Offense Still Awaiting the Return of the deep ball
The explosive, deep shots down the field that Packer fans everywhere have been craving since the culmination of the 2014 campaign have yet to be seen.
2015 marked a dreadful aerial attack - by Aaron Rodgers' standards at least. However, film shows far more than any box score can. There was a clear lack of trust between Rodgers and his receiving group, a communication deficiency and receivers were plugged into spots that they had yet to prepare for. For example, Randall Cobb outside of the slot? Not a very tasteful concept, or so we found out.
All of the aforementioned ingredients transpired as a result of Jordy Nelson no longer being on the field due to his ACL tear during the second week of the preseason.
In attribution to the passing game as a whole breaking down in 2015, success on the deep ball was even more of a systematic failure. On throws down the deep left sideline, only 14 of the 63 were completed at a 22.22% rate. The opposite side wasn't much better, sitting pretty at a 20.83% off of 48 attempts.
In the year prior, Rodgers connected with his targets along the deep right sideline at a 40% rate, taken from a sample size of 55 attempts. The deep passing attack for the Packers in 2014, however, was more noticeable down the middle of the field. The iconic play-action post that Rodgers targeted Nelson on seemingly countless times was successful 65.22% of the time. The Packers went 15 for 23 on those attempts en route to their offensive dominance in 2014.
The hope was, and still is, that once Nelson begins more of a rhythmic pace in his game performance and gets accustomed to being back on the field at full speed, these deep shots down the field will once again resume. So far, it seems like he's on pace to do just that on account of leading all wide receivers with touchdown receptions. Granted all four of Nelson's touchdowns have come in the red zone, it's an achievement that many saw for a receiver coming off of ACL repair surgery and after being absent from the field for over a year.
2016 has shown potential upside for the deep passing game, however. Of the 13, eight and four attempts down the left, middle and right sides of the field respectively, the Packers are averaging just under a 40% completion rate. Again, a small sampling size, but as the offensive attack continues to shape-shift and allow receivers more leverage to create separation, expect the renowned deep bombs to Nelson - or possibly another breakout target, to return.
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Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].
Comments (17)
Handsback
September 30, 2016 at 04:19 pm
The big play offense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders for a while. This is just one of the symptoms. I guess last week was a good sign that it may be returning.
Ibleedgreenmore
September 30, 2016 at 04:33 pm
If we put speed and hands as in Jordy on the field next week I think they will hit one or two. I know that might be a dream but look what happened with Davis on the field. It seems Cook is going to be out a few weeks maybe longer.
Tundraboy
September 30, 2016 at 05:42 pm
Just illustrates how much we need another fast receiver in addition to Jordy. Ideally two. Thought we had that with Janis and now Davis but its going to take awhile longer.
lou
October 03, 2016 at 03:21 pm
Agreed on more overall speed at WR and that it will take some time, Jordy won't be Jordy until at least mid-season, Montgomery had a very serious injury and that may be why he hasn't been worked into the rotation yet (his season last year shows he earned the chance), Davis has the speed but is raw and he has to show he can beat press coverage because of his small stature (that is what made Desmond Howard just a kick returner, he could not beat press man), Adams had a full season to produce and was rated the 2nd worst WR starter by PFF and is still a question mark, it is any bodies guess on why Abby has not been used (normal logic indicates they look at him only in the slot and that may be the case with Davis too). If they gave Adams a full season to produce, why not give Janis who has all the tools at least a couple starts, McCarthy talks about 2 things, pad level and explosive plays. We know Janis may make mistakes, but we also know he can make explosive plays, if that opens the offense, lets live with a couple of mistakes vs a previous starter that has reached his NFL level. Also, in reference to Davis, being at the game he ran a really nice route to get a lot of separation before dropping the pass but it looked to me like he was going to do a quick spin and head to the house, showing that feel for the game was encouraging to me. That is what also bothers me with Adams, he made a super catch for this first TD but he had virtually no separation, the same on his first down slants and when they highlighted his quick move to get off the line vs the Vikes the corner caught up to him in no time even though he faked him out of his jock strap, that is what I mean by hitting his ceiling.
PaulRosik
September 30, 2016 at 05:52 pm
They have had a big play interference call going so far. Does that count?
Bearmeat
September 30, 2016 at 06:52 pm
Honestly, the deep ball threat will grow with Nelson getting back to full health. And I don't really care about it all that much actually. IMHO the deep ball is a result of an in-tempo offense with a variety of threats.
I'd rather be moving the sticks. We don't need to have a 600 point a year offense to get to the super bowl. We need a 450-500 point offense. And we'll get that with better rhythm.
EdsLaces
September 30, 2016 at 06:56 pm
I think the deep ball is gonna be more on Davis than Jordy this year...just a hunch.
Thegreatreynoldo
September 30, 2016 at 08:33 pm
¨Of the 13, eight and four attempts down the left, middle and right sides of the field respectively, the Packers are averaging just under a 40% completion rate.¨
What does this mean? 8 down the left side, 4 down the middle, and what, 1 down the right side?
hybridauth_Facebook_100004084225446
September 30, 2016 at 10:40 pm
Davis is ready raw but he can run the deep ball .........
TommyG
October 01, 2016 at 12:39 am
If 40% was the magic number in 2014, and we are back to 40% now, all things should be fixed? No, the product on the field is a shell of the 2014 outing. The offense is not "shape shifting"; unless of course the author means that AR is running around for his life until someone comes open. This offense is stale. It is based on receivers beating their man on isolation routes. This worked really well when four WR were capable of doing creating separation. The packers do not have this. There is only one (Jordy) who can do this most of the time. Defenses' figured out that by leaving two deep safeties and a strong rush were (had to have both or AR would light them up) what was required to stifle this offense. The same is true today. We need more speed at the WR position. I believe that speed is on the roster, just not being utilized.
Tundraboy
October 01, 2016 at 08:02 am
Agree. Other teams key on Jordy. Has been that way for last 3 years. Noone else to fear and until Davis and Janis prove themselves they have to mix up the O and that means using everyone, including Ty and Abby, in more creative ways.
fastmoving
October 01, 2016 at 05:18 am
I rather had nelson, abby, monty and janis moore on the field than adams and coob. that would open things a lot.........
Tundraboy
October 01, 2016 at 08:05 am
Me too.
stockholder
October 01, 2016 at 10:16 am
The problem with going deep is A-Rod only will look to Adams. This offense has to stay short until A-rod hits his game again. Forget about padding Adams stats so he looks like a golden boy. Searching for the best target is still what will make the west Coast offense great again. If you want the deep pass again just have A-rod throw the Hail Mary.
fastmoving
October 01, 2016 at 02:20 pm
thats just right..............
but when isnt on the field ar can not looking for him???
unforntunately at this point im not 100 procent sure if he looks at him anyway.
jeremyjjbrown
October 01, 2016 at 10:31 pm
If you force them out of man, the long ball will come.
Yooper
October 03, 2016 at 03:02 pm
Last year we heard that "Trust" is the biggest issue if Aaron is going to throw to a receiver and this is the biggest "cop out" ever - If you play the West Coast offense you need to throw to the open receiver period - When the Vikings beat us this season their quarter back was playing pitch and catch with receivers he did not even know and there certainly was NO trust there - and he out played Aaron - Go figure!!!!!!