Not great! The main talking point going into this game was that it could be a get-right game for the Packers. The Broncos offense has been decent this year, but their defense has been bad. Coming out of a bye, the hope was that the Packers would put together a complete, cohesive offensive performance. 

We did not get that. In fact, we didn’t even get a Packers victory. What we got was something that was cold, grey and potentially lasting for the rest of the season.

But what of the passing game? How did that look? Let’s start with the passing chart:

Maybe I'm crazy (a decent bet), but I thought Love played better on the rewatch than I did when watching live. He missed a couple throws and had some moments where his clocked seemed sped up (for good reason), but, for the most part, he seemed to make good decisions. It's just been the same thing as it has been all year: it seems there are very few plays when everyone is on the same page. There are plays when Love does everything right but 1 missed assignment leads the play to failure, and another where everyone is where they're supposed to be but Love just misses the throw. Even after this game, I don't feel too much differently about Love: he keeps a cool head, makes good decisions more often than not, but has some accuracy issues that rear their head. 

Back to the chart. If I’m not mistaken, this is only the second week this season that Jordan Love has turned in a positive CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected). Love’s EPA/Play (Expected Points Added per Play) was 0.32, which saw the second half performance carrying the first half. He had a -0.28 EPA/Play in the 1st half and 0.67 EPA in the 2nd half. (Per RBSDM)

That could have something to do with the approach. Love had an aDOT (average depth of target) of 2.4 yards in the 1st half (2nd lowest 1st half aDOT of the week) and an aDOT of 10.1 yards in the second half (6th highest 2nd half aDOT of the week). That amounted to an aDOT of 7.4 yards for the game, Love’s lowest of the season. 

It felt like that, and the passing chart certainly shows that. The low aDOT was a combination of a lot of things. Some of it was leaning on the quick game at times. Some of it was Love needing to get rid of the ball quickly because of pressure. Some of it was colliding receivers on deeper routes, leading to checkdowns. 

To this point in the season, the Packers have been a high variance offense. They’re not functioning at a level that allows them to consistently string together long drives. Part of that is the pass game, but part of that is the run game. They haven’t been good enough in the run game to keep on schedule in the way they want to, yet they’re calling runs on 37.8% of their plays. That ranks 18th in the league, which isn’t terrible, but they’re 21st in success rate on running plays. They’re not exactly lighting the world on fire in the passing game (16th in the league in success rate), but the short passing game has been coming along nicely and they’re generating more explosives in the passing game.

Based on what I've seen so far this year, this is what I'd like to see the Packers do going forwar: use the up-and-coming quick passing game to replace some of the running game and start targeting a little deeper outside of the quick-game. Use tempo to catch teams off-balance and get some more plays in (Packers are currently 29th in the league in plays run) and lean heavier into the passing game to help open up the run game. 

This is a well-designed, meticulously crafted offense, but they don’t have the pieces capable of running it like it needs to be run. Scale it back a bit, get your playmakers in a position to win some one-on-ones and let Love sling it. Easy, right? (It is not easy.)

I could go on for longer, but I feel I’ve prattled on enough. To the fun stuff.

Play 1: 3rd & 7, 2:46 remaining in the 1st quarter

This is such a fun twist on a quick-game concept the Packers have leaned into quite a bit this year, but also an example of what happens when one player is just a little off on what needs to be done.

The core concept is a quick-game staple called Hank. It’s a two man concept: the outside man runs a hitch route and the inside man runs a flat route. 

The Packers run this out of trips, with the #1 receiver running a dig, the #2 running a hitch and the #3 releasing to the flat. So it initially looks like Hank, but with a vertical run-off route. 

However, that’s not what they end up doing. The flat route from Jayden Reed [11] from the #3 spot is a wheel route. The route from #1 is intended to clear out the boundary, but also to threaten the safety so he can’t cap the wheel route. The Broncos spin from a two-high look to a single-high look post-snap, so that boundary route isn’t able to accomplish what it is intended to (as it’s picked up by the safety dropping down into the middle of the field). 

Still, there should be enough room to hit this, because the Packers have exactly what they need with the coverage over their receivers in trips. They’re all roughly on the same plane and lined up head-up over the receivers. It looks like man coverage, and the releases on Hank are designed to take advantage of that. Have the hitch receiver push deep enough (and make himself wide enough) to force the defender over the #3 receiver to either go over that route or run into it. That gives an ocean of free space to the flat. On this concept, that should have the #3 receiver screaming wide open up the sideline.

The issue is that the #2 receiver doesn’t quite push deep enough to truly upset the coverage, and the defender over the #3 is able to see the movement and avoid what little contact there would have been.

It’s good recognition from the defender to avoid the collision, but if Christian Watson [9] is able to push that route even 1 yard deeper, this had the potential to be a big gain. 

Certainly one to keep an eye on down the line.

Play 2: 4th & 2, 8:35 remaining in the 4th quarter

It had been a frustratingly ugly game, but the Packers are sitting at the Broncos 4 yard line midway through the 4th quarter, down by 6 points and facing 4th & 2. Not only did LaFleur dial up a beauty, but it’s something I’ve been begging to see more of from this offense this year. That’s right: it’s a vertical RPO!

The run is inside zone, with a follow/slant RPO tagged on the right. Vertical RPOs are typically keyed off the movement of a second-level defender (a "conflict defender"). In this case, the conflict defender is walking down to the line before the ball is snapped, which makes this an easy decision. While vertical RPOs are typically a post-snap read off the movement of the conflict defender, the removal of the conflict defender pre-snap makes this a pre-snap decision for Love: hand off into a 9-man box or throw what should be an open slant. 

Love wisely chooses the slant. The Broncos defend the stack with a staggered approach, with both defenders on Reed’s outside shoulder. Reed’s job on this is basically what Watson’s was on the last play: run a “route,” but basically just wall off the defenders enough for Romeo Doubs to get some space inside. Reed does a great job and Doubs is open.

But there’s the matter of that pesky Jonathon Cooper [0]. He’s looking at Love and sees the quick throw, so he stops to knock it down. Love sees Cooper, pumps to get him out of the way, then adjusts the arm angle to hit Doubs.

Because of all of this, the throw is a little behind Doubs, who turns but is unable to bring it in. Thankfully, Reed is right in the path of the bouncing ball and reacts to it almost as if he were expecting it.

OH MY GOD pic.twitter.com/8gjDESGtfS

— CheeseheadTV 🧀 (@cheeseheadtv) October 22, 2023

One other thing I love on this: the movement of Aaron Jones [33]. Jones knows that, since he didn’t get the ball, the throw is going to a slant on the right. In an attempt to help create as much space as possible, Jones does a little jump-cut to the left to try to move the safety. 

It doesn’t work, but I appreciate the effort.

Not the best game, but even in the darkness, a little light can shine through. This offense feels like it's just a hair away from clicking. I don't know if that's going to happen this season or not, but they're still showing some cool, creative play designs every week, even if the overall execution hasn't been anywhere near where it needs to be. Still, I'm having fun digging in every season, so I hope you are as well.

If you haven't already, check out the video I did with John Kuhn this week. We looked at 4 plays this week, talking about the impact that Aaron Jones can have on the game. I had a blast and learned a ton, so I hope you all like it!

Albums listened to: Hum - Downward is Heavenward; Blink 182 - One More Time; Slothrust - I Promise; The Rolling Stones - Hackney Diamonds; Dhani Harrison - Innerstanding; Squirrel Flower - Tomorrow’s Fire