As an undrafted free agent, your path toward earning a spot on the 53-man roster of an NFL team is an uphill battle from the start. You may have been one of the most valuable players on your college roster, but you almost have no value on the NFL roster you joined.  Draft picks at least have the team's draft investment behind them, UDFA's are just shots in the dark. So, winning a spot on that 53-man roster to start a season is almost like winning the lottery. But it's not over after that. You may have been that lotto winner then, but it can still come crashing down on you.  You will need to continue to prove yourself again and again. 

A player that I had eyes on who was on the outside looking in during the 2023 preseason, was running back, Emanuel Wilson. Wilson, an undrafted free agent from Fort Valley State University was looking up the depth chart at Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Patrick Taylor, Lew Nichols, and Tyler Goodson last year. With Jones and Dillon the obvious choices for RBs 1 & 2, Wilson would have to overtake Taylor, Nichols, and Goodson to have a shot at the final roster. Patrick Taylor was the 3rd RB choice for the final 53 the year before, Goodson spent 2022 on the Packers practice squad, and Lew Nichols was a 7th-round pick in the recent draft. So, it was plausible that Emanuel Wilson didn't stand a chance at making the team. But due to injuries to Goodson and Nichols, Wilson got most of the preseason reps and stood out enough to overtake his competition for a spot on the final 53. 

For the first 10 games of the season, Wilson only saw action in 7. During this time he had 14 carries for 85 yards. A good chunk of which came after a 31-yard carry against the Rams in week 8. In the passing game, Wilson had four catches for 23 yards. Unfortunately, in week 11, Wilson suffered a shoulder injury and wouldn't play again until the playoffs where he'd see 13 touches for about 47 yards combined in two games. Of course, this first year for Emanuel Wilson wasn't exactly impressive, but it wasn't unimpressive either. At times it seemed as if Wilson was only on the roster as a stash and develop player. The Packers turned to the more experienced running backs when needed even bringing back Patrick Taylor to the game-day roster to seemingly leap-frog Wilson in snaps taken. 

Emanuel Wilson seems to have the potential to be a solid RB3 and there was some chatter early in the offseason that he could have some RB2 potential. But with the Packers signing Josh Jacobs, re-signing AJ Dillon, and drafting MarShawn Lloyd, it seems as if his chances have perhaps gotten thinner. At least on the Packers' roster.

Sticking Out Despite Heavy Competition

Two new running backs have automatically leap-frogged Emanuel Wilson on the Packers' depth chart. Josh Jacobs has already proved himself to be a starting NFL running back, so his replacement of Aaron Jones is expected. The other, is rookie third-round draft pick, MarShawn Lloyd. I refer back to my commentary on UDFA's being valued lower than draft picks. It doesn't matter if MarShawn Lloyd's training camp is "meh" at best, he will be on the Packers' 53-man roster. A rookie third-round pick is not a player you cut and hope they make it to the practice squad for development. That third-round pick investment means that the player has a spot on your final roster unless they are hurt. So, there's no chance Emanuel Wilson is overtaking MarShawn Lloyd for a roster spot.

Well, then how is Emanuel Wilson going to make it?

It is with a heavy heart that I have to say, that if Emanuel Wilson wants to make the Packers' final roster, he needs to beat out AJ Dillon. There is no chance the Packers are keeping four running backs. Not with the investments they have in their receivers and offensive linemen. So, if Wilson is making the team, he has to edge out the mayor of Door County.  Many thought that AJ Dillon was a goner until suddenly it was announced that he was signed to a new deal with the team. It made sense at the time to bring him back given the uncertainty of the Packers' running back room before the draft only having Josh Jacobs as the lone experienced back. But after the Packers got their hands on MarShawn Lloyd, it seemed that a Jacobs/Lloyd-led backfield could be a possibility with AJ Dillon kind of battling to stay relevant in Green Bay. The deal signed by Dillon means the Packers won't lose out on much if they cut Dillon before the season starts, so his spot on the roster is far from a guarantee.

Emanuel Wilson really shined in the preseason of 2023. And he's going to need to do that again to make the roster in 2024. It won't be easy. AJ Dillon has returned to the Packers a bit leaner than he was before and he has a chip on his shoulder to ensure he stays in Green Bay much longer. I see two scenarios where AJ Dillon is kept over Emanuel Wilson. The first is that Dillon shows out in training camp that he's gotten a bit better and is worth keeping for longer. The second, is perhaps MarShawn Lloyd doesn't catch on as quickly as anticipated. If Lloyd shows he needs to work on his game a bit more, Dillon could be easily kept to spell Josh Jacobs at the start of the season as the more experienced running back. 

If either of those scenarios occurs and Emanuel Wilson finds himself a roster-cut victim, it's not all for not, as I believe he will catch on elsewhere. It may not be right away, it could be after a stint on the Packers practice squad, but he does have the talent to remain on a 53-man roster. Many say if the odds are stacked against you in camp, still show out as you could be auditioning for another team once camp is over. 

I see Emanuel Wilson as a roster-cut victim heading to the practice squad or perhaps another team. Unless Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd look like Matt LaFleur-offense veterans by the end of camp, I think AJ Dillon's experience has him beat out Wilson. If that does happen, I hope he sticks on the Packers practice squad as after just another year, he could have his chance as a full-timer.