Pay that man!!! Or... Pay that man???

What's a premium rusher worth to Green Bay in the current market? History might have the answer.

 

Just this past week the NFL deadline for long terms deals expired; leaving 3 of the NFL's top running backs without deals, and left to play under the franchise tag. The Giants' Saquon Barkley, the Raiders' Josh Jacobs, and the Cowboys' Tony Pollard. Dalvin Cook, formerly of the Vikings is also looking for a new team after being released in a cost savings move, and while it's unclear if compensation is the sole reason why he remains unsigned, it's probably a significant factor. Regardless, the running back market(or lack thereof) has been a touchy subject for the last couple of seasons, as the position's most elite players struggle to secure lucrative long-term deals from their respective clubs. 

While the NFL has transformed into a pass-happy space game, the value of the run game can't be ignored, as half of the last 10 Super Bowl-winning teams ranked in the Top 10 of the league for rushing. So if a solid run game can still get you to the promised land, why doesn't the NFL appreciate its premier running backs? Some might argue that the position has a short shelf life, but the RB position also translates the fastest in the NFL from college: see the hole open, hit the hole fast. Outside of somewhat more complex pass-blocking schemes than normally seen in the NCAA, a running back's talent for the pro game normally reveals itself sooner than later. Not to mention, the most talented running backs can help you in the passing game too, which takes the pressure off your quarterback, and also forces the defense to account for them further, which aids wide receivers when trying to break free downfield in coverage.

The Packers, while normally heralded for their elite passers throughout history: Starr, Favre, Rodgers, Love(just go with it), have certainly found themselves at a crossroads when it came to paying their #1 guy in the backfield. Would Green Bay, a place where the frozen tundra might give way to a run-first approach as the regular season gets into its final act serve as a RB-friendly environment? Nope! As a matter of fact, history might say "he-- no" to the idea of Green Bay ever rewarding a top-flight RB with a big-time contract.

Examine the evidence below:

 

1. Ahman Green

The franchise rushing leader who was so good for so long made a decent amount of scratch over his time with the Packers, but never secured a hefty payday from the folks at 1265. I honestly consider Green to be General Manager Ron Wolf's last great addition to the Packers. Traded to the team from Seattle in 2000, Green was in the final year of his rookie contract as a 3rd Round Pick back in 1998. He immediately set to work and reminded the world why Nebraska won two National Championships while he was in Lincoln, accumulating over 1,700 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns. Maybe Wolf thought it was a fluke, or was hesitant to give a big deal to what appeared to be at this time an ascending player, signing Green to a 5-year, 18.3M deal; which placed him right at #11 with an average yearly salary of $3.6M. It wasn't a terrible deal at all, but what stuck out to me was the fact that the players who made more, were all on average 3-6 years older than Green who was only 24 with only LaDainian Tomlinson being younger at 22. Marshall Faulk, Jamal Anderson, Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Terrell Davis, Corey Dillon, and Tiki Barber, were all making roughly a million or more per season. In hindsight, I'd say Wolf pulled a "Slicky Boy" on Green and his agent back then.

With his new deal in place, Green gained more yards from scrimmage than any other player in the NFL through 2004. It's a wonder what he would have accomplished had he not had a thigh tear in the final year of his contract in 2005, ending his season. When 2006 rolled around, General Manager Ted Thompson was in town, and after having just gotten the Packers under the salary cap after inheriting a team that was over it, rewarding his injured top RB was not on the menu. Ahman Green was served a meager "team-friendly" deal of $2.35M for 1 year; plummeting him to the #23 highest-paid RB in the league. His elder colleagues Faulk, Martin, Dillon, and Barber were still playing and still were making more than an RB who surely had more left in the tank. Green started to find some of his old self again, compiling 1,400 yards from scrimmage and 6 touchdowns in his age-29 season(remember this number).

But at 29, and not the Pro Bowl form that Green Bay fans and opponents had come to know, Thompson was not about to pay the veteran for his continued services. The Texans didn't mind though, signing Green to the largest contract in his career: a 4-year, $23M deal with an average salary of $5.75M. Green only saw a little less than half of that money though, as injuries and off-the-field problems crippled his success. Green returned to the Packers for 2009 in a reserve role after injuries depleted the RB room, inking back up to a paltry $845k. He would retire a Packer at the end of the season, with over 11,000 yards from scrimmage and 68 touchdowns.

 

2. Ryan Grant

After the departure of Ahman Green, the Packers' RB room was a mess. You'll remember names like Samkon Gado, Noah Herron, and Brandon Jackson, but nobody could seem to establish themselves as the feature back. Enter Ryan Grant, who Ted Thompson plucked off the Giants roster for a lowly future 6th Round Pick. With no real NFL game experience Grant was compensated with a very humble 1-year, $315k deal. Grant immediately proved he was the best back in the group, rushing for 956 yards and 8 touchdowns despite only starting in 7 games. He would earn his big reward from Thompson in 2007, when he re-signed for 4 years and $20M, averaging $5M per season. Green, who had just departed a year ago, was only making $750k more a season down in Houston. Grant would go on to compile just over 2,450 rushing yards in 2008 and 2009 combined before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 1 of the Packers' 2010 Championship year.

After returning to the team healthy in his age-29 season(sound familiar?), Grant was forced into a timeshare with 2nd-year wonder James Starks. Grant didn't do too bad honestly, racking up 827 yards from scrimmage while sharing the load. But after the conclusion of the utter failure of the Packers' 2011 campaign where they finished the regular season 15-1 only to be ousted by the Giants in the Divisional Round at home, Green Bay seemingly wasn't interested. Grant eventually found himself in Washington for a small fee of $750k. But once again injuries mounted for the Packers (sound familiar?) and Grant would get claimed by Green Bay after being released from the Redskins to add depth. Grant would retire from football at the end of the season.

 

3. Aaron Jones

Ah, here we are. The current leading back and #3 all-time in franchise history for rushing yards and #4 all-time in franchise history for rushing touchdowns (he could easily become #2 this year). Aaron Jones should easily be considered the late Ted Thompson's last great addition to the Packers(sound familiar?). Thompson, using what I call his famed "three swings at bat" approach, took Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Davante Mays to solve the dilemma the Packers were in after Eddie Lacy's fall from grace and what would soon be the abrupt departure of Ty Montgomery. Being a 5th Round Pick, Jones had a mostly standard 4-year, $2.6M deal. But he went out and got after it, posting over 1,550 yards from scrimmage with 19 touchdowns in 2019 and over 1,450 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns during the 2020 season. Jones got paid, tying with Joe Mixon at 7th in the league for RB salaries at $12M a year. It was honestly a marvel at the time that GM Brian Gutekunst, a disciple of Ted Thompson who surely revered Ron Wolf as well, would have the capacity to do such a thing given the Packers' history.

Jones had a decent time in 2021, getting over the 1,150 scrimmage yards hump with 10 touchdowns despite some nagging injuries and some very questionable game management by the coaching staff. 2022 saw him get back to his old ways with over 1,500 scrimmage yards and 7 touchdowns. While it didn't necessarily take away from his money additionally, the Packers elected to convert some of his roster bonus and base salary to a signing bonus to free up some room space under the salary cap. But in 2023, Packers' front office once again reared its ugly, shrewd heads again, with Jones being asked to take a $5M pay cut to remain with the team. 

The 2023 season is nearly upon us, and now, it's Aaron Jones' age-29(gasp!) season. While Jones remains in the Top-5 for total cash at the RB position in 2023 and doesn't become an unrestricted free agent until 2025, it's a wonder what both sides might be thinking in order to stay together, or perhaps imagine what the future looks like apart. 

With the money Jones is earning now, I doubt he eclipses it at the age of 31; and given the pay cut he's already had to endure it's eerily similar to what the Packers "got away with" in regards to Ahman Green early on in his career. With roughly only 3,000 yards to go, one should hope Green Bay allows Jones to stick around and have a crack at Green's record, if not allow him to prove he's worth the roster spot in general. A.J. Dillon might be waiting in the wings, but he's not necessarily a major threat to Jones either. It'll be interesting to see the kinds of moves the Packers make in regard to the RB room as time moves on.

 

 

Some may agree, some may disagree, but I do believe how the RB position is compensated is an issue. Whether the NFL adjusts the compensation model in regard to the franchise/transition tag, or a player/agent comes up with contract language that sets a new precedent for both players and teams, it deserves an amicable solution. You can't win, or at least win often if all 22 players don't execute as a team and at a high level. Most star running backs account for anywhere between 20% and 30% of their respective team's total offense. So shouldn't teams pay them accordingly? While I certainly respect the Packers' approach given the benefit of hindsight, I do think they could do just a little better.

Feel free to let us know how you feel in the comments.

 

 

EDIT - RB Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers is holding a Zoom Conference Saturday evening with the "big name RBs" of the league to discuss the current RB market with NFLPA Representatives on the call as well. Earlier this offseason Ekeler tried to negotiate a better deal with the Chargers before being permitted to seek a trade. However, the Chargers dictated that they wanted premium picks for Ekeler, despite his contract demonstrating otherwise his value for the team.

 

#GPG

 

 

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Joseph has been an avid fan of the Green Bay Packers since 1997, citing an affinity for dairy products during his childhood and his favorite color, green. Born in Jacksonville, FL, Joseph currently is an Active Duty servicemember in the U.S. Armed Forces. Joseph considers himself a lifelong fan of the game of football, competing since his youth well into adulthood. When it comes to the Pack, Joseph is particularly impassioned about the NFL Draft and collegiate scouting process, and will contribute regularly on CHTV.com leading to that year's upcoming Draft. You can follow him on Twitter at @joeyreyallday.

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Comments (20)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Rarescope's picture

July 20, 2023 at 04:16 pm

Love the level of detail in this article and humorous asides Joseph. I was so excited when Jones got resigned because he was so explosive in 2020, I couldn’t imagine our offense without him. After 2022… not saying anything is Jones’ fault but I’m curious to see what the offense looks like this year before jumping to any conclusions on any offensive players outside of the offensive line.

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GregC's picture

July 20, 2023 at 04:27 pm

I feel bad for running backs. They take the most punishment and have the shortest careers of any position. But the market doesn't lie. There just isn't enough difference in production between the top RBs and the average ones to justify paying huge money to the best ones.

I'm not persuaded by the fact that five of the past ten Super Bowl teams had top ten rushing attacks. That's not an overwhelming number by any means, especially considering that winning teams tend to play with a lead more, so they don't have to pass as much as most other teams. Also, I wonder how many of those top ten rushing teams have RBs with special talent. I bet some of those teams are getting it done with average RBs and really good offensive lines.

The injuries and short careers also have a lot to do with the relatively modest contracts for good RBs. They could suffer a big injury at any time, and they may never be the same after that, especially if they are more than, say, 29 years old.

I was glad the Packers gave Aaron Jones a big contract in 2021, but I would be leery of them giving him another big contract at this point. It could backfire very easily.

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greengold's picture

July 20, 2023 at 04:39 pm

Well said, Greg, and I agree. RBs are getting shafted. I really dislike the positional pay discrepancies varying this widely.

Nothing about this seems fair. Marginal starting QBs making 3-4x what some of the best players make at other positions?

It’s been ongoing for years. Joe Flacco made 3x what Ray Rice made, and 4x what Ed Reed made with the Ravens.


Ahman Green came to my painting studio on a Gallery Night about 10 years ago, brought in by a dear friend of mine. What a gem of a gentleman. We spoke for a long time. Told him how much I appreciated his play during the Favre/Sherman years, and felt badly he didn't get more opportunities.

Dynamite guy.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

July 20, 2023 at 05:30 pm

I guess RB salaries are based on market value. So many teams way overpaid for RBs in previous years and then were sorry they had made that mistake, since there are so many good RBs coming up in the draft each year. And having a top back just doesn't translate to a lot of wins, as you can tell by the names on the franchised list. The Panthers overpaid Christian McCaffrey and then traded him and their running game improved. The Vikings Peterson would have amazing stats but they'd still lose the game.

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stockholder's picture

July 20, 2023 at 06:11 pm

They want money-
I want more yards.
I want less fumbles.
I want less drops.
I want that 1st down.
I want to see that speed
when they were drafted.
We don't need a roll player.
We're in a Rebuild,
Now might be the time to trade them.

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Savage57's picture

July 21, 2023 at 06:13 am

You come across as needy and entitled.

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stockholder's picture

July 21, 2023 at 06:26 am

Options - Nothing more.
I hope they do well.

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jannes bjornson's picture

July 21, 2023 at 10:58 am

See who the top three are out of Summer Session. Would Belichick have extended Jones after the big game fumbles? Doubtful. I am pushing for Nichols III.

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lou's picture

July 20, 2023 at 06:15 pm

The pay grade is what it is and the agents and the running backs they represent have to adjust to it. As a kid running back was the glamour position prior to teams moving to the flanker formation and having tight ends that were split out to add to the passing game. A few years back a few of the top tight ends when they were free agents wanted to be listed as wide receivers based on their stats because that was a higher pay tier, few if any were able to do so. The 3 backs referred to were special players, you have to include Grant even though his career was shorter, never forget that he fumbled twice early in the "Snow Globe Game" but ended up with over 200 yards rushing, he was so determined to make a difference and he did. Another back not mentioned was Dorsey Levens, a solid all around runner with WR hands to go with it. In regards to pay, Leven's held out and missed almost all of the training camp and the exhibition games and based on the contract they put him out too early in the regular season and he was injured and never really the same player. Same thing happened to Antonio Freeman which leads back to the NFL being a Big Business.

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marpag1's picture

July 20, 2023 at 07:53 pm

"Half of the last 10 Super Bowl-winning teams ranked in the Top 10 of the league for rushing. So if a solid run game can still get you to the promised land..."

This is woefully illogical and misleading... five of the last 10 super bowl winners were in the top 10 for rushing, therefore this proves that they won the super bowl on the strength of their rushing attack?? Not because of defense? Not because of their passing?

Did you consider that SEVEN of the last 10 super bowl winners were in the top 10 in passing?

Let's talk about those three who weren't in the top 10 in passing. In 2013 Seattle won. They were 26th in passing, 4th is rushing, 1st in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Maybe defense had something to do with it?

In 2015 Denver won. They were 14th in passing, but they were worse at rushing, ranking 19th. They were first in total defense and fourth in scoring defense.

In 2017 Philly won. They were 13th in passing, 3rd in rushing and 4th in total defense and 4th in scoring defense.

Are any of these clear examples of a team winning because of an overpowering rushing attack?

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jannes bjornson's picture

July 21, 2023 at 11:00 am

Top-ranked O-Lines get you the gold.

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JosephR's picture

July 21, 2023 at 07:55 pm

Sir, you are woefully misrepresenting my statement.

This article is about running backs and their contribution to their teams in relation to their compensation, that's the focus. There are three phases to the game: offense, defense, and special teams. This article focuses on one phase(half of it at that, but to be fair I mentioned scrimmage yards to account for what RBs added to the passing game).

You conveniently left out the previous sentence that acknowledged the evolution of the game to a more pass-oriented offense to make this argument so let me restate it for you: "Despite the game growing to a more pass-first offensive scheme, despite an era where more quarterbacks throw for over 4,000 yards a season than not, half of the last 10 Super Bowl winners still were Top-10 in the league for rushing."

This article never stated, or otherwise made an attempt to prove that a top RB was the ONLY reason a team won the Super Bowl.

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greengold's picture

July 21, 2023 at 10:25 pm

Way to BE, Joseph! Thank you for this and know your work is greatly appreciated.

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cdoemel's picture

July 21, 2023 at 01:01 am

On the one hand, I think the dude needs to get a life. On the other, I guess we’re happy for his detailed examination of stuff?

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JosephR's picture

July 21, 2023 at 07:43 pm

The product would cease to exist if the demand did the same.

I thank you for your support.

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Wisma Packer's picture

July 21, 2023 at 07:28 am

"The Packers, while normally heralded for their elite passers throughout history: Starr, Favre, Rodgers, Love(just go with it)"

Awesome! I'm ready to go with it Joseph! 😁

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LambeauPlain's picture

July 21, 2023 at 08:57 am

Always easy to encourage others to spend money you have no accountability for.

Both Ahman and Ryan were well paid to play for a team, city, state they wanted to be in. And both didn't do much to justify the big paydays the earned after leaving the Packers.

AJ, like these other two outstanding Packer RBs, wants to be a Packer. I don't hear him complaining about his salary. What's the reason to pay him more...especially when the cap is a very tight fit?

Could he make more with another team. Maybe. I don't think AJ would trade his leadership role, respect, involvement in the playbook, and the location for marginal income.

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coolhand's picture

July 21, 2023 at 02:02 pm

Joseph, I agree with one thing you mentioned about RBs. They can come in a game as a rookie and make an immediate impact. There usually isn't the longer learning curve like a QB or WR or TE. So, most of these guys are on rookie deals which are low cost contracts. And how many are still around after their first contract? And a team could usually find a replacement since RBs can be had in later rounds of the draft or as practice squad pick ups. I believe these things all contribute to RBs making less money in most cases.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

July 21, 2023 at 09:13 pm

I think the obvious problem is paying a RB a lot of money guaranteed, and then getting hurt and never being able to deliver on what he was already paid. The obvious solution is to not guarantee them so much that the team goes in the hole, and to structure their pay based on performance.

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The_Justicar's picture

July 24, 2023 at 06:28 am

The rule changes starting way back in 1978 and continuing through today we’re all made to favor offense and the passing game. Thus, the RB which was once the central focus of an offense is now NOT that central focus. And thus, the devaluing of the position and the $ that goes with it,

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