Which Packers Rookie Will Have the Biggest Impact This Season?

The Green Bay Packers selected 13 players in the 2023 NFL Draft as GM Brian Gutekunst tried to surround new starting quarterback Jordan Love with more talent for his first season as an NFL starter.

Many of these draft picks will get playing time right away as the Packers are now a young team. In fact, there are only four players on the current roster who will be 30 or older when the 2023 NFL season gets underway in September.

But which of these players is the most likely to have the biggest impact this season? This is not about who will be the best player over the long haul but who will play and help the team the most as a rookie.

Here is a look at five top candidates:

5. K Anders Carlson

Maybe it’s cheating to count a kicker on this list but if he wins the kicking job, Carlson could have a big impact on the Packers season.

Winning close games will be important for a young team to learn and if Carlson comes through with some game-winning kicks his impact could be significant.

Special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia is also hoping Carlson can improve the Packers performance on kickoffs and create more touchbacks than the now departed Mason Crosby.

4. TE Tucker Kraft

Kraft is the second tight end the Packers drafted this year, but he and fellow rookie Luke Musgrave will be counted on to contribute right away. The key question may be which of the two learns the playbook and feels comfortable in the offense sooner.

Tight ends usually take a long time to adjust to the NFL as they must learn pass patterns and how to block on running plays. Will Kraft be the faster learner? If he is, he can make significant contributions as a rookie.

3. Edge Lukas Van Ness

Van Ness has looked the part in OTAs and is drawing praise from the coaching staff and teammates for his speed, size, and athleticism. Of course, OTAs are non-contact so there’s only so much we can learn from them.

With Rashan Gary still rehabbing his season-ending knee injury from a year ago, Van Ness has the chance to see more action early in the season and stake a claim to more playing time.

The key for Van Ness will be to develop some additional pass rush moves and to improve his technique. That will be a process, but if he can show enough in training camp and the preseason, Van Ness has a chance to play significant snaps as a rookie.

2.  WR Jayden Reed

The Packers drafted Reed to be their slot receiver and his size and skill set are a good fit at that position. The former Michigan State star is the favorite to start in the slot and that will give him a significant number of snaps as a rookie.

With Christian Watson likely to draw double coverage and Romeo Doubs likely to get plenty of attention from opposing defenses, that could open things up for Reed.

Love is also likely to throw more to the middle of the field than Aaron Rodgers did and LaFleur may run plays to scheme Reed open over the middle as well.

These factors could give Reed more opportunities to catch the football this season.

1. TE Luke Musgrave

Second-round pick Luke Musgrave is the favorite to be the Packers primary pass catching tight end this season and his size and athleticism have been on display thus far at OTAs.

The Oregon State alum has the potential to be the Packers most dangerous downfield receiving threat at tight end since Jermichael Finley’s career was cut short by injury in 2013.

Rookie tight ends don’t often have an immediate impact. Last year, Trey McBride of Arizona was the first tight end selected in the second round and he finished his rookie season with 29 catches for 265 yards and one touchdown catch in 16 games.

In 2021, first round pick Kyle Pitts of the Falcons was an exception to the rule as he caught 68 passes for 1,026 yards and one score and went to the Pro Bowl.

The Packers would be pleased if Musgrave and Kraft combine for the numbers Pitts put up two years ago.

Musgrave is currently the favorite to have the biggest impact among Packers rookies in 2023.  

 

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Comments (41)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
SoCalJim's picture

June 10, 2023 at 12:14 pm

Great article, Gil! I hope they all have a large impact on the 2023 Packers, but if I had to chose just one, I’d pick K Anders Carlson. I expect him to challenge for the team’s points leader this year.

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10ve 💚's picture

June 10, 2023 at 01:20 pm

I hope for a whole lot of kickoffs from Carlson, combined with very few field goals! 😀

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SoCalJim's picture

June 10, 2023 at 08:52 pm

Yes, and a bazillion extra points.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 11, 2023 at 05:05 am

One advantage to the rule change is he shouldn't have to work on the kickoff much and can concentrate on FGs.

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GilMartin's picture

June 11, 2023 at 01:20 pm

Thanks, SoCalJim. Yes, I expect him to have a big impact on the season if he wins the kicking job. I hope he's ready for the wind and cold of Green Bay in the late season. Thanks for the comment.

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Titletown222's picture

June 11, 2023 at 07:45 pm

If he’s the starting kicker, he will undoubtedly be the team points leader.

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splitpea1's picture

June 10, 2023 at 12:26 pm

I really don't know, but I'm rooting for Jayden Reed to have at least a significant impact. In addition to the slot potential, he proved to be an excellent punt returner in college, averaging over 15 yards and scoring 3 TDs. If he could win the job here, it would really be beneficial because it would keep Nixon fresh for kick returns and his defensive assignments.

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jont's picture

June 10, 2023 at 12:44 pm

Definitely the TE. Whichever one emerges during camp is going to play and get targets. 50-60 completions would be a good rookie year and realistic, and 70-80 is possible with this offense which would be top 5 in the NFL.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 11, 2023 at 05:06 am

Even if Musgrave and Kraft split that, I'd be happy with that. Especially if they're effective in the red zone.

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Qoojo's picture

June 10, 2023 at 12:52 pm

I agree picking the K is cheating, but also true. By definition, he will be involved in the more plays which have a pivotal impact on the game (FG/extra point).

- I think Reed will need an injury to one of the starters to get a bigger chance.
- Van Ness might see more playtime earlier because of Gary's injury
- Packers are forced to play 1 or both of the TEs

So opportunity-wise, TEs have the biggest advantage due to at least one of them must play significant amount of plays per game.

If Gary was healthy, Van Ness would probably be used sparingly at beginning like Wyatt, and it could still happen.

It will be difficult for Reed to match the knowledge accumulated by WRs drafted last year. His opportunity might be as a returner. Another factor against him is that MLF might go more 2 TE sets this year.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

June 10, 2023 at 01:12 pm

Hopefully all of them will have positive impacts on the season, but I have a feeling that VanNess is going to make a lot of splash plays.
I like Kraft more than Musgrave, but their impact this year is really hard to predict.
If Carlson wins and keeps the starting kicker job, he is almost certain to have the greatest impact, but that gets an asterisk for this question.
Then what if Love goes out with an injury for a large chunk of the season? Could be Sean Clifford as the answer!

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TKWorldWide's picture

June 11, 2023 at 04:49 pm

Just curious: why Kraft over Musgrave? Durability? Ruggedness? Better combo of block/catch?

PS 👎 if you’re a complete moron

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GregC's picture

June 10, 2023 at 02:48 pm

I wouldn't count the kicker unless he was at least as good as Mason Crosby on FGs and XPs and significantly better on kickoffs. Crosby had a good year with FGs and XPs last year, so I would not bet on Anders Carlson equalling or bettering that.

I agree that Musgrave is the rookie who is most likely to have a big impact, and I would go with Lukas Van Ness after him. I think Van Ness will get plenty of playing time, as he should be #3 in the OLB rotation by the time Rashan Gary comes back.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 10, 2023 at 05:22 pm

Hopefully Musgrave or Kraft. No other rookie should even be starting.

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Leatherhead's picture

June 10, 2023 at 06:05 pm

Musgrave and Reed are logical candidates, but Van Ness will get plenty of opportunities to stop a drive with a pressure or sack, or by drawing a holding penalty.

There's 100 targets available for the TE unit, and Musgrave might get 50 of them or more.. Reed is going to have to take what's left after Watson and Doubs take most of the WR targets. Van Ness is going to be in a position to stop drives, and that's a lot bigger than catching a first down pass.

The kicker is going to score the most points, but really, you should divide that by 3 and share those points with the long snapper and holder. Also, he's only going to be on the field for maybe 10 plays.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 11, 2023 at 05:13 am

I notice everybody's leaving Simore Torre (sp?) out of the equation. Depth at WR is a good problem to have! He might emerge as #3 WR

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LLCHESTY's picture

June 11, 2023 at 03:13 pm

Maybe because he's not a rookie?

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Tundraboy's picture

June 10, 2023 at 08:51 pm

"The Packers would be pleased if Musgrave and Kraft combine for the numbers Pitts put up two years ago."

That's for sure! You betcha!

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Oppy's picture

June 10, 2023 at 09:07 pm

Barth "Big Bat Stinkeye" McDavendilly. UDFA.

Barth somehow manages to walk on in the midst of camp without detection. Goes on to stun the Packers coaching staff with his amazing place holding skills and uncanny ability to clear the locker room.

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TKWorldWide's picture

June 11, 2023 at 04:51 pm

LOL!
But looks like we’ve got a gloomy Gus checking in.

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Bure9620's picture

June 10, 2023 at 09:13 pm

Musgrave, primarily out of necessity. I realize TE is one if the biggest transitions to the NFL but with his speed he can create issues for defenses. MLF's offense is most effective when he can attacked the seam. Musgrave can stretch defenses in the middle of the field so he can affect the game even If not being thrown to.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 11, 2023 at 05:18 am

Yup, this is why I'm thinking of Musgrave more as a big bodied WR. Not a YAC guy, tends to fold at first contact. I don't expect him to replace Big Dog on blocking, but that means they can use him to just learn routes and he might be effective early in the season. I'd be ok if he effectively becomes the WR #3 in the slot. Really it comes down to if he can get open.

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Fubared's picture

June 10, 2023 at 09:20 pm

None of these guys had big time careers in college. I see average contributions. Can't expect peo bowl level play from non stars.

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Tex49's picture

June 10, 2023 at 10:09 pm

Yeah that Clay Matthews guy was a wasted pick because he was a backup at USC

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 11, 2023 at 05:20 am

Average contributions are ok, as long as they're not turning it over. Hopefully fewer dropped passes than last season.

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Since'75's picture

June 11, 2023 at 03:00 pm

Rookie contributions are more the anomaly than the norm, not everyone is, Jaire Alexander, Justin Jefferson or Justin Herbert.

All you should expect from rookies are flashes during their rookie campaigns, anything more than that is a sweet bonus, and a hope that you found a game changer or impact player.

Good teams don't rely on their rookie draft picks for success. But this has been the case lately with the Packers in some segments of the team.

We used to draft and develop under Thompson in his prime. Anything the rookies gave us was a bonus.

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Since'75's picture

June 11, 2023 at 03:00 pm

Rookie contributions are more the anomaly than the norm, not everyone is, Jaire Alexander, Justin Jefferson or Justin Herbert.

All you should expect from rookies are flashes during their rookie campaigns, anything more than that is a sweet bonus, and a hope that you found a game changer or impact player.

Good teams don't rely on their rookie draft picks for success. But this has been the case lately with the Packers in some segments of the team.

We used to draft and develop under Thompson in his prime. Anything the rookies gave us was a bonus.

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Since'75's picture

June 10, 2023 at 10:36 pm

"Which Packer rookies will have the biggest impact this season?"
I guess the Title of the article could have been "Which veteran receivers or tight end will be the most help to Love?"
But we don't have any veteran wr's or tight ends to help him.
Even if you weren't thrilled with the trading up for Love back in 2020, you can't help but feel for the kid starting his 1st season having to help rookies find there way, when he's still trying to find his own way..
At least when Rodgers started in 208, he had some proven talent to work with.

Therein lies the problem.
The same problem as last season.
Relying on rookie draft picks to catch passes.
That is not a recipe for a winning team offensively, not for a HOF QB, or a 1st year starter.

This is what happens when you let the receiving talent run down to ground zero.
That has happened to both groups, wr and tight ends.
Hence the plethora of drafting pass catchers last season and this season.
But God forbid we say anything about Gute(y).
Because then....we aren't 'Carrying The G'.

So here we are again, so much so that is is in article form.

Championship teams don't rely on rookie draft picks.

Gute was just asked about team goals by a reporter.
He answered it by saying the goal is the same every year.
So is he implying the goal this season is the Super Bowl?
Isn't that what it's been the last 30 years?

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 11, 2023 at 05:28 am

I'd be happy with 6 wins to match AR12's first year as starter. I don't know how much dead cap space is already set in stone for 2025, but that's the first chance for a SB.

I want to see 100% effort out of every player, every down, all season long. I'd call that a HUGE win, as I didn't see that at all last season. The second Vikings game, maybe. This is a culture / team personality thing; if they can get that part right this may develop into the core of a dominant team for a decade. QB & K longer than that.

SO much is riding on this off-season, and the entire coaching staff developing everybody.

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Bure9620's picture

June 11, 2023 at 06:16 am

His two main targets at WR are second year players. Jones and Dillon are going to be involved in the passing game at well as far as touches. Watson is going to be 1a or 1b on most plays. As far as target distribution:

1) Jones
2) Watson
3) Dillon
4) Doubs
5) Deguara/Kraft/Musgrave/Reed Combo

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Since'75's picture

June 11, 2023 at 02:39 pm

It's amazing how some fans can't be critical about the Packers.
It's not being negative, it's being real with some critical thinking, it's reality.

I post about the weak pass catchers and how Gute didn't sustain the talent level there, and i get 4 thumbs down....lol
I must not be Carrying The G!!...therefore i'm not a good fan!! 😮
I love you guys!!

Why don't i become a 'good Packer fan', Carry The G, and never say anything critical about the Packers....starting now!!

I'm really thirsty all of a sudden.
Bure, Sic.... Can you pass the Kool Aid please?

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Bure9620's picture

June 11, 2023 at 04:45 pm

Well the rookies will not be the main targets. Watson, Doubs, Jones and Dillon are all experienced. You said rookies.

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Since'75's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:04 am

Yes, Watson and Doubs are one notch above rookies.
You got me there Bure.

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LLCHESTY's picture

June 11, 2023 at 03:23 pm

So you're shocked by a political response by Gutey? What do you expect him to say, "I hope Jordan Love is good enough to save my job" or something of that sort?

Mistakes were made but now they have added 6 draftees to the WR and Melton in two years. Now is the time to let them compete and hopefully it's a pretty settled position going into next year. If not adjust and add more WRs specific to the needs.

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Since'75's picture

June 20, 2023 at 02:18 am

What do i expect him to say....idk, how about something realistic?

How about that we have a new QB who is learning, a lot of young new players learning and that we're hoping to still make a run at getting in the playoffs.

In everyone's mind, they/we are wondering if this team is capable of making the playoffs, because most of us live in reality.

The goal.........is making the playoffs, and the smart money won't bet on it.

Forget about the last 30 years, it's over, it's a new day in Green Bay.

Lets see what happens.

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Reghamster's picture

June 11, 2023 at 03:30 am

I may be the only cheeshead on here who feels like the goal every year is not the Superbowl. Rather it is A win the division first . B failing that make the playoffs as a wild card. C succeeding in either of those to make the NFC Championship and finally D make the Super bowl and one hopes to win. The point is to having a winning season year in and year out. MLF has done that up until last year. What will happen this year is similar to when Rodgers and Farvre started for their first year. How will Love do ? If we do as well or better it will be a good start. It is a rebuild to the degree that we have a rookie quarterback even if he has been learning from the bench . The rookie with the largest impact will be .... Jordan Love.

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BuckyBadger's picture

June 11, 2023 at 09:12 am

TE rarely come in their rookie year and become game changers. Musgrave missed most of last year, I wouldn't expect him to come in and do much as a rookie. Just isn't that realistic. Probably be 3 years before we know what we have in either TE.

The only rookie I think will do much is the kicker and his stats in college are a little worrisome.

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croatpackfan's picture

June 11, 2023 at 10:30 am

Lets be overly oprimistic!

LVN, Musgrave, Reed, Tucker, Wooden, Brooks, Carlson, Wicks, Valentaine, Johnson, DuBose, Nichols + Cox will pleasently surprised and all of them will have strong positive impact if and when their name will be called.

More realistic approach will be to expect some good plays from several of them when they will contribute in the games. My bet is on Reed and Wooden.

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greengold's picture

June 11, 2023 at 05:14 pm

Karl Brooks. With all the edge talent funneling everything inside? The NFL record for TFL in a season is 39, by JJ Watt in 2012.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

June 12, 2023 at 05:48 am

Interesting dark horse choice GG!
If we’re lucky, Brooks will have a Mike Daniels type of career.
I like that he plays smart and with high effort.
You’re probably right in thinking he’ll be good at cleaning up on plays.

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Fubared's picture

June 15, 2023 at 03:02 pm

Gary will have a huge impact. Hasnt practiced and says he will decide when he is healthy so expect him to be over weight, out of shape and a non factor this year. I've always had him doing a Perry from day one and will not sign a new contract but rather bolt in free agency for da moooooney.

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