The Lass Word: It's All About Injuries
Can Packers win the battle of attrition?
By KenLass
We spend roughly five months analyzing our team in the offseason. Did we have a good draft? Which veterans will take a step forward? Where do we need to sign a veteran free agent? Is there a trade that looks good? What does the schedule look like?
We add up the stats and come to conclusions about what our expectations should be. By the time the season actually begins, we feel we’ve got a pretty good handle on just how good the Packers will be. Except we don’t.
We don’t because the single biggest factor hasn’t been figured in. Because it can’t be figured in in advance. The great unknown is injuries. We might have a team full of good players, but it doesn’t matter if they can’t play. Every year some teams seem to cruise through a season largely escaping critical injuries. And every year some teams are literally devastated by them.
This Sunday Green Bay faces its biggest challenge and most important game of the season thus far. Nothing less than first place is on the line when they kick it off against the Lions at Lambeau. It figures to be a major challenge for the green and gold even if they are at full strength. But as the big game looms, the availability of several key players is in doubt. Quarterback Jordan Love has a groin injury, safety Evan Williams hurt his hamstring, cornerback Jaire Alexander has a gimpy knee. Others who sat out practice on Wednesday include running back Josh Jacobs, and the entire left side of the offensive line consisting of center Josh Myers, guard Elgton Jenkins and tackle Rasheed Walker.
The Packers will get no sympathy from the Lions, who have already lost all-world pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson for the season, and explosive receiver Jameson Williams to suspension. The truth is, most NFL seasons come down to a battle of attrition. Who can play the best football with the players they’ve got to work with?
Despite Love nursing his second injury of the season, and missing two games early on, the Packers have actually escaped reasonably healthy through week eight. None of the aforementioned players have been ruled out of the Lions game. The team currently has five players on injured reserve, MarShawn Lloyd, Ralen Gofourth, AJ Dillon, Luke Musgrave and Tyler Davis. None of those players would be considered a starter. Lloyd and Musgrave will be back at some point.
By comparison, the Lions have fourteen players on injured reserve, ten of whom won’t be back this season. Quarterback Jared Goff is nursing an ankle problem, and tackle Taylor Decker has a chest injury. Both sat out of workouts Wednesday but are expected to play Sunday.
Elsewhere in the division, the Bears have eight players on injured reserve, while the Vikings have seven, including starting tackle Christian Darrisaw, who is expected back, and promising rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy, who won’t be. In fact, Green Bay currently has the second lowest number of players on IR in the entire NFC. Only the Washington Commanders, with four, have fewer.
It’s not just how many injuries your team has. It’s how many of them are to key players. The Packers have been without two running backs, Lloyd and Dillon, for nearly all of the season. But neither was going to start ahead of Jacobs, and Emanuel Wilson and the emerging Chris Brooks have taken up the slack. Quay Walker missed the Jaguars game after failing to clear concussion protocol, but Eric Wilson and Edgerrin Cooper have arguably played better in his absence. But if someone like Alexander has to miss a game, it creates a huge hole in the backside of the defense that the team would be hard-pressed to fill. Look how the injury to Evan Williams weakened the pass coverage after he departed the Jacksonville game in the second quarter.
And, of course, the loss of Jordan Love for two games early should have been disastrous to the Packers’ early start, but Malik Willis has been shockingly effective in his absence, and may have to be again this Sunday.
How a team chooses to handle injuries can also be a big factor. Taking the long view can work out better than operating with urgency. The Packers could, and perhaps should, sit out Love and Jaire and Williams for this game if they are not one hundred percent. They likely can’t win the game without them, but the team will hit the bye week after playing the Lions, and it may be wiser to get everyone totally healthy for the stretch run.
So despite the shaky state of the line-up for this weekend’s critical game, the injury gods have, all things considered, smiled down upon the Green Bay Packers thus far. As we head down the home stretch of the drive for the playoffs, the most successful teams will likely also be the healthiest.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (18)
HawkPacker
October 31, 2024 at 03:20 pm
All of your factors make sense.
However, another factor needs to be mentioned. That is motivation. Yes these are professionals but they still need ongoing motivation to play the best they can play.
If they love their coach then there is some motivation to win the game. If a member of the other team says that we suck....now that is motivation.
It will be a tough game and everyone is on pins and needles wondering, if the injured, who will and will not play this Sunday.
SicSemperTyrannis
October 31, 2024 at 03:55 pm
I'm hoping MLF is cooking up a game plan for Malik at QB. I've had a groin injury, I don't see how the risk of playing JL10 this week is worth the reward. Possibly start Malik and bring in JL10 before Malik blows the game to an unrecoverable extent? Yes, even though that looks like putting JL10 in position of being our backup QB.
On Jordan's first game back, he was not attacked immediately, so starting him didn't turn out to be that bad. Trying to have him take every snap for the next 5 games failed; that's not really unforeseeable.
LLCHESTY
October 31, 2024 at 04:11 pm
He had a "limited" practice in the rain today. When LaFleur was asked if there was any consideration for sitting him because of the conditions he said no pretty quickly. I think he plays.
GregC
October 31, 2024 at 04:19 pm
If starting Jordan Love is not worth the risk, then bringing him off the bench when the team is behind is not worth the risk either. He will start if he is healthy enough to be effective and not at risk of severe injury. Groin injuries, like any other injuries, have a range of severity. It sounds like Love's injury is on the milder side. I would be happy to see him out there in a home game against our main contender for the division crown. We need all hands on deck for the Lions. This is one of the biggest games of the year.
PeteK
October 31, 2024 at 06:25 pm
At least develop a set of Pistol plays for Willis.
NickPerry
October 31, 2024 at 05:28 pm
Personally I'd rather see them SIT Love. What if he plays and he injures it further? What if he tore it right of the bone like Mark Tausher did a few years ago and REALLY had to sit out for a while? IMO it's not worth the risk. Rest him against the Lions and then the bye week. He'll have 3 weeks to get right and be ready for the most important stretch of the season.
The Packers CAN beat Detroit IN Detroit. We did it last year, we'll do it again. We'll kick Minnesota's ass in the Bird Cage because Love WON'T be coming off a knee injury after playing just one game (week one) and getting hurt.
Lets get EVERYBODY healthy, come back after the bye and beat the CRAP out of the Bears, and start a magical run to the SB!
Bitternotsour
October 31, 2024 at 06:55 pm
While I'd like to see Green Bay get playoff games at home, ultimately you need to get in the playoffs and hopefully be healthy. I think Leatherhead is correct, the team that wins this game is the immediate favorite for the Super Bowl, but I'd rather be a wild card team and be healthy, than a wounded division winner.
ricky
October 31, 2024 at 05:57 pm
Why exactly is it that the Packers couldn't win the game with Willis at QB? It would mean they became more one-dimensional (in theory), relying more heavily on the running game. Why couldn't that work with the Lions? We need to stop making these guys out as being unbeatable, and see them as a very good team that is going to play another very good team. If Hafley can come up with some unexpected blitzes, will Goff flourish or flounder? I don't believe the Packers feel they can't win the game without Love at QB. Anyone who does think this game is already lost has a right to their opinion. But I think you're wrong. The Packers are going to shock you and the rest of the world on Sunday.
Vachio
November 01, 2024 at 12:10 pm
I'm with you there. I actually think Willis might give us a better chance to beat the Lions than Love at this juncture. Love's aggressiveness this year, in combination with the injury limiting his overall abilities to some extend, makes it very likely that he'll have a critical turnover at some point or even at more than one point. Willis is going to play within the structure of the offense and take only what the defense gives him. Willis isn't going to go out and light them up with 4 TD passes, but he's also not going to give them multiple picks they can turn into points. Love is clearly the better QB over the long haul, but under these circumstances, I'd actually feel more comfortable with Willis.
NFLfan
October 31, 2024 at 06:21 pm
I think Jaire will play. Tests show knee injury isn't serious but is sore.
Jordan Love needs to sit.
stockholder
October 31, 2024 at 06:27 pm
I wouldn't start him.
Leatherhead
October 31, 2024 at 07:02 pm
Based on Lafleur's comments today, he'll play. Whether he finishes or not remains to be seen, but that's true every game. One good hit and he could get up limping.
In order to win the Super Bowl, you have to be able to overcome some injuries. In 2010, we had quite a few injuries to players.....About 10 guys ended up on IR, included Barnett and Finley. During the game, Woodson and Driver were both knocked out of the game by injury.
We've been very fortunate. We're going to be able to line up all of our preferred starters on offense, and we're probably only missing Williams on defense.
Cheezehead72
November 01, 2024 at 06:45 am
This is a game where it appears the Packers will not win. I know any team can win in the NFL after all the Browns won last week. I do not like playing players who are hurt especially soft tissue injuries that can be aggravated or could cause other injuries as they are compensating for the injured muscle.
The Packers are playing a very good team. This is a good game to see what the backups can do. They need to see what Willis can do when he is playing a good team and has the game plan made for him that allows him to do what he needs to do. Let's see what he has to offer. We also need to sit Myers. I do not like rotating players to fill in a hole on the O-line unless it is the last resort. Start Monk let's see what we have. We should be moving on from Myers next year so let's see what Monk brings to the table. Brooks should be RB2. I like Wilson but it appears Brooks is better.
On defense if Alexander is good to go it will help a lot as I am sure Williams will not be able to play. It will be nice to see Bullard in action the whole game. Being as the front four have been sitting on the bench eating Haribo Gummy Bears we need to five or six guys a lot. Put Walker in as the Will and Wilson as the Mike.
Let's see what this team has it might help in the second half.
Packerpasty
November 01, 2024 at 12:35 pm
if Love plays my bet is the Packers really try to run the ball not just now and then...cant be having Love sit in the pocket for very long then try to scramble..that could really be the end of him for an extended period if he reinjure's groin or knee
KurtMc
November 01, 2024 at 03:24 pm
Would rather Love sit it out Win or Loss. Would rather go on a possible 6-2 after bye run with a healthy team rather than cost into the playoffs beat up at QB. Plus, the more snaps Malik gets the more comfortable he becomes in the event Love goes down in the 2nd half.
KurtMc
November 01, 2024 at 03:25 pm
Would rather Love sit it out Win or Loss. Would rather go on a possible 6-2 after bye run with a healthy team rather than cost into the playoffs beat up at QB. Plus, the more snaps Malik gets the more comfortable he becomes in the event Love goes down in the 2nd half.
Go Pack
KurtMc
November 01, 2024 at 03:30 pm
Would rather Love sit it out Win or Loss. Malik adds a dimension to the game the Lions haven’t seen this year.
Would rather go on a possible 6-2 after bye run with a healthy team & healthy Love than slide into the playoffs beat up at QB. The more snaps Malik gets the more comfortable he becomes in the event Love goes down in the 2nd half.
Go Pack
pantz_bURp
November 01, 2024 at 05:30 pm
Injuries should really be called Outjuries.
This should be a really, really good game. I respect Dan Campbell and the Lions.
I believe the Pack will be ready. And if we can't clean the Lions' clock, well...let's make them turn it back an hour.
Coach Burp