Will Packers Defensive End Lukas Van Ness Take Third-Year Jump?

Packers Defensive End Lukas Van Ness (90) looks to make the third-year jump like teammate Rashan Gary (52) did in 2021.

When the Green Bay Packers selected Lukas Van Ness with the 13th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, they planned on drafting one of their starting defensive ends for years to come. The easy comparison was with another Packer who was drafted almost in the exact same spot, four years earlier.

That player is Rashan Gary, who was drafted 12th overall in 2019, but it wasn’t 2021, his third season where he solidified himself as a starting edge rusher, with a career-high 9.5 sacks.

 

 

As Van Ness enters his third season, there have been signs in training camp that maybe he’s finally able to contribute as a starting defensive end for the Packers defense.

Van Ness enters his 3rd season at age 24 and has seven career sacks (4 in 2023, 3 in 2024), which is identical to Gary as he entered his third season at the same age and had the same amount of sacks after two seasons (2 in 2019, 5 in 2020).

 

 

When Brian Gutekunst drafted both Gary and Van Ness, he drafted for the long-term payoff in two young, but talented pass rushers. Gary played three seasons at Michigan, totaling just 10.5 sacks over three seasons. Van Ness played just two seasons at Iowa, never starting a game, finishing with 13 sacks.

So far in training camp, there are positive signs that Van Ness could be trending upward as a player who could be finally reaching his potential.

Dating back to when Ron Wolf became the Packers General Manager in 1992, Van Ness was the 11th first round pick who was an edge rusher, defensive end or defensive tackle.

Year Player Position School

Games started

(thru 3 seasons)

Sacks

(thru 3 seasons)

1998 Vonnie Holliday DE North Carolina 37 19
2001 Jamal Reynolds Edge Florida State 0 3
2007 Justin Harrell DT Tennessee 2 0
2009 B.J. Raji NT Boston College 33 10.5
2009 Clay Matthews Edge USC 43 29.5
2012 Nick Perry Edge USC 15 9
2013 Datone Jones DE UCLA 3 8
2016 Kenny Clark DT UCLA 30 10.5
2019 Rashan Gary Edge Michigan 20 16.5
2022 Devonte Wyatt DT Georgia 5 12
2023 Lukas Van Ness Edge Iowa 0* 7*

* Van Ness' numbers thru 2 seasons

 

Based on the previous 11 players, there are several groups of players. Vonnie Holliday, B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews all showed promise right away. Holliday started from the get-go forming a terrific foursome in 1998 with Reggie White, Santana Dotson and Gilbert Brown.

The two 2009 first round picks, Matthews and Raji were both pro bowlers by the end of their 3rd seasons. Matthews was the defensive player of the year runner-up in his second season with his career high of 13.5 sacks. They were two of the key pieces to the Super-Bowl winning defense in 2010.

The next group is where the hope Van Ness falls into. He’s in a spot where he could blossom in his third year like teammates Gary and Kenny Clark both did.

The hope if you’re a Packers fan is he does not fall into a group which is a player who never became a full-time player and/or was just a flat-out first round bust like Jamal Reynolds, Justin Harrell and Datone Jones.

 

 

The next month will likely be very important for seeing the progress of Van Ness. Will he continue to have a good training camp and secure a starting defensive end position for Week 1 against the Detroit Lions?

Or will he continue to have his struggles and allow Kingsley Enagbare or Brenton Cox, Jr. to take that starting spot opposite Rashan Gary?

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Mitch McLaughlin is a Packers fan and shareholder residing in Sacramento, California. He will be writing Packers stories each week on Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter: @McLaughlinMitch

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Comments (20)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NJ-RICK's picture

August 05, 2025 at 06:56 pm

LVN has no where to go but up... Another questionable 1st round pick by a mediocre GM. If there is a chance to obtain M Parsons do it. Hope for the best but I feel LVN is another D Lowry....GPG

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

August 06, 2025 at 08:34 am

A mediocre GM? Hes one of the 5 best GM's in football. And comparing LVN to Lowry? Casual talk.

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pantz_bURp's picture

August 05, 2025 at 08:31 pm

Yes.

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KenEllis's picture

August 05, 2025 at 09:06 pm

I would think that in year 3, with very little competition for playing time, this is a make or break season for the 13th overall pick of the 2023 draft.

My heart sure hopes that LVN breaks out in 2025, but my head tells me to believe it when I see it.

I'll say this, if LVN turns it on this defense could elevate from good to outstanding.

Conversely, if LVN does not make a significant 3rd year jump, there will be increased scrutiny over what is becoming a concerning list of unproductive or at least relatively unproductive 1st round pikcs.

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splitpea1's picture

August 05, 2025 at 09:13 pm

Most of us try to be hopeful with the development of our players, but we may be clutching at straws here at this stage of training camp, where optimism abounds everywhere. The first two X posts aren't convincing. MLF suggests LVN was being held back by a desire for perfection? And I have a bridge to sell you.

The most entertaining part of the second post are the replies below: everyone automatically assumes that Morgan must be an even worse pick because LVN got the better of him on this occasion.

Fans will need to see plenty of evidence in the regular season that LVN has made the proverbial jump. Flashes in camp or random conjecture by the head coach isn't going to convince anyone. It's kind of hard to believe we're still even thinking in this capacity with a third-year player taken in the upper first round. Just because this was when Gary took off (we're still talking third year, which isn't exactly early) doesn't mean that history will repeat itself. We'll just have to wait to find out.

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TarynsEyes's picture

August 05, 2025 at 10:31 pm

Hold on here a second, I could swear that many here are still waiting for Gary to jump from being too average, too often. What level of a jump is being expected? To what Gary is or much more. If a Gary level, is that going to be the bar? I hope not, and an abundance of hope isn't in me. But, I'll wait, patiently, one more year to see if he earns a few more.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

August 06, 2025 at 08:44 am

Taryn, here you are calling Gary average when his NFL peers just ranked him the 80th best player in the league. Clearly your opinion on Gary is not consistent with reality.

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TarynsEyes's picture

August 06, 2025 at 09:31 am

The Top 100 players ranking is an entertainment thing that helps fill the off-season void.

You cannot ask employees to rank their friends, fellow workers, and expect them to ignore their biases. Certainly, some players cannot be denied their value, but Gary isn't one of them. He is not a Blue Chip player, therefore, not a top 100 player. It's akin to thinking there are 10 elite QBs. Just because you make a top 10, it doesn't make them all elite.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

August 06, 2025 at 10:23 am

Its voted on by the players lol. And its backed up by the fact that Gary is one of the most double-teamed and chipped edge defenders in all of football. Offenses gameplan around stopping Gary. He just doesnt accumulate the stats people want cuz the Packers dont play him 95% of the snaps like some of the other big name guys do. Packers only play him 65% of ths snaps. That's not Gary's fault. That doesnt make him average. He's far from average. Despite his lack of snaps he still led the entire NFL in edge defender run stops and 3rd down pressure rate. So he basically dominates all 3 downs. But because he doesnt put up the gawdy sack totals, he's just average. People complained for years about the run defense and one of the guys most responsible for it improving gets no credit for it. Some people just cant be happy. Gary is an awesome football player and this team is much better with him than without him. People need to accept it.

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TarynsEyes's picture

August 06, 2025 at 10:50 am

Gary is double-teamed because the opponents simply can, not because he's that much of a presence/threat. His snaps are far less than the top guys is because he can't do it like them. If he could, it would be foolish to not use him. He should have better stats than many others, he's well rested. The fact that you feel the need to defend Gary, simply means there isn't anyone else of value, and you need to defend the best of what little there is. AJ Hawk leads the team history in tackles, would anyone in GB try to defend him as the player you think Gary of being? Different position, but still.

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Since'75's picture

August 07, 2025 at 06:50 am

The only 'jump' i've seen concerning Rashan Gary, is when Gute gave him a 4 year 96 million dollar contract in late '23.
Putting him in the top 5 paid linebackers.

Nick Perry got a nice jump once upon a time, after having 10 sacks one season. then drifted off to never never land.

Kyler Fackrell had 10.5 sacks one season, and didn't get a jump of any kind, except a one way bus ticket out of town.

Rashan Gary is still waiting for a double digit sack season.
Maybe in his upcoming 7th season he'll make that jump.

I always used to think the higher paid players were 'difference makers'.
I'm still waiting for Gary to make a difference.

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TKWorldWide's picture

August 05, 2025 at 10:45 pm

He’s physically gifted, he works hard, and he’s got a new d-line coach. This has got to be the year he shows drastic improvement, or his stay in GB won’t be much longer. I think most fans are pulling for him, but are justifiably cautious in their expectations.

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NFLfan's picture

August 06, 2025 at 01:03 am

We'll find out in one month

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 06, 2025 at 04:18 am

IIRC, while jumping up to a 11.2% pass rushing success percentage dies show improvement, 11.2% is a bad number for a starting Edge. Last season early in TC, some in the media thought putting his hand in ground was making Gary a stud pass rusher. It turned out Zach Tom was out and all of those wins came against Telfort. Tom's return signaled the end of that nice run by Gary, though the two had some nice battles. Gary had a 17.2% win percentage in 2023 which dipped to 12.7% in 2024. His pressures unsurprisingly dropped from 60 to 47. Despite the improvement in pass rush win percentage, LVN had 22 pressures in 2023 and managed 20 in 2024, while his QB hits dropped from 10 to 6 despite playing more snaps.

Morgan had a bad night against LVN. Rasheed was in pads but did not do much in practice on Tuesday. Morgan is going to get a lot of reps at left tackle. Belton looked better at right tackle on Family Night that I expected. He nullified Brenton Cox several times. I was impressed. That is because I think Cox should be the starter opposite Gary and LVN is getting these reps based on draftocracy.

So, we hope LVN was held back by a broken thumb (which seems reasonable) and Clark was held back by a bad toe/foot.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

August 06, 2025 at 08:39 am

So much doomerism over LVN its actually nauseating. Have any of you actually taken some time to watch his film? Any of you? LVN's biggest impediment has been playing time, a common theme amongst the entire d-line. Last year he only played 45% of the snaps with a majority of that coming on early downs when they were playing run. Go watch the film. When given the chance, he collapsed pockets, beats double teams, motor never quits, and he even chases plays down from the backside with consistency. His upside once he masters his craft is absolutely unreal. People need to stop being so impatient and let the kid develop. He's finally being given his chance to start and he's been living in the backfield throughout training camp.

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Starrbrite's picture

August 06, 2025 at 08:57 am

Some great points baloney. My concern is 1st round picks should be full-time starters by this stage.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

August 06, 2025 at 11:44 am

LVN could've been a starter a long time ago. The Packers just chose not to start him. LVN hasn't been given the chance to start a single game yet. Most teams just play guys drafted that high right away. Packers make them earn it first.

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LambeauPlain's picture

August 06, 2025 at 08:47 am

I forget LVN was a 21 year old Junior when drafted. Of course Kenny Clark arrived in GB as a 21 year old Junior too and it took him until his second year to log significant production and starts.

LVN came to Green Bay with his pass rush repertoire consisting of a Bull Rush. Two years later, under Rebrovich, LVN, the Bull Rush remained the only item on his menu.

Covington needs to unlock his "can do" potential because there is plenty of strength, speed, size and "want to" in Luther's work ethic. He and Cox, Jr are key to realizing Hafley's vision of consistent front 4 pressure...Gary and Kenny can't do it on their own. Maybe some sparks from Sorrell too.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

August 06, 2025 at 10:09 am

I respectfully disagree with that. His film shows him using moves other than bullrushes last year. We just didnt get to see enough as he only played 247 pass rush snaps compared to guys like Myles Garrett who had nearly 500 pass rush snaps and Trey Hendrickson getting nearly 600 pass rush snaps. I dont think its very fair to expect a guy to produce like those guys when being given backup snaps. This is just how the Packers do things. Even Edgerrin Cooper only started 4 games and he was the best Packers defensive rookie Ive ever seen in my lifetime. They bring these guys along slowly and develop them for the long term. That's just how they do things.

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Since'75's picture

August 07, 2025 at 09:26 pm

Rashan Gary solidified himself as starter in his 3rd year because Za'Darius Smith was injured and on the outs with the Packers.

It's different with LVN, He wasn't a starter after the Packers let go of Preston Smith because he apparently couldn't win the spot.

You would hope LVN is a starter in this, his 3rd season. You'd like to think the 13th pick of the draft could break into a starters role, sometime?

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