The Lass Word: Breaking Down the Playoff Picture
Pack has little margin for error.
By KenLass
Here we go, week eleven of the NFL regular season. The stretch run for playoff position. By this point there is usually some clarity as to how the post season is going to materialize. Of course, there is always the chance a losing team will get red hot and burst unexpectedly into the picture. The Packers were such a team last season. But based on what has transpired thus far, here’s how things break down.
There are sixteen teams in the NFC competing for seven playoff spots. Four division winners and three wild card teams will advance. At this point, six teams can be eliminated, barring some sort of miracle turnaround. The Bears, Cowboys, Giants, Bucs, Saints and Panthers are out. Two other teams, the Rams and the Seahawks, are likely out, and would have to make substantial runs to get in.
Let’s project the four division winners to be the Lions, Eagles, Cardinals and Falcons. They would be in. That leaves four teams, the Packers, Vikings, Commanders and 49ers, vying for three spots. At the present time Green Bay is behind the Vikings and Commanders, but ranks ahead of the 49ers. The Packers currently stand in the seventh slot and would be the last team in. Can they hold on to that position down the stretch, or perhaps even improve on it? Let’s look at the comparative schedules.
The Vikings appear to have a relatively favorable road. They play the Bears twice, and they get the Cardinals, Falcons and Packers at home. They end the season on the road at Detroit, but keep in mind, by that time, the Lions may have everything locked up and may be resting starters. The Vikings look pretty strong to make it in.
Likewise, the Commanders’ remaining schedule looks to be kind. They get the Cowboys twice, also play the Saints and the Titans, and they get the Falcons at home. They do have to play home and away against the Eagles. The jury is still somewhat out as to whether the Commanders are solid enough to keep up their current level of playoff caliber football, but the guess here is that they will win enough games to nail down a wild card spot.
The 49ers have a tougher task ahead of them. They are presently one game out of the playoff bracket. They have road games at Green Bay and at Buffalo, plus highly competitive divisional games against the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals. However, Christian McCaffery is back, the Niners are as healthy as they have been all season, and there are still many who believe that, when they are fully intact, they are the best team in the conference.
So where does that leave the Packers? It will be imperative that Green Bay takes care of business in two games against the Bears, and in home games against the Dolphins and Saints. They simply can’t afford to slip in those games, because they are also looking at difficult road challenges at Detroit and Minnesota, and another at the always challenging Seattle venue. The key game right now is the week twelve contest at home against the 49ers. Win that one, and they push the Niners further behind them, and gain the tiebreaker advantage. Lose it, and they risk falling out of the top seven.
First things first. The Packers have not always played well coming out of their bye week. They are going to be on the road against their arch rivals. The Bears have spent the entire week listening to everybody telling them how awful they are. They have a new offensive coordinator who may be planning some surprises. They are a desperate team playing to save their season. The coach is trying to save his job. They will be pulling out all the stops.
Green Bay is the better team. They should, and perhaps must, win this game. It’s time to eliminate the silly penalties, stop the interceptions and the drops, and make those field goals. Nothing is sweeter than beating the Bears. Even more important is building momentum for the showdown the following week against the Niners.
The time is now for the Packers to get hot. Now or never.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (20)
HarryHodag
November 14, 2024 at 02:52 pm
Amen, Ken!
You laid out the case for the Packers and honestly it's win and you're in. This is the time of the year when the run game and defense have to go to the next level.
NJ-RICK
November 14, 2024 at 03:14 pm
It all boils down to DEFENSE gentlemen... If the Packers can produce more pressure on the opposing QB everything else on Defense will fall into place. Disappointed Gute didn't pick up another Pass rusher before the trading deadline. Hope for the best, and it all starts this weekend against Dah Bears...!!!!
TheBigCat
November 14, 2024 at 03:40 pm
I believe the onus is on the coaches (positional, coordinators and HC) right now: to develop the correct game plans for the specific opponent, to make the proper adjustments during the game, to keep the players focused, keep the pedal on the metal. By now, the coaches should know their team, and how to get the most out of each of them to move forward. It's time to put on their Big Boy Pants.
splitpea1
November 14, 2024 at 03:47 pm
I'd rather concentrate on the two biggest areas of needed improvement in the second half for us to secure a favorable playoff seed. 1) Jordan Love has to be more careful with the ball. In the final eight games of 2023, he threw for 18 TDs and only 1 INT. Anywhere close to this in the second half of 2024 will do fine. 2) Find a consistent pass rush without having to resort to unconventional methods. The Packers, even if they make the playoffs, won't go far without it.
And we had better beat the Bears--not because it's a necessity in the standings, but because they're an incompetent franchise in disarray right now and they deserve to be beaten. They have never fired a head coach in mid-season in their entire history, and if this situation doesn't call for it, then nothing does (you would think they wouldn't want to ruin another QB's psyche). So pour it on, Packers.
GregC
November 14, 2024 at 05:17 pm
I think there is actually quite a bit of margin for error. If the Packers lose three of the last eight games, they will be 11-6 and will almost certainly make the playoffs. It's not like all of the teams ahead of them are going to run the table. Not mentioned in the article is that the Cardinals are 6-4 , which is a half game worse than the Packers and only a half game better than the 49ers. The Cardinals are not favored to win their division, and they have to play the 49ers again, who they beat by one point when Christian McCaffrey was out of the lineup. Meanwhile, the Vikings are only one game ahead of the Packers and appear to be trending downward, as their QB looks more and more like Sam Darnold. The Commanders are only a half game ahead of the Packers and have been playing over their heads, while the Eagles are only one game ahead of the Packers. There are multiple roads for the Packers to make the playoffs with three losses and quite possibly with four. Of course, if they lose to teams they should beat--like, say, the Bears--things will get much more challenging.
Starrbrite
November 14, 2024 at 08:48 pm
An excellent summary Greg.
I completely agree with you about the Vikings; they couldn’t score a TD against the Jags. Goff somehow beat the Texans with five interceptions. Some of these other teams will stumble.
I’ll be at the 9’rs game—they have been our kryptonite and it’s time we change that.
Leatherhead
November 14, 2024 at 05:27 pm
""" The Commanders are only a half game ahead of the Packers and have been playing over their heads,""""
That sounds an awful lot like "He's not that good, he just plays better than he is".
Assume the 4 division winners are the Commies, the Falcons, the 49ers, and the Lions. We're in the Wildcard hunt with Eagles, Vikings, and maybe somebody else, like the Rams. We need to win games, which means we need to score points, which means we have to quit turning it over, dropping passes, and committing penalties.
We're a very good offense despite everything, and if we pull it together, I don't see who is going to stop us.
GregC
November 14, 2024 at 06:25 pm
""" The Commanders are only a half game ahead of the Packers and have been playing over their heads,""""
That sounds an awful lot like "He's not that good, he just plays better than he is".
Well, they beat the Bears a few weeks ago on a very weird Hail Mary play, so there's that.
It's not controversial to project that some teams are likely to underperform the rest of the way, compared to their records, while others are likely to overperform. Don't you think the 49ers are likely to do better than their 5-4 record suggests?
LLCHESTY
November 14, 2024 at 08:08 pm
Why would you think the Commanders are going to win the East? They have the easier schedule but the Eagles have a better, more talented team.
Starrbrite
November 14, 2024 at 08:53 pm
I believe the Commies are better than the Eagles. Sirianni imo is one of the worst coaches in the league—I don’t know how he kept his job after last year’s debacle.
Guam
November 14, 2024 at 10:31 pm
The Eagles just beat the Commanders (TNF) which puts the Commanders at 7 - 4. If the Packers take care of business against the Bears they will be 7 - 3 and a half game ahead of the Commanders. I think Washington and SF will be fighting it out for the last playoff berth.
Leatherhead
November 15, 2024 at 07:45 am
Because they don't beat themselves. They don't turn it over. They score on 50% of their possessions. The Eagles may have a better, more talented team (in your opinion), but on the field, the Commies are outperforming them. Yes, Philadelphia won a close, must-win game on their homefield last night, but I still think the Commies will win that division.
Bitternotsour
November 15, 2024 at 08:47 am
Get that kid out of the pocket and the Commanders are in real trouble. The key to beating them is getting him off the spot. Not saying it's easy, it's just the way.
Philly is the best team in the NFC. They have Barkley and they have a more than functional quarterback who knows how to win and doesn't panic. They win that division hands down. Detroit is a mirage. The Commanders are comers, but they're only going as far as a rookie QB is able to go. Put Barkley on the Commanders and it might be a different story.
T7Steve
November 15, 2024 at 09:26 am
More importantly, if push comes to shove, the Eagles have one of the highest ranked Ds in the NFL, so you have to shade to that. Washington's D is improving each week, though.
stockholder
November 14, 2024 at 07:03 pm
The 49ers only have to beat the packers.
Then like always- Who gets HELP.
White92
November 14, 2024 at 07:15 pm
Well written!
canadapacker
November 14, 2024 at 07:38 pm
If there ever was a trap game this is it. I am really concerned about this game - for two reasons -""""" Immediately after the bye, the story isn’t nearly as rosy. The Packers under LaFleur are 2-3."""" = And the Bears are coming off of a firing of their OC and criticism on guys like Moore quitting on the team. Love remember this the Pack OWNS da Bears
Green Bay Shareholder
November 15, 2024 at 12:23 pm
It is not just getting to the Playoffs - more importantly they have to PLAY like a Playoff or Championship caliber team, which we have rarely seen against Playoff caliber teams this year. They have improved the kicking game - finally, hoorah ! But the dumb penalties and sometimes very poor decision making process by Love as well as a toothless pass rush are not indicative of a successful playoff run. Talent is there - I believe, so that's good but the focus seems very erratic - dropped passes, pre snap penalties etc.. We know what this team is capable of when they are on a mission and have a plan of attack and stick to it. The question now is can they execute, impose their will and score damn TDs in the Red Zone ! Go Pack
Packerpasty
November 15, 2024 at 12:33 pm
Pretty much a must win...this game will show me a lot about MLF, is he head coach material, or be better off being someones OC....I still have some doubts about him as a HC...I know im in the minority but still......prove me wrong..his leadership doesnt seem to produce a "tough" team mentality for one thing..
Leatherhead
November 16, 2024 at 02:53 pm
In the NFC, the Lions and the Eagles each have 8 wins. The Commies and the Vikings have 7. The Packers, Falcons, and Cardinals all have 6. SF has 5 wins, and can get to 6 by winning at home against Seattle. Those are the top 8 teams in the NFC. Minnesota, Green Bay, Philly/Washington, could all be wildcards.