Packers Periscope: Week 14 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Up Periscope against the Packers week 14 opponent: the Dallas Cowboys.  Will the Packers finally get out of their slump or will they need to rely on luck again?  Will they need either against a destitute Cowboys team?  

The Past

Who could forget the last time the Packers and Cowboys played for a shot at the NFC title game?  Of course last year now seems so long ago as both franchises have fallen this year, mostly due to quarterback injury, while Tony Romo’s broken collarbone is a lot more obvious, Aaron Rodgers likely has been nursing his own shoulder injury as well.  In a close fought divisional game, the Packers just managed to squeak by the Cowboys 26-21, with the lucky help of the “Calvin Johnson” rule, where wide receiver Dez Bryant made the catch that probably should have been a catch that was ruled correctly as a non-catch. 

The Present

Overall Team Efficiency

Packers

Cowboys

10.7%

-15.3%

Offense

Overall

8.2%

-13.7%

Run

-12.9%

-5.7%

Pass

31.5%

-8.7%

Defense

Overall

-2.8%

2.9%

Run

-11.9%

-5.8%

Pass

4.3%

-10.4%

Special Teams

-0.3%

1.3%

Quarterback (DYAR)

657

43

 

(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR.  And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)  

If I had to guess, I would bet that the Cowboys 2015 DVOA numbers look surprisingly similar to the Packers 2013 season when Aaron Rodgers missed the majority of the season with a broken collarbone.  Just about nothing has been working on offense, the Cowboys rank 30th overall and are 28th in passing efficiency and 18th in running efficiency.  Ironically, the Cowboys were assumed to be a “run to set up the pass” type of offense with heavy investments in the offensive line, which produced the leading rusher of the 2014 season.  While losing DeMarco Murray certainly didn’t help things, the wheels really only fell off after losing Tony Romo, again solidifying the idea that the quarterback is the most important player on the field, no matter what scheme you play. 

On defense, the Cowboys stylistically also resemble the 2013 Packers; while they are not considered the backbone of the defense, with the offense sinking the defense has stepped up, albeit neither defense was able to win any games, they only simply held the ship afloat until the hero arrives.  Unfortunately for the Cowboys, no hero is riding in as Romo reinjured his collarbone and is out for the season.

The biggest matchup will likely be the Packers passing defense against the Matt Cassel and Dez Bryant.  While Bryant may be one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, the “shiny hood ornament” theory still applies; it’s debatable if Jerry Rice could do anything with Cassel under center.  

The Future

Continuing with the parallels between the Packers and Cowboys and their quarterbacks with broken collarbones, how the Cowboys look at next season will likely follow what the Packers did, which is basically nothing.  While Romo is considerably older and now has broken his collarbone 3 times, he’s still one of the top quarterbacks in the league when healthy and will likely have several more productive years. 

The second favorable point is that the Cowboys could conceivably win the division at 4-8 since the rest of the NFC East is in a 3-way tie at 5-7.  If the Cowboys do managed to win the division and make the playoffs, ownership and the fan base will be much less inclined to start calling for heads.  Keep in mind a similar thing happened in 2013 when the Packers essentially didn’t lose the NFC North because no other team apparently wanted to win and the Packers remained largely the same, even not picking up a new quarterback prospect until this year when they selected Brett Hundley in the 5th round (you might eve argue they still haven’t addressed this issue).  

Perhaps more important is what exactly to do with the running game, which has become the focal point of the Cowboys offense.  Given the choice of retain Dez Bryant or DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys wisely choose Bryant but were left with a bare cupboard as Joseph Randle was demoted and then released (and then arrested), leaving Darren McFadden and two guys released from Seattle (not including Christine Michael) Whether the lack of a star running back has lead to a decline in the offensive line or the reverse, a solid running back is likely top priority this year.    

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Comments (33)

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Big Moe's picture

December 11, 2015 at 12:33 pm

It's simple If we see beast mode from Eddie, we crush them, but I've yet to see it, the D has improved, but without the consistent run game Aaron is getting slobberknockered far to often, and with a banged up O-line, well lets just hope we don't need to repeat last week. All Pack All Day 27-7 on the hopes we see the Beast mode and not the Least mode.

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Dan Stodola's picture

December 11, 2015 at 06:41 pm

Beast mode is taken and either way its not a good description of how Lacy runs. Far too often he stops, misses cuts and hesitates. I like the guy, but he doesnt even run as powerfully as Ahman Green. Ahman at least alway accelerated into contact. Lacy doesn't do that. Mostly he slows down reducing much of his power and then just tries to stay on his feet and push forward.

But yes, Lacy does need to get back to his normal running style for the Packers to make a run.

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4thand1's picture

December 11, 2015 at 08:22 pm

Like the queens and barelys games?

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Dan Stodola's picture

December 11, 2015 at 10:15 pm

Yeah, he needs to get back to that Lacy. But like I said, he doesn't run w/ as much Power as Ahman did. Lacy just doesn't accelerate into tacklers in the way Ahman did.

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porupack's picture

December 11, 2015 at 10:31 pm

Very much agree with your assessment DStodola. Was watching Minn v Ari, and how much APeterson changes up. Sometimes he straightlines into the hole, sometimes hesitates, sometimes bounces out. Lot of variation. I seldom see Lacy accelerate straight into a seam. It wouldn't be so problematic if a scatback lined up with Lacy in the backfield and therein get the variation that way.

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Zebra 3's picture

December 11, 2015 at 01:14 pm

A lot depends on the O line. If they execute and block adequately the Packers should be able to run enough to set up some play action. Of coarse the WR's need to
run good routes and hold the drops to a minimum.

The defense is playing well enough to hold a Romo-less team under 20 points. Good to see Ryan has earned a spot at ILB.

Prediction GB 27- 16

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Tundraboy's picture

December 11, 2015 at 01:52 pm

Oline has been our biggest problem. It will be the key on Sunday. Must protect Aaron, must pave way for run game. Everything other than all the drops has been a result of the drop off of the Oline this year. Combined with all the bad throws and dropped passes it is no wonder offense had been off. Haven't a clue on score.

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Mojo's picture

December 11, 2015 at 02:45 pm

One thing that bugs me about last years GB - Dallas playoff game is how so many people have insisted the Bryant non-catch ruling cost them the game.

That might have been the case if 1.) the Cowboys finished the drive with a TD from the one yard-line. I'll concede they most likely would have scored which brings us to 2.) the Cowboys stopped GB from scoring for the rest of the game. There was over 4:40 left when the call was made. Even if Dallas would have wound the clock down a bit there would have been 2 to 4 minutes for GB to mount a drive. Remember this was the 2014 version that had one of the leagues best offenses.

Also, considering the score at the time, Dallas certainly would have gone for two. If they make it a GB field goal ties and sends into OT. If they miss a GB field goal wins it. The Pack didn't need to get to the endzone in either case.

But the biggest aspect of this part of the game was how GB was able to run the clock after the Dez call was made. They ran seven plays to the Dallas 23 before three kneel-downs when Dallas HAD to stop them to win the game. So with the game on the line, GB was able to get into field goal range with a definite shot at a TD first if a FG meant a tie .

GB deserved to win the game regardless of the Bryant call.

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Tundraboy's picture

December 11, 2015 at 04:38 pm

Thanks. Glad that you said it. We had no trouble moving ball or scoring and would have still won. Wish it did play out like that in a way because even if we win Sunday, Cowboys will be whining about it for years to come.

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Dan Stodola's picture

December 11, 2015 at 06:51 pm

"so many people have insisted the Bryant non-catch ruling cost them the game."

Cowpie fans maybe. Any rational fan and certainly all real Packer fans know the Packers would probably have still won. The scenarios you mention would have given Rodgers and the offense every opportunity to score again.

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NickPerry's picture

December 12, 2015 at 06:31 am

Excellent points Mojo...Ones that I've brought up on NFL.Com when the Dallas fans insist they should have won the game. When Rodgers took a knee on 1st down at the Dallas 23, there was still 1:53 left in the game! Dallas didn't deserve to win that game, not even a little. Thing is the "Bryant Play" still ISN"T a catch. When we beat them at Lambeau on Sunday I hope we hang at least 35 on them, at least they can't say it was Romo. Last I checked Romo doesn't play defense.

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Razer's picture

December 11, 2015 at 02:59 pm

After watching so many lesser teams take it to the Packers these last weeks, I won't take anything for granted. Who knows what O-Line will show up or if the receivers will finally figure out the coverages. It troubles me that we are at week 13 and we are playing such inconsistent, mistake ridden ball. Rodgers and Lacy need to take command of their respective positions and pull the rest of the team along.

I am hopeful that this is our turn-around game.

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

December 11, 2015 at 04:11 pm

It Amazes me how the average fan thinks. Based on what I read, if I didn't know better, I'd say GB was 4 games out of the division lead. They couldn't be in a better position then what they are now. They need to get Healthy. In the scheme of things, how important is this game. Would you rather win this game, & lose the next3? Forget the Chicago game, the weather killed us. Crosby lost the Detroit game. We beat a Good Detroit team even if it was a fluke. We lost at Denver, like a lot of teams do. Worry about Carolina & Minnesota. Those are the 2 teams we want to avoid in the playoffs. Neither team has gotten respect all year, & any time GB & Minnesota play, anything can happen. Win or lose Sunday, it's not that important yet. It's important for this team to get Healthy for the playoffs, whether it's at Lambeau or on the road. The game is holding at GB-7. Normally that would be a winning line against Dallas. As stated before, MM knows what's Best for this team. He's looking down the road, like a lot of you should be doing. For what it's worth, Don't think according to Hoyle. GB is right where you want them to be.LVT

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Dan Stodola's picture

December 11, 2015 at 06:57 pm

Minn doesn't scare me in the least. Stop AP and make Teddy win and that team will fold every day. Carolina is a very good team, no doubt. You don't get to 12-0 being anything less, but they can be beat and even the Packers had a real chance to win on the road. No problem going to Carolina in the playoffs if need be. I actually think AZ is a much more difficult game than Carolina would be.

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4thand1's picture

December 11, 2015 at 08:26 pm

The Packers can get pressure on AZ. The Cardinals seem to live or die by the biltz. Health will be the determining factor for GB.

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D Ernesto's picture

December 11, 2015 at 04:43 pm

simple with this team you never know who shows up

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ray nichkee's picture

December 11, 2015 at 06:34 pm

Thanks for the insight cowpie. Now go back to naked swordfighting in your moms basement with your new troll.

I can't imagine your excuses will be Monday morning. Hopefully you just go away as usual.

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Dr.Rodgers's picture

December 11, 2015 at 06:41 pm

Thanks for the cute comment! Go Pack Go!

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lebowski's picture

December 11, 2015 at 07:06 pm

Sorry man, I'd give GB passing D vs DAL passing O and 'advantage GB'. Not necessarily if Romo were playing, but right now, with Randall and Shields, HaHa and Burnett, Rollins playing well, and getting a pass rush occasionally, and Cassel playing QB,I think we're actually okay there. Please don't always dismiss everything Packer related because you're frustrated with the team.

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Dan Stodola's picture

December 11, 2015 at 07:44 pm

Apparently you haven't been around much. Thats all cowpie does is dismiss and criticize everything Packers!

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4thand1's picture

December 11, 2015 at 09:00 pm

Last week he said the lolions would win by 17. I don't know why I'm even wasting my time responding to this bullshit. Pack will win 10 games maybe 11. His queens lost again so try to piss off the real fans of America's true team.
GOPACKGO!
COWSUCKS.

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TommyG's picture

December 11, 2015 at 06:54 pm

I read that the weather is supposed to be rain for the entire game. Our last wet game against the Bears... Well, thank goodness halftime was epic. Expect a low scoring game as neither passing game is going to look very good. 18-16 Packers in what is an insanely ugly game.

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Lphill's picture

December 11, 2015 at 08:50 pm

You can't tell me COW is not a Vikings fan , tough loss last night COW sorry for your loss, if your trying to say Cassel and Rodgers are equal then you are a true hater , really to suggest Cassel will out play Rodgers please stop it.

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4thand1's picture

December 11, 2015 at 09:07 pm

Stop, no f-ing way. He wacks off to every negative post. He can't stand the fact that the rest of the NFCN is looking up at GB again this year. Teddy B will never make a good NFL QB. The child beater fumbles away games. They have the worst left tackle in football, a high 1st round pick. So he bashes the best QB in football today, the great Aaron Rodgers.

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MarkinMadison's picture

December 11, 2015 at 10:50 pm

That's such a ridiculously irrelevant stat, why bother? It's not like they are both playing against the same defense, and both are throwing to the same receivers...

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4thand1's picture

December 11, 2015 at 11:01 pm

Your opinion means absolutely shit. You've been bashing Rodgers and the Packers since you've been on this site. All the perennial losers in the NFL would kill for the Packers success. The epidemic of injuries have slowed the Packers but not buried them like you always do. Which solidifies your trolldom. We all know your fruitless game and it's laughable. There is no way in holy hell that you're a Packer fan. With your shitty outlook on life in general I'm betting you're typing with your head in a gas oven.
you suck.

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Lphill's picture

December 11, 2015 at 09:34 pm

FYI Giants will win the east I think they upset the Panthers and they play Cows Vikings , that's a win , no way the Cowboys win the division or make the playoffs .

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4thand1's picture

December 11, 2015 at 09:38 pm

The Giants have the 31st ranked defense. Eli throws to many picks. The div winner may be 7-9.

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porupack's picture

December 11, 2015 at 11:00 pm

When I first saw the season schedule come out, I circled this December game in Green Bay, imagining Dez wincing and whining in the cold and thinking advantage GreenBay. But rain all day at 57? Ugh. Sounds like Dallas winter. I think Rogers handles wet weather better than most QBs, and if the other Rogers is used as hot receiver option...I'll trust those hands.
If I was MM, I'd have Hundley throw wet balls to Lacy all day on Saturday; like 500 or so. He might need to get the feel, ya know, just in case? One of those prep things b/c we wouldn't want to see a critical 3rd down foregone by a dropped pass to Lacy coming out of backfield.
Dallas D seems to be decent, but then again their opponents weren't much...so hard to tell. I wouldn't take them for granted though, Sean Lee has great instincts and sets tone for that unit IMO.
Packers win though I can't back it up by much game-quality evidence from GB in previous games. I'll trust GB wins the turnover margin.
O-line; please do me a favor.....make Hardy irrelevant, but yeah, drive some extra into him, will ya please?

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Tundraboy's picture

December 11, 2015 at 11:50 pm

I'm with you. Please take care of Dallas this week!

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NickPerry's picture

December 12, 2015 at 10:03 pm

Hope You're right but he sure didn't handle the raun well against Chicago on Thanksgiving, then again neither did any of the Packers offensive players.

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MadJam's picture

December 12, 2015 at 08:52 am

If the O-line plays well, the Packers have a good chance to put this game in the win column. Takeaways will make a difference. If the offense gets it together, the can control the clock with a good run game. But I haven't seen any sign that play calling and execution have improved to the point where Rodgers can attack downfield with 20+ yard passes. The personnel haven't been able to get that going consistently. I think the Pack will win by at least 10 points. Something like 24-13.

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Allan Murphy's picture

December 12, 2015 at 11:01 am

Stats mean nothing . Just win is all that matters ...............

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