Nice article TGR. I agree that unless Rodgers is willing to take a bit less, at this time his trade value is as high as it will get. The older he gets the less trade value.

I think the team has a better chance in 2022 season with Rodgers of course. But if he demands full MVP money the team is going to lose other key players and will likely be less than a championship squad. Great QB's keep you in contention year after year so every team wants one. Usually they are not enough on their own to win a title though. Need some significant talent throughout the roster.

I hate to say it but I think the recent championship "window" has closed. Without a hometown discount I think the Pack should move on.

If Rodgers and Adams could structure their deals that didn't hamstring the rest of the cap, then bring them both back. But somehow I don't see those guys taking less than every possible $.

One day he's gone and next he's back....
time will tell if he suits up for the Pack. (I'll see myself out)

Keep in mind, AR is concerned about himself 2022,23,24. Russ Ball has to keep looking at the long term. Hate to see th Packers mortgage their future. In 2024 and after, AR won’t care about Packer success.

Great article, nice work but my head exploded. For me the bottom line, Rodgers has out lived his usefulness at 39. You dont ruin the entire team so the manager, and gm can keep their jobs in tact a few more years. The losers would be the fans for years and years to come. Right now our entire receiving core are free agents. That alone talks of screwing up money management to accomodate pasts Rodgers contracts.
Trading him for picks and sucking up and rebuilding is the only move as far as I'm concerned. Trust me mgmt doesnt have any gutts trying to run a team without a hof QB.
I'm also convinced they dont want to win superbowls if it means spending big money on free agents and moving up in the draft for top players. As long as they get in the playoffs, its ok, Everything is fine.

Hate to say this, but I agree. the same cap that has allowed Green Bay and other small market teams to compete with their deep pocketed big city rivals, is now beckoning them to spend wisely and move along down the road. Rodgers still has value now, one shot ike the one he took from Barr a few years back could be the end. The Packers at this point need to look long term. Packers have a quality wide receiver in house, a decent offense line core, and a good defense. The team cannot win without these things. Granted, AR is a very good , possibly great qb, the most accurate of all time, but its time to let coach Lafluer to coach up Love and see what the kid has. If he isnt the guy, and the team has a bad year, they will have a high draft pick to select a class of 23 qb, and theres some good ones coming out. To let go of a bunch of good players to save one aging qb is a bad idea. Get the picks, sign your free agents, and go forward. We will all miss Rodgers, but resigning him and mortgaging the future is a non starting point. GO PACK GO

I'm not going to become a GM overnight to figure this out. To me, it comes down to the fact that to win a SB, you need a superstar QB. Everyone knows that AR is one. I don't see that MLF has proven himself able to pull it all together and I tend to blame him more than AR for the loss to SF. I think AR carried the team much more than MLF did. MLF's coaching faults have been a major non discussion in our post season. Besides, nobody seems to be saying the Love is the answer. So if we let AR go, we are left with what seems to be virtually no chance for a SB and being led by a noticeably flawed, despite his record, head coach.

It might not be possible to keep AR money-wise. But if he goes, be prepared for frustrating mediocrity for many years until we happen upon another superstar QB.

The cap issue is tough, but if most fans thought he was a “team guy” it would be a no brainer, but most fans including me believe that’s not the case.

Ever since they cut Jordy and signed Jimmy Graham for roughly the same amount of money the trust issues became more exemplified. I can feel for Rodgers that we haven’t spent draft capital on a WR since Adams, (Tee Higgins from 2020 draft and OBJ in the Super Bowl) but at a certain point you have to put your arms around the guys on your team and make them better and get with them on the sidelines to figure things out.

On a side note if AJ Dillon doesn’t break his ribs the Pack probably win the game.

Thank you, TGR, always appreciate your insights.

The detailed numbers do blow my mind, especially in the context of Rodgers' statement that he does not want to be part of a "rebuild". Not sure if I'm correct, but I believe he also said he wants to continue playing on the same team as Davante Adams.

Starting out so far over the projected cap and with limited large contracts to kick the can further down the road, it's hard to imagine that even Russ Ball could devise a plan to avoid a rebuild if both are re-signed.

So, to my mind blown by the numbers, it sounds like #12 has already said good-bye.

Get read for DOUBLE TROUBLE then...

https://www.totalprosports.com/2022/02/04/report-green-bay-packers-prepa...

SMH

I'm afraid Mark Murphy, Gutey, and Russ Ball are fine with the status quo, no matter what it cost the Packers, and they keep their jobs...

Rumors of a mega deal after reading TGR's article makes me want to puke my guts up and I haven't even had a drink today...

SSMH

Aaron Rodgers is one of the greatest regular season QBs ever. But GB is 1-4 in their last NFCCG's with him as the QB. Is it his fault alone? Of course not. But when did he play like an MVP in any of those 4 losses? The last two, the game was there for the taking, but the results were 3 and outs multiple times with the game on the line.

2021 was the year with bringing everyone back. It ended with a divisional round loss with home field advantage. Why on earth would anyone think next year will be any different with a less talented roster and AR12 a year older?

This offseason will be the last that GB can get any significant return in a trade. It's time to do what's best for the franchise and move on. I hope the FO has the required vision to realize that. I'm not overly confident that they do.

I guess there is some hope that AR turns down a Mega Deal with GB, but I doubt it.

Common sense told me that last year they would let Aaron Jones walk and draft another RB, and they signed him to decent contract.

This year I figured they would trade AR, ride with Love, since Gutey traded up in the 1st round to draft the kid, and it looks like they're going to sign him to a mega deal... I just don't get it.

I guess they figured since it seemed like AR was declining they would draft Love, and then AR pulls off two MVP seasons in a row, making them look stupid...

I still don't see how we can pull this shit off? AR Mega Deal isn't a terrible thing, but how are we going to field a team? I guess we'll have to wait and see?

They want Rodgers back. Murphy even said," he wants him back." The goal here is a winning QB. Your point is they can't afford him. I say the Packers must honor his contract. And they will. Even if it costs players. I get everyone has their price. But-Rodgers came back! The fences are mended. They're not going to cut him, and turn this into a media spectacle. They offered money to Favre. They will give money to Rodgers. Rodgers only needs to say," I'm going to honor my contract."

My guess is Rodgers retires and starts touring the country giving lectures on critical thinking and epidemiology. Either that or maybe he starts doing reverse mortgage commercials. I would imagine that he will first consult with Dr. Joe Rogan before making any decisions about his future.

"The Cap Suggests Moving On From Rodgers
When I think about Aaron Rodgers' future in Green Bay using words, I want to keep him, but not when I look at numbers."

Personally I think this sums it up, and it should be that easy. The Packers are already in cap hell in 2022 due to two reasons. The cap didn't go up in 2021, instead it went down, yet the Packers still pushed all in for the year. They had the best roster in the entire NFL IMO in 2021 and still couldn't get it done. Now, in 2022 with what would almost certainly be a weaker team IMO, the idea is to try again with the same QB and a weaker team?

Rodgers is 7-9 since winning the SB after the 2010 season. 2 years ago he said he wanted one in Lambeau after getting crushed by the 49ers. In 2020 he got one at home, but it wasn't really a TRUE home game because Lambeau was short about 75,000 screaming fans due to COVID. So finally, EVERYTHING Rodgers had asked for. A PACKED Lambeau Field, frigid temperatures, a bye, a warm weather team, and a defensive performance that would have made Fritz Shurmur and the 1996 Packers Defense proud, and HE STILL DIDN'T GET IT DONE.

PLEASE Gute, don't destroy the Packers future. You have the opportunity to not only field a pretty damn good team in 2022, but you give Jordan Love what he needs most...EXPERIENCE, and you get a ONE TIME CHANCE at getting something back for Rodgers.

BTW...He's not retiring. There is NO WAY Rodgers retires and goes into the HOF the same day Brady does. His EGO couldn't handle being the runner-up on the HOF stage too.

TGR, thank you for your efforts. We are lucky that you are the member of this site.

As of some posters here who wrote that Packers want winner at QB, my answer is: 1:4 in the last 5 post season games. That is not the winner.

I also agree that we can not put everything on AR in the last game, but he share a lot of guilt. MLF is another one with substantial share (not making changes at STC, being to servant to AR wishes, throwing red flag in at least very questionable situations, missing back up plans, when original game plan does not working, etc), Mike Murphy for dictating moves to FO, and not giving the free hands to people responsible for their job.

But, at the end, it is all about execution during the game. And that is on AR shoulders.

I am firmly for trading AR. Because I really want to have joy watching Packers playing meaningful games in the near future. If it will be year or 2 with strugling, we all can survive that period if light will come soon. But, if we ruin the future by being blackmailed by 2 persons - AR & Mike Murphy, only what we can expect will be years of misery.

I believe you nailed it with the “GM safeguarding their jobs” line!

1. Resigning Rodgers guarantee’s at least a playoff wildcard.
2. Resigning Rodgers also covers up the fact that they probably wasted a #1 pick on Jordan Love. If he was the future the Packers would move on with a boatload of picks acquired in a Rodgers trade.

Moving on from Favre to Rodgers was a painful yet cunning move that paid off handsomely.
Moving on from Rodgers to Love the Packers front office already knows would be a massive disaster that could set the franchise back for a decade.
Draft mistakes have consequences and the Packers are showing their cards that they made a major blunder in drafting Jordan Love.
I hope this is not the case but the Packers are showing their hand and it’s not coming up Aces!

The cap issues the Packers have will cause them to make tough decisions for several players. I think Rodgers gets traded for draft picks, from some team enamored with getting a 4 time MVP QB. I see Davante leaving the team, too. I also see Cobb, Zadarious, Crosby and maybe Bakhtiari leaving, as well. It would not surprise me to see Gute trade Bakhtiari for picks, or a FA. Our D Line has shown that Nijman, Runyon can play Bakh's spot, fairly well, and if the Packers take an OT early, in the draft, as I suspect they will, depending on the trade deal they get for Rodgers, Bakh's time in GB could be at an end. I am hoping if Davante leaves, we can keep our other WRs such as MVS, ESB and Lazard. It will not be smooth sailing for awhile, in GB, but at least we are not stuck with Cousins.

Here's my overly cynical take. Murphy, Gute, and MLF want AR to stay at any cost because AR helps them keep their jobs. As long as they keep AR happy (part-time GM...sure!), they are almost guaranteed to be over .500 and in the playoffs.

Thanks TGR!
As someone else says your article makes my head explode.

My comments are if the Packers could not win in 2017 and 2018 with a younger Rodgers and lesser talent with less than 500 seasons why should anyone now expect Rodgers being 4 & 5 years older will win with less talent going forward? Wasn't it obvious all year (2021) that Rodgers could not throw a deep ball accurately to MVS? That he no longer can break the pocket and out run many DL who are 60 to 80 lbs heavier? Yes, he brings experience and ball management which obviously are critical but in the most important game of the year he played down consistently making bad decisions missing open receivers, and throwing into double teams. This type of play you would expect with a young QB (see: https://youtu.be/4Nms8vyLKAk) but not a wily experienced QB like Rodgers.

Even with the distracting narcistic diva behaviors with Rodgers aside how anyone could think they need to resign Rodgers to a multiple year extension putting the team in cap hell makes absolutely no sense. MLF and Murphy have now gone public claiming they want Rodgers to return. Whether that is public non-sense for PR's I do not know. While a big supporter of the Packers front office and decision making up to this point should they resign Rodgers putting the team in cap hell requiring the loss of quality players I firmly feel the executive board needs to clean house. The decision should be very clear not only is Rodgers play deteriorating (MVP because of talent surrounding Rodgers, and MLF's scheme) but he also does not look out for the team throwing only to those players he likes. Should Rodgers be resigned than Love was a horrible choice and likely to be a bust. Up to this point MLF in my mind has not done everything he could have done to prepare Love and get him the experience he needed even with covid aside.

With the CAP situation, if Rodgers stay...he'll still lose because his team will have to be built from a small cadre of players.
There's not another run next year unless everyone decides to take a pay cut. Do you see that happening?

Excellent analysis TGR! I'm glad we have you to break down the numbers, because like others have noted, it makes my head hurt too. While there might be ways to move money around, I have a hard time seeing Rodgers being willing to take any pay cut.

I think the front office learned after last season that communication is critical -- internally amongst themselves -- and externally to players like Rodgers. Publicly, they are all consistently messaging the same thing: they want him back....but privately, between them what we don't know is, at what cost? I have a hard time believing that Gute, LaFleur, Russ Ball and Mark Murphy are saying "at any cost, yeah!!"

I can only speculate, but perhaps they're messaging is to ensure publicly that the fans know they are not pushing him out. But if they are more transparent with him about the ripple effect of keeping him, Adams, MVS, then he might start to understand the bigger picture of just how different this team will look (and he doesn't want to play for a "rebuilding" team....please define "rebuild," Mr. Rodgers).

Perhaps the telling signs will be if they start re-structuring guys' contracts, pushing money into the future to free up cap space -- but if they start aggressively doing it, then tag Adams, then I think they'll go all in again. The only question mark is, will they extend Rodgers one more year to keep him as a trade option in 2023? Because if he plays out his contract, then he may walk for just a comp. pick, and when we could get a king's ransom right now, a comp. pick for Aaron Rodgers is an absurd waste.

Thank you, TGR. You have a lot more patience with the details than I do, and I appreciate that. I’m kind of “big brush” kind of painter myself. I like to chart a course and deal with the details along the way.

In any event, we’ve arrived at the same conclusion. However…the 1265 Braintrust is making noise about bringing him back next year. Either they’re serious, or it’s just theater. What do you think?

I believe it’s theater, because as you pointed out, there’s a dozen cold, hard facts that make trading Rodgers the smart move. I could be wrong. He could be our guy again next year. I wouldn’t like it, but that doesn’t make any difference

I’m a big fan of simplicity, particularly when you’re dealing with a bunch of moving parts. Trade Rodgers to Denver for the cap relief, the #9 pick, and Jeudy. Use the pick to strengthen the defense, use our own #28 to get a premium TE. Rely on a good ground game and defense while Love gets experience.

And that’s the last I’m going to speculate.

If I want anyone to actually take me seriously, I have to talk about the financial and roster-building issues that surround keeping Aaron Rodgers and why that forces the Packers to make a rational decision to trade him, and likely Adams, in 2022 for the benefit of the team over the next 3-7 years.

If nobody talks about Rodgers' tendency to be a massive PITA and his history of going off the script in big games and letting his tunnel-vision / trust issues derail a successful playoff run, it's a testament to how willfully blind Packers fans are.. and maybe we deserve to watch this team fall apart over the next decade.

Most talented coach killer of all time.
Too bad it takes the entire team down with the coach, too.

Number of top paid QBs in the Super Bowl: ZERO.

The cap will probably explode two-three years from now. He would be affordable then but he would be three years older as well. I am leaning on the idea that Ball has a plan to rework his contract. It’s the other players that I worry about. We can’t do both.
Murphy says he wants to keep him. If Rodgers agrees then we will. But the supporting cast will change drastically.

Great article TGR. The Rodgers contract issues are playing out as expected. It's all about what the Packers can get in a trade at this point, and dealing with the fallout from his contract. Even if the Cap has a bump up over the next two years, it will not help the front office. (The downside of drafting well. PAY THE MAN! Packers front office: With what?) Outside of a few teams, most are facing the same situation the Packers are to some degree. No one inside knows what Cap number will be next years, and that is even with the monster TV ratings the league got this past season. As I said at the beginning of Rodger's off-season show, this was his last season and that was mostly dictated by the structure of his contract. Also, Lafleur is in his final year, don't think for a second that Gutekunst is not preparing for that too. The only question left is how big a teardown are the Packers willing to do before reloading, or more likely rebuilding. Nuts.... (sigh)

Rodgers has been masking Lefluer’s flaws , if Rodgers leaves we will see the real Lefluer.

I guess were still coming back to moving Rodgers. Which is a Mistake. The player to move on from is Adams. And then there is the draft for replacement. So let me tell you what happens if you move on from Adams. They never again have to worry about the 30mil. Next The Smith, Amos and Turner could stay. Because Rodgers contract runs out next year. And reworking their contracts gives them money. The biggest mistake Gutey could make! Is drafting a guy to replace his free Agent class. He found them. He doesn't need to find their replacements in the draft. If they're done being here. He will find other veterans.!!! Leaving the solution for his draft this way. Burks is the only WR you take in the 1st rd. But the smart play is the DL. Yes KeKE must be replaced. The run on the WRS is in the 2nd rd. Draft 2 throughout the draft. He must replace Lowrey and KeKE. IT's been the problem; just as much as the special Teams.

So 12 said after the season that he wouldn’t drag things out like last year. Wasn’t fair to the Packers or his team mates. Very honorable. Are we to believe he doesn’t know if he wants to play next year yet? Or does he want to stay with the Packers without Hacket, Getsy and probably Cobb and Crosby? I have a hard time believing he doesn’t know. Could this be a decision you just wake up one morning and think “ yes I think I want to play next year”? The team and team mates he cares about have a lot to do in the next month. New league year starts March 15?

Thanks for the article. You have strong arguments as to why a return of AR should not be desirable for the Packers. He's unlikely to take a discount; GB cannot match guaranteed money or contracts others can; and trade value isn't getting higher with time. Green Bay should not want an AR return, probably.

It has nothing about the Cap for me. 0-3 in the last 3 seasons Playoffs, still throwing to mostly one WR. This has been a roller coaster and I'm ready to get off this ride. I have Bashed the DC...the Defense over these years and Always the ST..And Always AR not just moving the chains. This Year the Defense played as well as one could ask. The ST imploded and so did our Offenses effort after an impressive initial drive. I have come to the conclusion AR needs to be surrounded by a near perfect team in order to function at a high level in a playoff game and if that's the case any top 15 QB could do better than what we have gotten these last 3 post seasons. I know this because I see where a QB could run it in for a win or see multiple 3 and out plays that have at least 2 other options to either make a first down or a TD that were missed or not even looked at. That's not gonna get it done. Time to move on

I’m totally tired of Rodgers; the drama, the whining, the victimhood, the Davante-vision, the droopy dog look, the man-bun, the playoff choke, the finger pointing, the funny hats at the Derby, the starlet girlfriends, Joe Rogan, the Groundhog Day seasons, etc.etc. Get rid of him, cap or no cap. If you would have told me ten years ago that I would like Brady better than Rodgers, I would’ve died laughing. But it has happened.

However, he will be here next season because Jake and Elwood only know one strategy, putting the band back together.

It was called the “Last Dance” because it was the LAST Dance. Unless Rodgers is hooked on Groundhog Day, he’s playing for another team (likely the Broncos) next season or retiring. Fortunately, we won’t have to deal with all the wishful speculation for much longer. The Packers will have to move on. GPG.