Play Action Goes Through Jordy Nelson
By hobbes
As Packers fans we’re used to getting fed PC, beat-around-the-bush statements when it comes to team publicity. From Ted Thompson to the UDRFAs on the roster bubble, everyone (outside maybe Jermichael Finley) have towed the company line when it comes to giving statements for public consumption. So it was quite interested that quarterback Aaron Rodgers was so candid on the loss of Jordy Nelson on the inaugural recording of the Wilde and Tausch show, which replaces Green and Gold Today on ESPN.
“No it didn't surprise me; you’re taking nearly 100 catches, 1,500 yards and 10+ touchdowns every year out of the offense. The thing he does is that we have specific packages for him that we just didn’t have a guy to fill those packages, and it was a lot play action stuff, where we’re taking 8 man protections and taking shots down the field, and we didn’t have a guy who could take that spot. “
It’s rather unusual for Rodgers to be so forthcoming, especially when it comes to highlighting the loss of a specific player, since it inevitably focuses attention on the players (namely Randall Cobb and Davante Adams) who couldn’t fill the role of “next man up”.
While I’ve written in other articles that I felt that Aaron Rodgers uncharacteristic inaccuracy and his receivers dropping passes were more at fault than the loss of Jordy Nelson, I hadn’t considered how losing an effective play-action passing game could effect the rest of the passing game and the offense in general.
According to Football Outsiders, the Packers was the worst play-action passing team in the NFL in 2015, which is rather remarkable given they were second in the league in 2014. Perhaps more importantly, Rodgers comments are verified by Football Outsiders showing that without Jordy Nelson they simply ran play-action less, going from 24% (8th in the league) of passes in 2014 to 16% in 2015.
In the end, I still think that the regression of the Packers offense in 2015 cannot be solely attributed to the loss of Jordy Nelson. Nelson’s absence might be significantly more important than I had initially assumed but football is still a team sport and there are 10 other guys on the field that also didn’t do their jobs in 2015.
Comments (9)
Ibleedgreenmore
August 12, 2016 at 12:44 pm
I would be shocked if this years offense is not well ahead of last years. Lets put it this way it had better be.
hobbes
August 12, 2016 at 03:17 pm
Last year was a statistical aberration; given how many years the Packers offense has been one of the most effective in the league, "regression to the mean" is actually a good thing in this case.
TarynsEyes
August 12, 2016 at 03:49 pm
The simple motto of Belichek....Do your job....it shouldn't matter who is or isn't playing, playing bad etc....do your job regardless. The Packers as a whole and individually in many cases simply didn't.
Archie
August 12, 2016 at 03:57 pm
Yeah, count me as buying whatever AROD is selling. The guy has a great head for offensive football. Yes, Adams was disappointing but nobody expected him to be able to take Jordy's place and run Jordy's routes. At least they shouldn't have. Ditto Cobb. It's fact, We have only one Lordy-like WR and that is Jordy. The 7th pick WR that got away to the Vikes may have been able to do it but not the guys we have. That's why I would bet TT drafts a Jordy like WR in the first two rounds of the 2017 draft. This is a trademark of TT, not having replacements ready when we lose a guy. You can look at QBs a few years back, RBs pre-Lacy, TEs since J-Mike, S forever, ILB forever, a complement OLB to Clay, a replacement for Johnny Jolly, a 3rd OL who could play OT etc. The list goes on forever. TT usually doesn't have a young guy ready to step up to fill a vacancy and he is too often very slow to react to roster deficiencies, preferring to tell the media he likes what he's got. If he was a poker player, he'd be called every time i.e., he way over-rates what he's got. That's my read of this GM anyway.
JohnnyLogan
August 12, 2016 at 04:13 pm
Jordy is on PUP. If he isn't completely healed this season we will have the same problems since there is no one else who is a legitimate league #1 receiver on this team. Cobb is great when teamed with Jordy, but doesn't have the size speed package. Adams is too slow, can't separate from #1 corners, and drops too many balls. Monty is a slot receiver. Janis has trouble running routes. Abby is a terrific #3 but also can't separate from #1 corners. That leaves Davis and Allison, two tall fast receivers, but both rookies. So if Jordy stays down, what has changed from last year?
Dr.Rodgers
August 12, 2016 at 11:42 pm
The rebuilding is already starting. Don't tell the morons here the truth. Rodgers is God, Cook is going to chalkenge the middle, and some rookie receiver will break out. A bunch of guys will make the " second year leap" and Kenny,m Lowry, Frack, mand what's his name will be the "answer" at tackle, inside linebacker, blah,blah blah. Most of these discussions are pure bs. Ted Thompson is paid millions to make decisions most of you know squat about. The Packers were very average last year, and no one knows what this year will bring. Without Nelson, this could come down to having a potentially very good defense The offense is in transition. Lacy could be the key to its success.
NickPerry
August 13, 2016 at 11:21 am
This team is always rebuilding so I'm really no sure what you're talking about. Rodgers is a pretty damn good QB who last year lost his #1 Wr. His #2 was injured early and NOBODY knows what effect that shoulder injury had and for how long. Adams is a James Jones replacement, nothing more or less and wasn't right until the end of the season with the ankle. Montgomery REALLY could be something special, just look at weeks 1-5 and everything after. The stats don't always show what a football player brings, but the Packers were better in weeks 1-5 WITH him. The Packers sure as hell don't beat Seattle without Montgomery in week 2, that's for sure.
So Rodgers was working almost the whole season without a #1, his #2, 3, and 4 injured or out. His running game went from being feared and one of the better run games in the NFL to a joke. Then don't forget the Packers played Denver with several of the players on the OL who were playing in last nights preseasons game. In the 3rd and 4th quarters!
For then to be "Very Average" was a hell of an accomplishment if you ask me. No need to call us "Morons " either. You don't have to be paid millions to make SIMPLE conclusions.
pipelinedave
August 12, 2016 at 06:36 pm
Is there a place I can go online and watch the game for free. Or a station I can get on my phone somehow to listen to it. I'm working in southern illinois.
al bundy
August 15, 2016 at 08:25 pm
Hey when everyone was saying how many catches Adams had I was reading an analysis by one scout who said, he played in a spread offense, played slot, caught a lot of short passes over the middle and did not run routes much. So here we are putting him in a postion that he has to run routes and the passes are more than 5 to 10 yards. Thus, I for one wasn't expecting a lot from this guy and wondered why he was even available with the numbers he put up.