Why Jaire Alexander Has Trade Value
It would be very surprising if the Packers do not get something in return for Alexander.
By markoldacres
Since the rumblings began that Jaire Alexander could be on his way out of Green Bay, starting with his unusual comments (although maybe not by his standards) on locker clean out day, Packers fans have been repeatedly told why the two-time All-Pro does not have much, if any, trade value.
But there are also plenty of reasons why he does.
If Alexander was cut ahead of free agency, he would instantly be the best cornerback on the market. There has been a lot of talk about his contract, and why that might be prohibitive, but it is really not that bad.
An acquiring team would owe Alexander just over $16m this year and $18m next year, and none of it would be guaranteed. Ian Rapoport, when reporting that the Packers had held conversations with other teams about Alexander, called his contract “very tradable”.
It is a weak free agent class overall and is not especially strong at the cornerback position either. The salary cap just ballooned again.
DJ Reed, Charvarius Ward, Byron Murphy, Carlton Davis and Asante Samuel Jr are projected to get paid between $14m and $18m a year according to PFF. Some of those deals will come with large signing bonuses and guarantees.
Alexander’s average PFF grade throughout his career is 77.1. Reed’s is 73.8, Ward’s is 70.3, Davis’ is 67.4, Samuel’s is 65.6, and Murphy’s is 61.65. He was also the highest-graded corner out of all of them last year, in what for him was a down year.
Given the money that is about to be handed out to the players listed above, are you telling me a team would not take on $37m non-guaranteed over two years for a player who is better than all of them?
The 28-year-old was ranked as the 10th best corner in coverage in the NFL last year, only eight NFL teams had a corner with a better coverage grade. Alexander would immediately be the best cornerback on the majority of teams in the league if he was traded.
Even if his slated salary is higher than teams would like, there is so much cap space across the league that teams are not going to be able to sign enough good players to spend it on.
Teams with cap space to burn are not going to quibble over what may or may not be a slight overpay, especially when they can get out of the deal at any time with no dead cap hit.
There is a notion that a team acquiring Alexander would have to negotiate a new contract with him, but that seems to be confusing this situation for one where the reason a player is available is because he wants a new deal and his current team does not want to pay him.
As far as we know, that is not the case here. If Alexander ends up signing a new contract after a trade, that deal is likely to be more palatable for the team, not less. It could lower his cap hit over the two seasons and give him more guaranteed money, for example.
But even if Alexander refuses to renegotiate because he prefers his current deal, as previously mentioned, his contract is not that bad as it is.
Another factor going in Green Bay’s favor is that this deal essentially has no deadline.
The Packers do not have to cut Alexander essentially at any point. They do not need the cap space they would save by releasing him, and his contract has no roster bonus which could otherwise have forced them to make a decision before it kicked in.
It has not been reported that Alexander has requested a trade, so there is no pressure being put on the team from his end. The only potential self-imposed deadline could be training camp, if the Packers decide they do not want to deal with the situation anymore at that point.
Green Bay holds all the cards here, and as free agency begins and players go off the board, teams who need a corner and are left on the outside looking in could get desperate and be willing to talk.
General manager Brian Gutekunst has also done an excellent job over the years of getting something for a player, even when they had done nothing in the league.
Since he took over in 2018, he has picked up draft compensation for Rasul Douglas, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Brett Hundley, Trevor Davis, Reggie Gilbert, Ty Montgomery, Justin McCray, Cole Van Lanen, Ka’Dar Hollman and Preston Smith.
He also squeezed everything he could out of the Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers trades, even though it was clear neither of them was ever playing for the Packers again. With the Rodgers deal in particular, he picked up significantly more capital than many thought possible.
There is a recent trade which Gutekunst could use as an aiming point in negotiations, which is the Marshon Lattimore deal. He was traded to the Commanders at the deadline last year along with a fifth-round pick for a third, a fourth and a sixth-round pick.
He is not as good a player as Alexander, his average career PFF grade is 69.3, he is a touch older, and has similarly had injury issues, playing on average one game a year more than Alexander.
In fact, Lattimore was injured at the time he was traded, missing the first six games of his Washington tenure, finally making his debut in week 15.
The contract being taken on is essentially identical, although Lattimore had two-and-a-half years left on his deal at the time of the trade, more than Alexander’s two, but as mentioned, Lattimore then missed most of the second half of the season anyway.
It is not expected that Alexander will yield as much of a return as Lattimore did in that trade, but it could give Gutekunst somewhere to start the negotiations.
A logical case can certainly be made as to why in a vacuum, a general manager of an unnamed team would not want to give up draft capital for Alexander, but these decisions are not made in a vacuum.
People are trying to save their jobs or take risks to push their team over the top, it just takes one, and Gutekunst has shown if there is one, he will get something from them.
Someone will want Jaire Alexander on their team and be willing to give something up to get him, knowing the Packers do not have to release him at all.
It might not be a big haul. The ceiling is probably a third-round pick, potentially giving a day three pick back, like they did when trading Rasul Douglas, but it would be pretty surprising if none of the other 31 teams are willing to give up something for Alexander, and Green Bay simply cuts him loose.
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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
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Comments (46)
T7Steve
March 03, 2025 at 07:01 am
Once these things are being talked about, especially if the team mentions it, there's no way I can see him in the locker room anymore. If the team hadn't been shopping him around, he might have brought a bunch more at the trade deadline from a team in the hunt if he stayed healthy. If he was actually healthy, why would it even come up? Now, he'd just be a cancer in the locker room, if he wasn't already.
TKWorldWide
March 03, 2025 at 07:02 am
He’s a boom or bust prospect, with a contract that minimizes the risk of bust.
GregC
March 03, 2025 at 07:04 am
Technically the Packers don't have to release Alexander, but it's hard to see them moving forward with him after all this. Everybody knows that. Maybe they could get a fifth round pick, like the 49ers did for Deboo Samuel. They probably have to find a team that is willing to take on his contract, because I doubt that he would take a pay cut as part of the deal. It would be better for him to wait until he gets cut so he could be a free agent and have some choice in where he goes.
murf7777
March 03, 2025 at 10:51 am
The difference here is Debo's production is of a low 2 - high 3 WR. Where Alexander is a high profile #1, shutdown corner when healthy. I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a mid to high 2nd rounder. I also don't think the Packers would cut him. Players have said he's a great locker room guy as well. Did the Packers come out and say they won't keep him? I doubt it cuz they would be laying out their cards for everyone to see.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 03, 2025 at 07:07 am
The Packers do not have to off-load Alexander in order to get under the salary cap. They can wait until September if they want, since that suits them almost as well as releasing him now. They can wait and if no one coughs up a pick for Alexander, they can cut him on August 30 and get $6.83M in cap savings, which will pay for their PS and 52nd and 53rd contracts. Indeed, since it would be a post june cut, the Packers would get $17.09M.
In reality, Alexander will earn $16.1M in base salary and if he deigns to show up for workouts, $700K more. Then he has $650K in game active bonuses, but with his injury history, who know how much of that he will earn. His base salary increases by $2M in 2026. I usually count it as $17.5M and $19.5M, none guaranteed, but one can argue for $16M and $18M.
I think the Packers might get a day three pick. Gute has done well - better than I had anticipated - in the past.
dobber
March 03, 2025 at 07:16 am
TGR is back!
Agree with you on virtually all counts.
They can keep JA in their back pocket and see how the off-season unfolds.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 03, 2025 at 07:25 am
Thanks. I have a salary cap article scheduled for late tonight, 1900 hours. The only reason to do something with Alexander would be to make a big move - or two.
Guam
March 03, 2025 at 07:50 am
I have been waiting for that article TGR! Your stuff is always incredibly informative and helpful for me to understand the Packer options in free agency. Looking forward to reading it!
RCPackerFan
March 03, 2025 at 08:14 am
"They can wait until September if they want, since that suits them almost as well as releasing him now. They can wait and if no one coughs up a pick for Alexander, they can cut him on August 30 and get $6.83M in cap savings"
This is a key part of the conversation. There is not major cap hit or anything where they have to trade him by March 20th or whatever the date would be. The first big trade deadline is the draft. After that, then they can wait till August, which if a team has an injury at CB they could trade for him then.
But the other part of that is, they can trade for next years draft which could be done more conditionally. The better Alexander does the higher the draft pick.
Guam
March 03, 2025 at 08:06 am
Veterans with big contracts who are being moved from their current team (usually for a reason) are not commanding big paydays for their current teams. The loss of cap space for the acquiring team as well as some uncertainty about the player (why are they being moved?) creates a lot of downward pressure on the trade price. The Packers will get a little something for Alexander and I think the author is right that it will be in the 3rd to 5th round range. Seattle is not getting a first, a fourth and a player for Metcalf.
The interesting question for me is Myles Garrett's situation. He is a vet with a big contract and wants out of Cleveland (understandably). I think Cleveland will try to keep him and pay him the $18MM he is due in March. The real crunch will come at training camp. If Garrett is serious about wanting out he will no-show training camp. If that happens, Cleveland may have to trade him and likely get much less than they are hoping for. I hope Gute keeps a little powder dry. Garrett could be a Reggie White level addition.
RCPackerFan
March 03, 2025 at 08:11 am
"It might not be a big haul. The ceiling is probably a third-round pick, potentially giving a day three pick back, like they did when trading Rasul Douglas, but it would be pretty surprising if none of the other 31 teams are willing to give up something for Alexander, and Green Bay simply cuts him loose."
This is exactly what I have been saying. Ceiling is likely a 3rd round pick. Most likely option would be a 4-5th round pick. Could get as low as a 6th.
I could see more then few teams being interested in him. He is a former All Pro CB. When he is on the field he is a difference maker. For that alone he is worth a 3rd round pick. Now the injuries clearly are a big part of this. And that could push his market down. And if teams know GB wants to trade him, then that likely means they will settle for less. Which is why I think they are looking at maybe a mid/late round pick, and potentially another conditional pick next year.
A few teams that I could see being interested are the Jets, Ravens and Broncos. Jets may lose Reed. They have a former DB as a HC, and a guy who has had to face Alexander. Ravens seem like a natural fit. They are always a defensive minded team. Also Lamar Is one of Alexanders friends. They would put Alexander in with Murphey and Wiggins. Broncos lost to the Bills by giving up 31 points. They could pair Alexander with Surtain.
I have seen a lot of people say, why would a team trade for a player that will likely get released. Well part of that is because that is a way a team can guarantee to get the player. If the player is released they can sign with 30 other teams. That is worth at least a mid round pick for a lot of teams.
BuckyBadger
March 03, 2025 at 08:32 am
If you look through things with Green and Gold shades, sure you can make a case that Alexander has value. Especially if you think the Aaron Rodgers trade squeezed everything he possibly could, I disagree there big time as he was traded a year too late when Denver was giving up the farm for Russell Wilson.
If the Packers don't want them why would another team give up capital to get him? In the last 4 years he was healthy once only playing in 34 of the 66 regular season games. No one needs to take on a contract for a player who doesn't stay on the field. Doesn't matter how good you are if you aren't able to get on the field to play.
You aren't getting 3rd rounder for player that isn't giving you value. You can dream all you want but the reality is when you don't want a player anymore you aren't going to get a good pick in return. Might get a late rounder if a team has a coach that has worked with him before but even then why not wait until he gets cut? No one is going to be that desperate to get the services of a guy who only play 7 games a year.
GregC
March 03, 2025 at 08:41 am
What he meant about Rodgers was that Gute got all he could for him once they decided to trade him. Of course they could've gotten more had they decided to trade him a year or two earlier. But they didn't want to trade him then. I thought they should have, but I acknowledge that it is not an easy decision to trade your franchise QB when he is playing at an MVP level and your championship window is open.
BuckyBadger
March 03, 2025 at 11:35 am
That whole situation went down poorly and Gute has to take a lot of the blame. He extended Rodgers before he had to and was late moving on from him. In the end all they really got was a 2nd round pick for him. He should held firm on getting at least a 1st without any stipulations and he could have gotten it.
Gute is too quick to hand out big extensions. It burnt the team with Rodgers and Alexander. Gary isn't worth his big deal. If you continue to pay B+ talent like they are A+ your team will never compete with the best.
T7Steve
March 03, 2025 at 12:33 pm
As far as I know, Ball does the contracts under Murphy. I do hope Gute and all the coaches have input, but I don't think they had any say in that extension.
dobber
March 03, 2025 at 02:20 pm
I'm sure Ball doesn't do contracts in a vacuum. Gute has control over the roster and essentially distribution of the cap, and he needs to select players that fit with the coaches. Ball handles the negotiations, but he's not just signing guys under his own discretion...that would mean he's really controlling roster construction, right? All that stuff argues that the heads of the three silos need to be communicating regularly.
T7Steve
March 04, 2025 at 05:59 am
I had the feeling that Murphy stepped in and decided on the Rodgers extension, probably because everyone had differing opinions on what to do.
Would someday like to find out what really was going through MLF's and Gutes heads at the time. Had the feeling Matt was looking forward to moving on and Gute didn't want to cripple the team with the cap. That may just be wishful thinking on my part, though.
Since'61
March 03, 2025 at 08:36 am
Given the points made in the article, specifically that JA is still one of the top CBs in the league, that he hasn't asked for a trade, that the Packers would get a mid round draft pick in return and that his salary cap hit is not that significant I would retain him with the Packers. Why lose a solid veteran player who is a difference maker when he is healthy?
I realize that he has an injury history but isn't every player at risk of being injured in the NFL? I'd rather have a premier player at a critical position than a mid-round pick who may never amount to anything. Keep Alexander, keep the team together and use the draft to fill in other positions of need and to build depth.
The same for Free Agency. Thanks, Since '61
Bitternotsour
March 03, 2025 at 08:46 am
exactly. why wouldn't you monitor his fitness and then try to work thru any personal issues that exist and (if healthy) add back a top five cornerback. ever been mad at your employer before? ever gotten over it and gone back to work? everyone is acting like he's some big malcontent when it simply isn't true. Ja is not Javon Walker, he hasn't requested a trade, all he's really done is be injured. j
Leatherhead
March 03, 2025 at 08:47 am
Since61, you refer to Alexander as one of the top CBs in the league, and that he's a premium player.
I think that's completely accurate....4 years ago. Four years ago, he was coming off a Pro Bowl season at age 23.
And he had a good season in 2022 at age 25. It's the only good season he's had out of the last 4. He's been our #3 or #4 CB in terms of tackles and snaps.
We have Nixon and Valentine at one corner, and if we could get even an AVERAGE guy who was actually on the field helping us, it would improve the defense.
Alexander is not a top cover CB in this league. If he could stay healthy and play an entire season and play well, that would be different, but I wouldn't bet $17M on hit.
Since'61
March 03, 2025 at 11:18 am
LH - I agree that Alexander has missed significant parts of the last 2 seasons. However I would still prefer to keep him on team and hopefully he remains healthy. Previous injuries do not necessarily mean that he will be injured in the upcoming season.
A healthy Alexander improves our defense with the need to sign a FA or use an early round draft pick on a CB.
For me the best option for the Packers is to bring JA, monitor his health during TC and the preseason. Then back him up with an average guy if he is injured again.
As I understand the previous comments his 2025 contract is not guaranteed so I don't see risk in the cap hit. Regardless of the cap I would have better players on the field than average guys because even the average guy is as much at risk for injury as the better player.
Of course Gute may be able to pull off a trade, probably for mid/late round picks. But is the goal to remain the youngest team in the league every year or to field the best possible team and win a Super Bowl?
Thanks, Since '61
Leatherhead
March 03, 2025 at 11:37 am
You're a lot more willing to gamble $17M on his availability than I am.
murf7777
March 03, 2025 at 01:12 pm
LH, that's why they call it gambling:)
murf7777
March 03, 2025 at 10:58 am
We are in the minority, but I agree. People say he's a locker room problem...when actually the players love him. Most CB's have their way about them and are somewhat prima donna's if they are a star. If the price isn't right keep him!
BuckyBadger
March 03, 2025 at 11:51 am
Yes every player is at risk of getting hurt but that risk is different for every player. Some players are durable and have the frame to hold up against the punishment the game brings. Alexander has a far greater risk since he has shown an inability to stay healthy year after year. Nothing is worse than a star player who can't get on the field. When they are hurt it is like losing half your depth chart because he takes up so much of the salary cap. They could pay 3 B level CBs for what they pay Alexander and have a deeper team. This is why Belichick for years would let these high priced players walk. They aren't worth the price tag and many times start to break down. How many all pro CBs did he let walk only to see his team keep winning?
murf7777
March 03, 2025 at 12:16 pm
The difference is we don't have a mastermind coach like Belichick was. Belichick could take B players, put them into his system and make them into an A player. He was the best at creating an awesome defense year in and year out......there's only one of him.
Leatherhead
March 03, 2025 at 12:53 pm
Was Belichick a mastermind coach, or was it Tom Brady?
Brady won without Belichick; Bellichick had a losing record without Brady.
dobber
March 03, 2025 at 01:45 pm
I think it was the Patriots' aura, after a while. Players wanted to be part of it.
That said, I think BB had a different perspective than most GMs as someone on the field who was scheming how to beat individuals on a weekly basis. He knew what players he admired and which he wanted.
greengold
March 03, 2025 at 01:57 pm
Well, holy crap... the guy was the GM/HC/DC. He could take exactly who he wanted, trade for exactly who he wanted, at any time, any day he wanted, throughout his SIX Lombardi Trophies winning career in NE.
This really does point perfectly to what ails the Green Bay Packers: a complete and total disconnect between "ownership," the "GM," and the HC.
Sadly, quote marks were necessary for those first two. Mark Murphy can kiss my ass. Can't stand the guy. How in the world does one screw up a perfectly good system established by Bob Harlan for an NFL team?
Mark Murphy.
murf7777
March 03, 2025 at 02:54 pm
That's the great debate. I'd say they needed each other. Belichick, consistently had a Top 5 defense year in and year out. There's not another Coach who did that over a long period of time.
packanimal
March 03, 2025 at 02:06 pm
There seem to be 2 aspects to the JA problem -- his body and his head. I don't know what to guess about his head -- how he is with Hafley's system, etc?
Here's the generic Google AI response I got on his knee problem: The probability of a PCL (posterior cruciate ligament) injury recurring is considered relatively low, but can depend on factors like the severity of the initial injury, treatment method, and the individual's activity level; however, some studies suggest a higher recurrence rate, particularly in high-impact sports, where re-injury can occur even after surgery, with estimates of recurrence ranging from a small fraction of a percent to several percent depending on the specific case.
But of course, if the Packers are simply sick of his behavior and determined to let him go, none of the above matters so much.
MainePackFan
March 03, 2025 at 06:21 pm
After reading through a bunch of posts, when I saw yours, I had to sign in just to give you a thumbs up Since'61. Still the voice of reason. Thank you!!!!
Leatherhead
March 03, 2025 at 08:40 am
I don't really understand all the minutiae about cutting him on Aug 31, or June 1, or any other day. I do understand the Packers don't want him on the team anymore, and that he's not going to be on the team this year.
Early on, I used Rasul Douglas as the standard. If we were able to get a late Day 2 pick for him, then Alexander has to be worth something similar. I know he has a big contract to assume, but I also know that contracts can be reworked.
BuckyBadger
March 03, 2025 at 11:46 am
Alexander isn't going to rework a contract and get less money that what he is guaranteed to paid now. He would much rather get cut, get whatever guaranteed money that was on the deal and hit free agency. Alexander and his agent have no reason to play nice here. Their best option is to hit free agency to try to drum up interest between multiple teams and will do everything they can to get there.
Players who get traded and rework a deal are usually coming off great seasons or are an established star who can negotiate a better deal. Alexander won't get a better deal so the incentive to rework his contract isn't there.
dobber
March 03, 2025 at 02:03 pm
He's not guaranteed much of anything now.
His guarantees all paid out two years ago--he's trying to preserve his cash value now. That's about $16.1M...he can also earn game and workout bonuses that--if he played under his current deal--could add about $4M to his pay out.
Maybe he sees value in trying to drum up a new deal on the open market with a fresh bolus of guaranteed money, but the same things that limit his ability to earn his cash in GB are going to limit his ability to garner a lucrative contract with hefty bonus money on the open market: availability. It seems unlikely he's going to get a long-term deal with much guaranteed money until he shows he can earn it.
So his camp has to be looking at his earning power and asking: what am I likely to get on the open market and what are the Packers up to pay me? My guess is that he's very unlikely with his availability record to get a one-year $20M deal (which is what his GB contract is worth if he plays most of the games and satisfies the bonuses) or a two-year $30+M deal with a nice chunk of guarantees.
IF the Packers want him back, it's likely that he can still come out ahead if he takes a couple million dollar pay cut with the Packers and shows he can stay healthy. IF he does so, and with his 2026 contract he's unlikely to be back after 2025, he should have more value next off-season to a team trading for him or on the open market.
LambeauPlain
March 03, 2025 at 09:30 am
The only correct price is where the buyer and seller agree. And the side that most often wins in negotiations is one with the most information and the most time.
The Packers attempting to trade Alexander provides even more information and they have plenty of time to get it. They are finding out what his value is as a part time player.
Armed with this information, they can present a logical proposal for a renegotiated, incentive laden deal that would pay him even more $ IF HE PLAYS.
Win/Win...unless, as I suspect, Alexander would prefer to clip the coupons of his current deal. And that too is valuable information!
Then the Packers can, if they want, play the waiting game. Use the draft and FA pools to fortify CB as they will be doing regardless of what Alexander and his agent "want".
Once the draft and FA CB pools dry up, time gets even shorter for CB needy teams...and for Alexander. What will his future compensation be in late Summer vs this Spring if the Packers don't trade and delay cutting him loose? If his primary motivation is playing for money vs a Championship...his payday will become much reduced as the months fly by.
Packers are driving this bus.
dobber
March 03, 2025 at 02:18 pm
"Packers are driving this bus."
Exactly. He has a lot to lose.
Alberta_Packer
March 03, 2025 at 03:17 pm
The ideal scenario for Jaire is for the Packers to just release him - so he can shop his services to any team of his choosing. However the most likely scenario is that the Packers will attempt to extrapolate some value from him - whether it be via a re-structured contract or a trade. What does not favor Jaire is that Gutekunst is neither an impulsive nor impatient GM.
Alberta_Packer
March 03, 2025 at 11:27 am
I think that the Jaire conundrum is more than his persistent lack of availability. It's also his antics and lack of emotional maturity. It seems, at times, that Jaire never left High School. Still he has salvage value - whether it be with the Packers or another team. If the Packers - I'm quite certain that his contract would be re-structured to reflect his current value. In other words, a very team-friendly agreement. I'm also quite certain that Alexander and his agent would reject any such offer. Thus leaving a trade to another Team. If possible - Alexander could very well fetch a Day3 / mid-round pick. This would be not nothing. In this year's Draft - it appears that the mid-rounds are well-stocked with good players and potential starters.
Lphill
March 03, 2025 at 11:38 am
I would keep him , restructure his contract.
BuckyBadger
March 03, 2025 at 11:51 am
Alexander and his agent aren't going to give money back. Why would they?
murf7777
March 03, 2025 at 03:18 pm
Possibly because he has no guaranteed money left and he will be hard pressed to find a team who will give him 17M per for 1/2 year of production due to his last 3 years of injury history.
stockholder
March 03, 2025 at 12:06 pm
If you don't get it.
Why do it!
We're going to spend money anyway.
It's what Gute does.
So spend away - Then trade away.
Or didn't the Douglass trade- teach you anything?
MitchAnthony
March 03, 2025 at 02:31 pm
What if this relationship never existed. What if Alexander was never a first round pick of the Packers. Now what if there was another player exactly like him out there and the Packers needed a player at that position.
Would anyone be saying that BG should go out and spend $17 million/year in free agency to go get that once great cornerback who has only played in 50% of his games over the last several years because of a significant injury history and lack of availability? Would anyone consider that to be FA money well spent? Really?
murf7777
March 03, 2025 at 03:02 pm
If I understand the salary cap correctly, the difference is that it only costs us 6M to keep him. I believe there is 25M in SC hit and 19M in dead cap. The 17M isn't SC, but cash to be paid to him.
gsd3
March 03, 2025 at 02:58 pm
If they get anything it will be on day 3 if the draft. Only a team that lost out in free agency and came up dry the first 2 days of the draft will consider it.
Why give up draft capital and take on a big contract for a very talented but often unavailable player?
Sit back and wait for his release and likely get him for less and give up nothing to do so would be a better option.