism isn't there the chance to get guys like Spriggs, Jones, Moore and Burks- athletes that test well but don't take that ability to the football field?
Bure9620
March 08, 2019 at 04:17 pm
Might be a bit early to Judge Burks and Moore, only had a rookie season
Ross Uglem
March 08, 2019 at 04:20 pm
1. Yes of course there is, though plenty of bad athletes don't pan out. Look at Laquon Treadwell or Eddie Lacy.
2. Not very smart to dismiss Moore or Burks after one season.
JonathanSpader
March 08, 2019 at 06:01 pm
What's interesting is Moore has a lower RAS than MVS or ESB and was taken before them. Burks was injured in 2018 hopefully he can be our cover LB in 2019. Antonio Morrison was just released so they must be counting on Burks and maybe Josh Jones.
dobber
March 08, 2019 at 06:22 pm
I just saw that on Morrison as well. I'm a little surprised, myself. I thought they'd at least carry him into camp. Apparently they wanted his $2M cap money...
profootballrumors.com/2019/03/packers-waive-lb-antonio-morrison
lowcsp
March 08, 2019 at 07:28 pm
or devin white
Thegreatreynoldo
March 09, 2019 at 03:07 pm
Yeah, Dobber, same thing I've written: not going to pay Morrison $2.045M to be a one down LB. GB had to pay him the $2 mill unless they released him. No one will put in a waiver claim because that team would have to pay Morrison $2M.
After he clears waivers, teams can sign him for his market value, which might be between $720K and $1M at a guess.
HankScorpio
March 10, 2019 at 05:59 am
I hope nobody is going off athleticism alone. Looking at just one thing on potential draft choices is silly, no matter what that thing is. That includes video. A guy with eye-popping video that has some kind of medical or character issue can easily turn into a poor choice.
Using hard measurements to determine whether lack of athleticism will be a contributing factor to a potential draft pick going bad is good due diligence, IMO. It's not much different that an corporate HR dept only looking at job candidates with a college degree.
Bear
March 08, 2019 at 04:44 pm
Last year there were 171 players above the 8.4 mark. If every team took a player 8.4 or above you wouldn’t draft lower until the 6th round. Sorry not a fan of RAS.
Ross Uglem
March 08, 2019 at 04:55 pm
boy is that not how that works.
PatrickGB
March 08, 2019 at 05:29 pm
I hear a lot of talk from our coaches and staff about “Good Football Players”. I wonder how that fits into RAS? I also know that the competition that they play against matters game in and game out. And what about motivation? Also, what about the coaching and scheme?I think that there are too many variables to actually have any “scientific” method that works well all the time.
But I sure love and appreciate the effort that’s put into these articles at CheeseheadTV.
fthisJack
March 09, 2019 at 07:47 am
RAS is just one metric. add in production, motor, and character and you develop your board.
stockholder
March 08, 2019 at 05:35 pm
Based on this I would take @12 Sweat. @30 and @75 To trade up for Burns. @44 Bradbury
buddrow53
March 08, 2019 at 06:19 pm
finally someone gave some props to Drue Tranquill. He came my neck of the woods 20mi.
Tried many many times to get signed by Notre Dame. They would not sign him, finally after a open try out Coach Kelly took less than a hour and told his people to sign that kid.
2 time Captain at ND engineering degree, public service awards a Brainiac along with Blake, 2 of the smartest players in the NFL.
Late 4th round or 5th would be a good grab.
Leatherhead
March 08, 2019 at 06:26 pm
Trade #12 for #21 and #50..
Trade #30 for #37 and
We now have picks at #21 #37, #44, #50 and #76 .
Who is projected to be available at #21? Well, that depends on who is doing the projecting but I'm seeing names like Wilkins and Hochensen and Bush....every one of these guys would instantly be an upgrade.
I think we should trade down and get more guys.
Dzehren
March 08, 2019 at 07:34 pm
GB already has 10 picks. Pick #12 is gold this year.
A trade up from pick 44 or 76 is more likely.
CalPacker
March 08, 2019 at 08:02 pm
Absolutely. There are impact players in Rds 2-4 that can help us. Just watching tape on guys like Henderson, Hill, Savage and Barton last night, I'm more convinced than ever that we can have quantity AND quality by drafting down...
CalPacker
March 08, 2019 at 08:16 pm
Trysten Hill, that is...
fthisJack
March 09, 2019 at 07:56 am
i also like the trade down idea unless someone unbelievable slides. move back 6 -8 spots and still get a great football player. probably someone that could have been your pick at 12 and add another 2nd or 3rd. then later if you see a guy in range that you have to have, jump up and grab him.
ShooterMcGee
March 08, 2019 at 08:00 pm
What I don't get is how so many p!ayers score in the 90th percentile. Shouldnt only 10% score so high? What pool of players are we talking about? All players at this years combine or all players ever tested?
Ross Uglem
March 08, 2019 at 10:10 pm
It’s data that goes back to 1987. Players are continually getting bigger faster stronger. It does make sense in the scheme of the last 32 years.
Frolio
March 08, 2019 at 08:22 pm
Ross would probably like a draft that turned out how mine did last night on Fanspeak using Matt Miller's big board.
12 Brian Burns, Edge, FSU
30 Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
44 Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida
75 Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State
114 Ben Powers, G, Oklahoma
118 Andy Isabella, WR, UMass
150 Khalen Saunders, DL, Western Illinois
185 Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington
194 Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M
226 Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
Six of them are listed in this article, CGJ seems to be one of the most versatile safeties in the draft, Powers is decent value at that spot, I think Sternberger was First Team All American, and Love was considered a Heisman candidate until injuries derailed his last season.
Turophile
March 09, 2019 at 04:18 am
I'd rather go OT at #30................but a tremendous selection of talent.
In reality, I'd expect your last five picks to go a round or more earlier, but I'd go for it, if that was how it panned out.
stockholder
March 09, 2019 at 07:25 am
No OT at #30. Guard! The Rt will be just as good in the 3rd-4th. The top guards must be taken in the second. They will have to take a RT for the RG position. Thats in 4th rds. I'll take a TE before OL@30. Bet this pick gets traded.
jww061356
March 09, 2019 at 08:54 am
Wow. That would be a scary good draft.
Doug Niemczynski
March 09, 2019 at 08:44 am
Everyone is picking draft picks A to Z for #12 spot.
Changing your mind like the wind that blows in every direction not knowing which way its coming from.
I'm going to pick the #12 very clean, plain and simple, so everyone can be happy for the next 10 year's.
TE Iowa - T.J. Hockenson
And, you can take that to the bank! Home boys.