Welcome to the first weekly “Game Changing Play of the Week” analysis. In this space each week, I’ll analyze a single play from the game that had significantly influenced the Packers’ victory (or loss, God forbid). These games will usually be momentum changers or turning points, but could also simply be statement plays or remarkable highlights.

For week one against the Bears, a lot of the attention is going to be on the Randall Cobb 75-yard catch and run that ultimately ended up being the game winner. But what really sparked the Packers’ fourth-quarter rally was Aaron Rodgers’ gorgeous touchdown heave to Geronimo Allison in the corner of the endzone.

Just an absolutely ridiculous throw on one leg, and a gorgeous catch to complete it. This is going to be the subject of my "Game Changing Play of the Week" article today on @cheeseheadtv #packers https://t.co/yHBrzMbJPJ

— Tim Backes (@timbackes) September 10, 2018

The context

At the time of this play, Rodgers had given the offense a little bit of spark by returning from his first-half knee injury, but down 17 at the start of the fourth quarter, most Packer fans were probably not realistically thinking “we’re going to win.”

The Packers’ offense began to come alive in the third quarter largely due to a shift in passing philosophy. Whether it was Mike McCarthy calling different plays or Aaron Rodgers getting the ball out quicker, the team started gaining some momentum by getting the ball out quickly on short slants, outs and crossing routes. This effectively neutralized what had been an extremely potent Bears pass rush in the first half.

On this particular drive, the Packers started at the 19 yard line with a couple minutes remaining in the third quarter. The positive plays on this drive weren’t anything particularly flashy. A third and 14 conversion resulted from a pass to Allision that traveled about 11 or 12 yards in the air. Allison caught another pass on first down for 12 yards, about seven of which was after the catch. Otherwise, the Packers gobbled up short chunks of yardage on runs and short passes.

The same had been true of the previous drive, on which the Packers scored a field goal for their first points of the game. Short, rhythm passes to move the chains and no-huddle offense to get down the field quickly.

This set up the play we’re about to analyze.

The play

The broadcast showed numerous close-up shots of Rodgers’ left leg when he would drop back and then plant to throw. It was clear he was favoring the leg, and the Bears almost certainly knew it as well. Less ability on Rodgers’ part to scramble and plant his leg means a lower likelihood of big plays downfield.

As a result, the Bears were able to feel a little more confident lining up in single coverage. It burned them on this play.

Here’s the pre-snap setup. The straight red lines indicate the single coverage on all receivers that go out for routes. The circled Bear defender drops back into a shallow zone, roughly in between where you’ll see running back Ty Montgomery and tight end Jimmy Graham take their routes.

What’s noteworthy here is that it’s second and two, and the Bears are most likely expecting a run. Khalil Mack is not on the field. And with seven guys in the box and three men playing tight coverage at the line, there’s just the one deep safety for help on the long ball, meaning on deep routes, Rodgers is going to have single coverage downfield with at least two of his three receivers who take those deep routes.

Here are the routes. Davante Adams (alone out to the left) and Allison (far out to the right) are both going to run go routes to the endzone. Adams appears to beat his man on the inside (I’ll be interested to see the All 22 on this when it comes out) and Allison takes the sideline.

Meanwhile, Randall Cobb is running up the seam, with Graham taking a deep in route to about the 25 yard line (a 15ish yard route) and Montgomery taking the shallow check down to the first down marker. 

With only a four-man rush and no Khalil Mack to worry about, the Packers’ offensive line does an excellent job of providing Rodgers with the time the play needs for the routes to develop. David Bakhtiari does a particularly excellent job of working his man around the back of the play, leaving Rodgers plenty of room to step up behind the comfort of the double team (and some solid blocking by Justin McCray) and deliver the long ball. Bulaga gives up nothing here to his man.

If you look at Rodgers here, you’ll see he clearly wants to go downfield to Adams. That’s his initial read. But as you’ll see shortly, the safety decides to provide extra help on Adams over the top. That’s one benefit of Adams turning into a marquee wideout—he’ll draw the extra help that frees up guys like Allison for big plays like this one.

Apologies for the blurry image here, but it’s enough to give the general idea. I’ve labeled the receivers for clarity.

The safety is the circled player, and as you can see, he’s already realized the ball is going to the other side of the field, but it’s too late—he’d already committed to going to provide help on top of Adams. Meanwhile, Cobb draws his defender to the other side of the hash. What this does is effectively empty half the field, leaving Allison all alone on the bottom in single coverage with the corner.

All Rodgers has to do is get the ball out in front of Allison for this play, and at worst it’s going to be an incompletion. Allison has a step (or maybe a half step) on the defender, so anything other than an underthrown ball has a very small chance of being intercepted.

Of course, here’s where the setup comes into play again. Rodgers has been taking the short, quick routes since his return, and is clearly favoring his injured leg. The Bears were clearly thinking this was likely to be a running down, and were also conscious of the Rodgers injury that would likely make it difficult for most quarterbacks to get the ball downfield on a deep ball.

Unfortunately for them, Rodgers isn’t most quarterbacks, and the Packers successfully lulled them into giving up the verticals. 

Like I said, all Rodgers needs to do is catch Allison in stride, and there’s essentially no chance of an interception.

Of course, this is a difficult throw for any quarterback to make. The corner here, Kyle Fuller, has pretty solid position on Allison. It’s just an absolutely perfect throw, and outstanding concentration by Allison to pull it in.

Most quarterbacks in the league do not reliably make this throw. The fact that Rodgers does it on a bum leg is, frankly, astounding, and yet another example of his greatness.

I mean, come on. Are you kidding me? Look at that placement. This isn’t bad coverage at all by Fuller, but as perfect of a throw as you’ll find in this situation. Allison is only just barely behind him, and Rodgers puts it in an extremely tight window. Allison then has the presence of mind to secure the ball even with Fuller’s outstretched hand in his field of vision.

Just an absolutely outstanding play, one that shows the trust Rodgers has in Allison, and one that energized the team to create one of the most improbable comebacks in Packers history, and certainly the most dramatic that I’ve ever witnessed, considering that many of us thought Rodgers was going to be out for the season at halftime.

That’s it for this week’s Game Changing Play of the Week. On to Minnesota!