Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - All Cooped up?

The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.

So where were you on National Cooper DeJean Workout Day? What's that you say? You weren't aware? Busy with something else going down that day, like a total solar eclipse? What kind of Packers fan are you, anyway?

Seriously, the last draft prospect I remember causing this much of a stir in Packers Nation was TJ Watt. Yes TJ Watt, the future Hall of Famer that should be playing in Green & Gold, not Black and Gold, but don't get me started on that again. It started early in draft season with the Cooper DeJean love, which is the reason you see him on the cover of the CHTV Draft Guide (which you can order here). And it hadn't really let up much going into his one-man private workout on Monday. Oh, a few detractors have popped up here and there, mostly folks who always have to swim against the tide of popular sentiment. Or those fixated on what they think DeJean CAN'T do instead of acknowledging all that he can do.  Personally, I think he's a safety primarily, with multi-positional versatility that can causes problems for the other team regardless of where you line him up. 

Anyway, as for his Pro Day, here's how it went:

 

Went pretty well for him, wouldn't you say? Consensus now is that he will go much earlier in the first round than where the Packers pick, but who really knows? And if the Packers are in love with him, who's to say they may not try to move up and nab him. Gutey has shown extreme willingness to move up in Round One to get "his guy" before. We just don't know if DeJean is that guy. Oh, and here's an excerpt from the Draft Guide on DeJean:

DeJean could mimic Charles Woodson’s role when he was with the Packers. He’s excellent in all forms of zone from the outside and over the slots. When in man, he can lock up the bigger wide receivers on the outside and the jumbo slots inside. Has added benefit from the slot because of his physical presence and the ability to blitz. 

Nice work here from Tazim Wajid Wajed:

 

Packers vs City of Green Bay - if you missed it, Aaron and Corey had a very interesting conversation with the Mayor of Green Bay regarding the Packers - City of GB kerfuffle. Listen here:

 

King for a Day - So, it seems Kevin King, who has been out of the league since 2021, is going to try to resurrect his injury-laden career with the Atlanta Falcons. My one worry about King when he was drafted was his ability to defend the deep ball. Playing for the Packers, you could see he was at his best when the ball was in front of him and not when he had to turn and chase receivers - despite his very good speed. Tracking the deep balls always seemed to be an issue, way before injuries became his Kryptonite. He's going to go and play for his old DB coach, Jerry Gray and I hope it works out for him. And again, I'm not going to go on a TJ Watt tangent... 

Any one else think player comps for draft prospects are irrelevent and a waste of time?

The initial response to the Draft Guide this year has been outstanding. If you have ordered the guide, CheeseheadTV and the entire draft guide team thanks you profusely for your support. If you would like to support CheesheadTV, you can order the guide here.

 

 

PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.

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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther.  Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP

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Comments (101)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NickPerry's picture

April 10, 2024 at 06:25 am

I love the thought of DeJean being a Green Bay Packer. CB IS a need for GB, especially since we really have no idea what will happen with Alexander. I mean what was that strange message about at the end of the year thanking Packers fans for his time as a Packer? Hopefully with Joe Barry out of the picture Alexander will be back to his All-Pro self.
I

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packerbackerjim's picture

April 10, 2024 at 06:33 am

De Jean would be a great addition to the D, but increasingly think Gute will need to move up if he wants him. If not, Bishop in the second round at Safety and adding a CB with the other second or third round is an alternative. The Draft Guide makes for great reading and solidifies my standing as a draft geek.

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Tundraboy's picture

April 11, 2024 at 12:55 am

I agree. I feel as if the The Draft Guide has given me super powers to navigate through any mock analysis with ease!

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HawkPacker's picture

April 10, 2024 at 07:20 am

I really hope we are able to get Dejean. I have followed him in college and he does so many things well and appears to be so humble. You never see him point to himself.

I also think back to last year when he is waving his arms low on a potential punt return, to warn his players not to inadvertantly touch the ball. Well he got the ball and returned it for a touchdown only to be called back as the refs said he was calling for a fair catch.

Al, I do like your comparison to the role played by Charles Woodsen. I, like you, certainly would not compare the talent as being the same but I do like the idea that there would be many roles he can play in the secondary.

I do see the possibility that he could play a huge role on our secondary for years to come.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:45 pm

It's fun to speculate about what might or might not happen in this draft, but I have to laugh and shake my head at the over reactions by most sports writers. They go from this guy "being a Packer" to "no way can GB get him unless they trade up for him. Aggressively." Meanwhile QB Penix is written about as "having a wide range of possible draft position," a reasonable statement I can get on board with.

Cooper improved his draft stock Monday? Ok. What did people think his best 40 time was? What other metrics was he perceived as being substantially worse at? It seems to me that the full extent of this news is that he's back from injury now. With over 4 months remaining before week 1, this is a game changer?!? It means he can practice if he remains injury free, potentially improving his rookie contribution. Sure, removing doubts about that adds value, but it's just a bit too desperate for news ...

There's still SO much we don't know, like how this new staff is actually going to function, and how that's going to carry over to our returning talent on the field. That's where the biggest improvement should come from IMHO, and not just on defense. If our offense is practicing together all off-season before OTAs they might pick up right where they left off, meaning continuing to improve, RAPIDLY. What will ST do with the new rule changes? After all that, sure some shiny new toys are fun.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 10, 2024 at 07:22 am

So he’s solid athletically, he’s a high football IQ guy, he’s a solid tackler. He’s from Iowa. All it takes is one GM to get jazzed about him and he’s gone by 25. Is BG willing to trade up for him? He has shown he’ll do it for “his guy” but like Al said, we have no idea if he is. In fact, it’s likely Brian has a short list of “his guys” and what he’d be willing to give up to go get each of them. It’s also likely he has a “bucket” of guys similarly graded that he’d move back for with the expectation he can get more than one of them.
How can a fan not love this time of year?

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:49 pm

I loathe the idea of trading up in round 1. Trading back? Adds extra excitement, but risks the desired player being gone.

There are some serious needs that might be met in those top 5 draft picks, if all goes well, AND with "luck."

GPG!

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GregC's picture

April 10, 2024 at 07:27 am

Yeah, that Charles Woodson comparison in the Draft Guide was pretty intriguing. A more recent, and more modest, comparison would be Micah Hyde. I think our current DC might be more willing to get creative in utilizing that type of player than the last two DCs were.

Yesterday there was an article in Packers Wire called "5 Trade-Up Scenarios for the Packers in the NFL Draft." It provides values of trade-ups to #15, #17, #19, #21, and #23. They are not outrageous, but I still think trading up to #15 or #17 would be too much for a player like DeJean, even if they like him a lot. But jumping up to #19 or #21 is not out of the question. Hard to see DeJean not being taken by the Eagles if he is still there at #22. He seems like just the kind of player the Eagles would love to have to help revive their defense, which really went down the tubes last season.

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 07:40 am

I was thinking the Eagles or Miami.

Also, you can never tell what the Bears are going to do to screw us up. They screw their draft picks up so bad they must figure the best thing to do is to try to screw someone else because it won't help them anyway.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:51 pm

Wait!

Steve, are you suggesting that

da Bares still suck?!?

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:05 pm

That's like asking me if I can still dance the night fantastic.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:01 am

Woodson ran a public 4.37 40 at Michigan at 200 pounds. The Combine 4.4 was never reflective of his play in college or after. There are some suggestions that Woodson coasted through his combine, which unfortunately would be suggestive of his early “it’s all too easy” attitude. He knew he was going early and he did.

A different level of athleticism and that’s without taking into account his incredible instincts that had already showed up at Michigan (Freshman of the Year, Big 10, Big10 pass break up record (15) as a sophomore , Heisman Trophy and Jim Thorpe award as a Junior (last season) among other accolades).

That’s why he’s a generational talent despite a lackadaisical attitude earlier in his career. Always, always be very careful of any comparison of anyone to that type of unicorn talent. No knock on DeJean, who has talent, but that’s a classic sign of an over enthusiastic review.

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HawkPacker's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:36 am

I believe Jersey Al said that he can mimic what Woodson did in the defensive backfield and not comparing him as having the same talent. I reference that as well in my comment above. It appears that DeJean can play multiple positions in the defensive backfield.

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GregC's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:39 am

To be fair, they just said he could mimic the role that Woodson played in the defense. I agree that you can't expect anyone to have that level of talent. That's why I made the Micah Hyde comparison. But DeJean will probably be much better than Hyde.

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 10:09 am

I think the Micah Hyde comparison is most appropriate. How do they compare speed-wise, do you know?

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:11 am

Hyde ran 4.56. A tad faster than Branch, noticeably slower than DeJean did at his pro day.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:12 am

The comparable player is Harrison Smith.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:16 am

Smith is a little bigger, but yes, a FS.

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 07:33 am

Still working through the draft guide. It's been very intriguing. Have to break it up or I'm finding I'm not getting any of my work done.

I hope we don't have to give up draft capitol to move up to get Dejean but would be happy if it works out. Otherwise, just get the O-line we need or some surprise that Gute always pulls.

Have to have the lines on O and D stabilized and excelling before anything else maters anyway.

People thought the second half of last season that Love and his receivers were getting on the same page and to a certain extent that was true. The truth is actually that the O-line started getting on the same page by that time and everything started to flow and work. Throw in a successful stretch of a healthy Aaron Jones and we had a pretty good O. Just wouldn't have happened without the O-line.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 10, 2024 at 07:46 am

How about the insane notion Love and the receivers were getting on the same page AND the O-line was getting more cohesion as well? I know, I know, that’s crazy…

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:01 am

That's exactly what I meant. One doesn't happen whithout the other, AND the running game.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:40 am

Yes!
And, this one IS actually weird: did Aaron Jones’ early injuries actually help him to be fresher at the end of the season?

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:48 am

I think it played a big part and he said as much, I believe. No worries about snap counts. It really helped out when AJD got banged up.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:01 pm

Don't forget that JL10 NEVER had time for a coke and a smoke. Even the successful plays, he got the ball out a split second before pressure arrived.

Can the needed improvement on our O line arrive via everybody being at 100% instead of playing injured? I hope so. Of course they'll continue to improve by playing together longer. What about Mt Caleb, Telfort, Tenuta? Are they going to fade into the background, move up into legitimate depth, or what?

Improved O line Improves the whole team; compared to week 1, that's our most pressing need. IMHO. If they can start the season dominating across all 5 positions, I don't see why the Superbowl window isn't OPEN.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:45 pm

There were two big improvements on the OL late. Walker getting settled and Runyon returning to health. Runyon is gone. C remains borderline and Rhyan unproven. Behind him is Newman. No, we don’t solve that without an influx of talent.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:51 pm

I was watching the Chiefs game the other day.....Runyan had a very low PFF ranking had several plays where he didn't look very good at all. Certainly not like a $30M guy. But by the Cowboy game, he was much better.

Walker's head was just kind of spinning, and by using Nijman to take snaps so that Walker could collect himself, it gave Walker a chance to get his feet under him again and play with some confidence.

Not worried about Rhyan. He's classic draft and develop. A Day Two guy who started playing his second year and who held his own. He'll be fine at RG, which is the least important position on the line.

Newman is tough for me, because I don't like slamming our own players, but I'm really hoping he doesn't make the team. Unfortunately, unless we bring in several guys, he probably will.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:55 pm

Steve, yup!

O line is what I want to see prioritized. Whatever picks that winds up being, we need not just depth to develop but some legitimate competition at at least C & RG. Maybe OT.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 10, 2024 at 05:05 pm

Bingo!

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Razer's picture

April 10, 2024 at 07:57 am

Not sure that DeJean sticks out much more than any other CB or safety so throwing draft capital at a higher pick doesn't make sense to me other than he can say Iowa on the broadcast lead-in. My gut is saying that this is a trade down kind of draft. Most of our success needs to come from rounds 2-4. Build the roster with depth on the lines and in the secondary. A couple of late draft finds at RB and in the trenches would be icing.

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x24's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:29 am

I agree with the "trade down" sentiment. I also have this gut feeling that the first pick will be spent on a WR.

Before the torches are lit! They NEVER pick the player we are certain they will pick, and it will take first round level talent for a WR to break into the line up

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:07 pm

Even a WR talent capable of breaking into the lineup would be a wasted pick. Pushing aside one perfectly serviceable player for another who doesn't know the playbook?

Starting that secession pipeline can wait until 2025, IMHO. On our O line, it can NOT.

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x24's picture

April 10, 2024 at 05:36 pm

I agree on O line! But signs point to few true blue chip OL (that meet GB measurables) in the first, and lots of prospects in the later rounds

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HawkPacker's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:41 am

I do not like the idea of the Packers trading up in the draft and losing draft capital. However, under drafting the BPA at any position scenario, if Gute thinks DeJean is a generational talent and he does trade up then I am fine with that. It is impressive that DeJean can play multiple positions in the secondary but not sure if he is deemed a generational talent.

I guess we shall see. This sure does get the juices flowing in thinking about the draft!

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 07:58 am

Sorry, I’m going to be somewhat contrary to the general assumptions here.

Personally, I think he’s a slot ideally or a FS potentially. Hafley, even in college, preferred bigger box safeties. I’d look to play him at slot and Nixon at SS if we did pick him up. However I think he’s now gone well before we are due to pick.

I don’t see the Packers trading up for him in part for that reason and partly because there will almost certainly be other talents at positions of need available.

I also think that there are decent SS prospects of that type later in the draft. What I don’t see is an obvious dual role ready rookie. I do see some developmental FS types later.

Ryan Watts, Texas is an example of an unheralded late draft, late blooming potential SS conversion similar to DeJean and a plus tackler. Decamerion Richardson is a late blooming slot depth candidate on day 3.

There are others, those are just late pick examples. We’ve Talked about Trey Taylor as a slot type but he’s actually potentially capable of converting to all around S. I think a less polished but similar upside, character and style of player to DeJean. I’d rather reach for him a little later than expend significant prime draft capital to grab DeJean.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:23 am

I read last week that Kool Aid has the lowest passer rating allowed over the last two years when playing press. If they're looking for help outside Hafley is probably pounding the table for him.

Mustapha is a SS that played over 300 snaps in the slot over the last two years. I've seen a couple boards that have him as the #1 ranked safety and I think he has that kind of upside but I think you'd have to live with some ups and downs while he settled in to the NFL. If Hafley is the DB guru people claim than maybe he could do that quickly. He'd be a fun add, they haven't had a hitter like him in years.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:29 am

I agree with you on Kool-Aid as a true corner. I have much greater doubts about Mustapha in coverage: instincts, recognition and length being to the fore. He’s a willing but not great tackler too.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:09 pm

Drinking the Kool aid takes on new meaning for a month? Lol

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 10, 2024 at 05:07 pm

I'm with you CW!

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Racingdad's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:00 am

Dejean may or may not become a packer if he goes way too early than pivot to koolaid as he’d be a great fit also in gb -if you haven’t yet listen to Andy’s show today - would love either for various reasons and both would be great fits in gb

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zeke's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:09 am

If they move up for a CB I think I'd rather have Quinyon Mitchell.

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GregC's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:51 am

Yes, but they would probably have to move farther up to get Mitchell.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:18 am

PFF has now moved DeJean up to being their top CB prospect, 9th overall, with Mitchell 10th, after his pro day. I haven’t found recent updates from other sources, but his testing puts him athletically into consideration as a genuine CB prospect not just a slot/S conversion.

He’s Brian Branch as he was talked about before he ran 4.6 ish 40s and showed minimal explosion. Branch was a nickel CB in college and has similar size. DeJean isn’t an elite athlete as a CB, but he’s a long way above Branch and with similar instincts. PFF is probably not far wrong.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:26 am

PFF has had him that neighborhood for a long time. I think a team playing mostly zone is going to have more interest in him outside than a team like the Packers. They're not always the board to look at when trying to decide where a player will go. I'd guess he's drafted in the 15-20 range.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:30 am

They bumped him up from the 20s. I’d guess mid teens is more reasonable. Personally, if I was seeking a starter at perimeter CB, I’d still take Mitchell first.

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LeotisHarris's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:31 am

T.J. Watt. 4th and 26. Brandon Bostick.

Don't think of an elephant.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:17 pm

Thank you for that, Leotis. If you're a Packer fan, there are things that have happened since Lombardi left that make you want to cry. The game in 1968 when we were mathematically eliminated and the crowd starting singing Auld Lang Syne (and with a total unawareness of the long trip through the desert we had just begun.)

We could have had Watt, but we were in dire need of help at CB and we had two starters at OLB (Matthews and Perry) and that's why we traded down, missed out on Watt, and took King. I think that one of the draft picks we got by trading down was used to get Vince Beigel, and he wasn't quite as good as we hoped. In retrospect, we probably should have taken Watt but it would have been hard to predict that we'd whiff at #33 and #108.

I am apparently mellowing in my old age, but I just don't have that desire to see Bostick torn apart by wild animals. When 45 guys play, it's unfair to point to one guy and say "it was his fault". Lots of guys had bad plays that day.

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Cheezehead72's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:33 am

To move up to get DeJean will require one of the 2nd rounders depending on how high they need to go. That is a minimum.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:44 am

To get him at 10 would mean we can go home till day 3.

If he’s there at 15 that would be about the 57th pick. We pick 58th, so probably pick 25 and that (our third overall pick) and our late 5th pick.

To jump to 20 to get him would probably take our picks 25 and 91 in the third.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 03:02 pm

According to the rankings I'm seeing, none of the CBs are probably going to be taken in the top 16 picks. 4 QBs, 3 WRs, 4 OL and a couple of Edge guys, maybe Bowers at TE.

Arnold, Mitchell, Wiggins, McKinstry, DeJean, would still be on the board at around 16. I don't see 5 out of the next 9 picks being CBs, so we should still have a shot at one at #25. No need to trade up.

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MooPack's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:40 am

Tazim Wajed is exactly right. Watch his video. He describes DeJean perfectly and how the Packers could use him. He is going to be an interchangeable DB. S/Nickel with high playmaking ball traits. Oh, and he is an excellent punt returner. I'd have no problem with the Packers moving up to get him, as long as the cost is reasonable.

He's the perfect Packer draft pick where BPA meets need.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:15 pm

"Reasonable"

There is no scenario that involves a "reasonable cost" to trade up that high.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:14 am

I would be as happy as any Packer fan if DeJean fell to us @ #25, but I am totally against moving up in the first round to get him. Unlike the Jordan Love tradeup, which was cheap any way you look at it, this one would cost a 2nd round pick. That's a pick we could take a starting LB or Safety with. DeJean is good, but he isn't that much better than the next guy in line at his position. Yeah, the one we don't have to tradeup for.

Al, here are some questions about DeVondre Sweat-NT-Texas. Do you like him to Green Bay, would he be a gamechanger for us, if we drafted him, and if he was a 2nd round pick before the OWI incident, how far will he fall?
Or should we wait until 2025 when DT is the #1 need for us in the draft? Edge is #2 need.

Also, if Graham Barton will play IOL 90% of the time, is he better than other players we can draft later to play OG/OC? It doesn't sound like he would ever play OT so why spend a first round pick on Barton, when GB could trade back and get 2 players that actually excelled at OG/OC?

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:42 am

My hope is someone really reaches for DeJean and the player Gutekunst wants drops even further back. In a perfect world, DeJean, 6 quarterbacks, 4 or 5 receivers and a tight end are all drafted before pick 25. That's my dream and I'll stick to it.

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HawkPacker's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:50 am

GP1, I believe for the players you discussed, it really depends on how Gute views each of these players. I can argue both ways.

I really do not like the idea of losing early draft capital on a move up but it just depends on how Gute views a player as to whether or not that player is not on BPA but if the player is deemed to be head and shoulders above the rest of the players available. Much like his thought when he drafted Love, which I was in the minority of liking the pick at the time. And I only liked the pick because Gute liked it and the FO knows a whole bunch more that the rest of us!

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:15 pm

For Gutey's first ever draft pick as GM, he traded up in the first round to get Jaire Alexander. It didn't take a 2nd rounder to move from 27 to 18; it took a 3rd and a 6th and they got a 7th back from SEA. That turned out to be well worth it. And we know Gutey's willing to do that to get his guy; he did it 3 years in a row, with Alexander, Savage and Love. On a team that is so close to being truly competitive in the playoffs, he might do that again.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:56 pm

76 was a relatively early third. 7th rounders have little to no value in trades, maybe a couple of spots in the 6th. At the time it was thought a good value trade (pick aside). Sometimes you can get those and sometimes not. A trade from 25 to 20 is generally worth a pick in the low 90s.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:47 pm

I'm not sure who Zach Barton is. Graham Barton is the really good OL from Duke, and I'm going to assume that's who we're talking about.

Here's the appeal to Barton: He's smart, he's versatile, and he gives us a backup at every position, which is nice because we don't know where the injury will strike. Longer term, he's probably our next Center. He's probably not a tackle in the pros, but that doesn't mean he can't play tackle in a pinch. Mike Flanagan and Darryn Colledge weren't tackles either, but they could fill in on a temporary basis.

Since the prevailing opinion is that we need more than one guy on the offensive line, we can still get a tackle later, like Amegadjie.

I know the question about Sweat was directed to Al, but I'd like to answer this.

A team can run or pass. The harder it is to run, the more they're going to pass. Runs are usually 5 yards or less, whereas passes get completed at a 66% rate for more than 10 yards/completion. Most yards in a football game are through the air. Most points in football games come through the air.

So we want to get a guy like Sweat so that our opponents will throw more? I'm not sure that's the best idea.

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:04 pm

"he's versatile, and he gives us a backup at every position" and gives no opportunity for Newman to get on the field. Like Tom started out, and he actually is too good to move in to center now. Tom didn't profile as an NFL tackle, I think.

You may want to pick your poison in how you'd rather get beat, but making a team one dimensional on offense is how you start to win. Run or pass.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:24 pm

That point about Tom is true. The key word on Tom when he got drafted was.........versatile. He played a couple of positions for us his rookie year, but he's a damn good tackle.

I've been rewatching the games from Thanksgiving on, and Tom has just been handling his man. In the playoffs, Parsons might just as well have stayed home in bed for all he got accomplished against Tom.

If I'm picking my poison, I'd rather have teams run than pass against me. One good completion does as much damage as several runs. Teams will stop themselves with penalties, missed assignments, turnovers. Or occasionally, we'll get a stop and then they'll pass.

Remember, a 5.0 rushing average doesn't mean they're getting 5 yards on every play. It means most of the runs are 4 yards or less and a few longer ones bring up the average. From a defensive perspective, 40 runs for 200 yards isn't as bad as 40 passes for 280 yards.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 03:14 pm

The Packers averaged 4.4 yards per opponent carry last year but only 16 over 20 yards and one over 40. The 16 was lower half, the 1 was top half.

The reality is that, on 493 attempts those long plays still left giving up over 4 yards per carry with them excluded. Not a recipe for drive ending over a season.

Moreover, a D giving that up is seldom in favorable passing formations, allowing even poor passers to beat us through the air.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 03:32 pm

If you set the bar at 20, yeah. Why 20? What's magical about that? Why not 10? Or 5? If a team has runs of 12, 2, and 1, that's 5 yards/carry even though you're stopping the run pretty well 2/3 of the time.

Look back at some of the games and see if I'm not telling the truth. Most of the runs against us were less than our average...4.4 MOST. It is the relatively fewer long runs that bring the average up to 4.4

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 10, 2024 at 04:18 pm

many people hate math

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 05:26 pm

Just like Middle School. Write down all the runs, and put them in order from least to greatest. Find the median. It's not 5.0, it's not 4.4, it's not 4. Then consult your average and see how many runs were below that average by a yard or more, and how many were above that by a yard or more.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:13 pm

Thanks, I do know my median from my mode or mean. The reality is that even a rough calculation shows that over a season there weren’t enough long runs to take the mean down below 3.333 recurring. This the mean suggests teams frequently did run for first downs regularly.

That’s not shocking because they did, and the result opened up our D in the passing game against teams and QBs who may never have such a good day again in some cases. Our best run D was a lead large enough to persuade teams to go away from it if their own accord.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:55 pm

The funny thing is they played 7 crappy QBs but only one where Barry let them sell out to stop the run and the dominated the Rams. Probably should have tried that against the Giants.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:45 pm

"From a defensive perspective, 40 runs for 200 yards isn't as bad as 40 passes for 280 yards."

They gave up 200 yards rushing four times last year and lost all four games. You like to repeat this often but it's not true.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:17 pm

Golf,

I certainly hope Gutey is thinking through those specific scenarios!

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 10, 2024 at 04:10 pm

Using shoddy statistical method - I have determined that the probabilities of Gutekunst trading up/down/hold at #25 are:

Up - 17%
Down - 33%
Hold - 50%

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:14 am

"Consensus now is that he will go much earlier in the first round than where the Packers pick, but who really knows? And if the Packers are in love with him, who's to say they may not try to move up and nab him."

Every year we hear how so and so player won't make it to pick whatever. Sometimes they don't make it, sometimes they do. But like you said if they really want him they could very well move up to get him.

Based on trade charts to move up to pick 15 (10 spots), they would have to give up Pick 58 (2nd round) and Pick 202 (7th round). For them to move up 5 spots to pick 20 they would give up 3rd round pick 91.

Just for fun lets say they want to move up to pick 10. According to the charts they would Trade picks 25,41,91 and get back 10 and 135.

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 11, 2024 at 08:16 am

consensus is the mean where creativity goes to die.

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Starrbrite's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:15 am

Ron Wolf said if you really like a guy—“go get’em!”
Last year I wanted Van Ness, and this I’m sold on DeJean.
Go get’em!
Go Packers!!!

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:43 am

He said that about quarterbacks. Wolf also hired Ray Rhodes, and made Mike Sherman the GM.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:04 am

Wait, Ron Wolf wasn't perfect? You think if there were internet comment sections when the mighty Ron Wolf was GM he would have been hated and berated? Sure, when GB lost the Super Bowl to DEN, fans would have called for his head.

And, do you have a source for Wolf making Sherman the GM? It looks like Wolf retired and then Sherman was named GM (by the committee or board or whatever it was called).

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:10 pm

Wolf moved Sherman into the role to replace himself. Harlan corrected that mistake by hiring Ted to correct that huge error.

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Starrbrite's picture

April 10, 2024 at 08:35 pm

Wolf was referring to FA’s—but he he felt the same about any player. He’s said so in his book.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:22 pm

Will Cooper DeJean keep JL10 from getting injured?

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Bitternotsour's picture

April 10, 2024 at 09:37 am

Come on Al. "Any one else think player comps for draft prospects are irrelevent and a waste of time?" And then you do a comp to Charles Woodson? Charles Woodson who won a Heisman as the best player in college football, the first defensive player to ever win it? Cooper DeJean?

Jesus, have your draft crush and all that, but please. Charles Woodson is royalty. That is not a comp pally.

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JerseyAl's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:42 am

Come on right back at you. I'll suggest that you read a bit more carefully. No one, not I or the draft guide analyst suggested he is anywhere near Charles Woodson's level. "Mimic his role" should make it abundantly clear the intent here - that the Packers could use him in a similar manner as Woodson was used. Nobody compared him talent-wise to Charles Woodson.

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:57 am

Do you think there's really any chance we could end up with him?

Too good to be true?

If we guess it, or want it, it's usually something or someone totally unexpected.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:55 pm

Despite his excellent pro day, I calculate there's a 50% chance that either DeJean or McKinstry will reach 25.

Of the 24 teams picking before us, many are looking for a QB, or a WR, or a premium lineman like Alt. Not everybody is looking to spend a top pick on a CB, and as many times as I run this, we've almost always got either DeJean or McKinstry....or both....available at #25.

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:13 pm

That IS too good to be true. Thanks, LH.

That also means Gute will go in an entirely different direction. HA! Long snapper?

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crayzpackfan's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:53 pm

Leatherhead - Good points. I agree with your 50% calculation. But...(The road to the 25th pick) Don't forget, someone will take the Georgia TE to take another spot. I'm thinking CTRL-"Alt"-DEL and "maybe" 2-3 more tackles in the mix. Probably an edge rusher and a reach for a DL. 5-6 QB's. 5-6 WRS. I think one CB will go before DeJean.

Just stop it CrayZ....

No way we get DeJean at 25. Unless this draft goes nuts and/or we trade up, it ain't gonna happen. I'm cool with McKinstry if CB is the play at one.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:59 pm

Can you share your work on that calculation?

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:58 pm

Bill Parcels would say they're not a waste of time.

"How does he play? Does he play or look like a guy that's played well in the league? We were always striving for that point of comparison."

https://www.the33rdteam.com/how-type-grading-system-allows-nfl-teams-to-...

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 10, 2024 at 10:58 am

"Any one else think player comps for draft prospects are irrelevent and a waste of time?"

Yep, irrelevant AND a waste of time. And it leads to constant fan comparison of current players with former players, as if they were interchangeable legos.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:22 pm

Like a proud Dad showing a picture of his favorite son - to anyone, at anytime - I can understand Cooper DeJean being featured on the cover of the CHTV Draft Guide. Because the Editor-In-Chief should be entitled to a perk or two. However, I do wonder what the letdown impact will be should CDJ not become a Packer. If so, I don't imagine that any TVs will be smashed (see Dallas fans). Nor many angry calls for Gutekunst's immediate resignation. At most, perhaps a little venting - with words and arm movements - followed by a period of sullen acceptance. Or not.

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JerseyAl's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:39 pm

For the record, I don't choose the player on the cover based on my feelings, it strictly the one player that Packers Nation seems to be hankering for. So I'm just giving the people what they want!

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crayzpackfan's picture

April 10, 2024 at 02:03 pm

I live two and half hours from Iowa City and lived there for 12 years. You might say I have seen him play in many games. Some games live. If it works out that we get him, it works out. I hope we can as long as it isn't at the expense of the big picture. Team first. But hoping he's part of the team.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 10, 2024 at 03:35 pm

Personally, I would have chosen a collection of photos - identifying a number of potential GB draft picks. Yet, I do not disagree that CDJ is probably the most popular choice among Packers fans. Ultimately, it's between the covers that matters most to me.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:35 pm

Hopefully, DeJean will fall to us and then everybody can be happy. If he doesn't he will push Koolaid and Wiggins down the draft order a little bit and we'll have a shot at them. I'm not really sure how to gauge the difference between DeJean and the Koolaid/Wiggins, but a good, dependable CB would be something we can use. You can never have too many good DBs.

I think the Packers have a very good shot at getting either DeJean or Koolaid, especially if Wiggins gets taken before #25, which many prognosticators have said will happen. He's most frequently mentioned in that 18-23 range.

If the Top 5 CBs are Arnold,Mitchell, Wiggins, DeJean, and McKinstry, once you start filling in the QBs and other top players, I don't think all 5 CBs will be gone by #25.

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Coldworld's picture

April 10, 2024 at 11:19 pm

Most of those you name are primarily perimeter prospects. DeJean is seen as an inside prospect. Not really the same proposition.

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croatpackfan's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:35 pm

Nice to be "in love" with someone, Al, but I would like to hear from you which OL player is thje most intriguing for you, as I think Packers will need to bolster their OL for the next season.

Thanks!

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 12:52 pm

Al usually specializes in O-line, so it's a good bet it's in the works and draft guide.

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JerseyAl's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:48 pm

I loved watching film of Taliese Fuaga but for the Packers, I'd go with Tyler Guyton, but he will need a year of refining. Spent two wasted years at TCU, then went to Oklahoma, where they had to teach him how to play tackle. Only started for one year at RT, but his athleticism is off the charts and his ceiling is high. Farther down in the draft, I like Roger Rosengarten, Javon Foster and Christian Jones. A lot more detail in the draft guide, obviously.

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croatpackfan's picture

April 11, 2024 at 02:56 am

Thanks Al! I'll check...

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GregC's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:11 pm

Too bad DeJean will probably be out of reach. Our defense needs a dynamic playmaker, and he could be that kind of special player. We do have some very good players on defense (Gary, Clark, Alexander) but none of them are dominant players week-in and week-out. If not DeJean, a really good CB like Kool-Aid could help a lot, though. I'm hoping there is a defender who is worthy of that #25 pick (or trading up a little ways for) because the defense is more in need of juice than the offense is, and the first round is obviously the best place to find a difference maker.

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:20 pm

I think Gary and Clark are and were "dominant players week-in and week-out". They very quietly had good seasons. When the D gets more players to compliment them, they'll be putting up the numbers too. Not just top 5s in getting double teams either.

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GregC's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:38 pm

Gary faded at the end, possibly from fatigue after having to play a full season right after rehabbing his knee. I hope he will be fresher in 2024.

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T7Steve's picture

April 10, 2024 at 01:42 pm

His best attribute is said to be his work ethics. I believe you're correct and he's going to have a monster season.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 10, 2024 at 05:37 pm

I don't think that any Packer has fulfilled their contract more than K.C. For years he led the NFL in being double-teamed and was still disruptive. His durability is remarkable - considering the miles on his odometer (I love former wrestlers in the trenches). Yet he's only 28 - with the likelihood of another good 2 years ahead of him. Which is why I believe that the Packers will sign him to an extension this off-season. Plus playing in a 4-3 scheme under Hafley may unleash more of his innate abilities.

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gsd3's picture

April 11, 2024 at 05:44 am

Where he is drafted really depends upon what each individual team thinks his position is. If those picking in front of the pack regard him as a corner, he probably won't be available. If he is viewed as a safety , he could drop to early in the 2nd round.
If that were to happen, I hope gutey goes up and gets him.

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