Happy Thanksgiving Packer fans. Tonight while you digest turkey, stuffing, and mashed potatoes, your Green Bay Packers will be taking on the Miami Dolphins in a prime-time matchup. This will be just the second time the Packers have hosted a Thanksgiving game in their history, with the first being back in 2015 when Chicago came to town for the night Brett Favre's number 4 was retired. We won't talk about that game. All I'll say is, hopefully, this one will be better. 

The 8-3 Packers are coming off their big 38-10 victory over the San Francisco 49ers despite the Niners being a little short-handed, it definitely put a little extra wind in the sails of this Packers team to deal as big of a blow as they did to a team that's had their number over the years. The Dolphins are 5-6 and don't let that record give you the wrong idea as they are riding high off a three-game winning streak after defeating the New England Patriots 34-15 at home. The Packers will be hoping to create a three-game winning streak of their own while Miami will aim to keep their playoff hopes alive with another. 

These two teams last met in Miami on Christmas Day of 2022. The NFL must enjoy pairing these two on holidays. The Packers were victorious in that game coming away with a 26-20 victory after they went on a 16-unanswered point streak following Miami getting out to a 20-10 lead midway through the second quarter. Former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers finished the game with 238 yards on 24 completed passes for 1 touchdown and 1 interception. In comparison, current Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa finished with 310 yards on 16 completions for 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Winning the turnover battle was key in this game as the Packers couldn't muster a whole lot of production on the ground and the passing game was just enough to come away with a win.

On Sunday it was all Josh Jacobs all day as he ran for 106 yards on 26 carries for three touchdowns in the victory over San Francisco. Jordan Love was definitely improved in not throwing any turnovers but his stat sheet wasn't the most impressive throwing for 163 yards on 13 completions for two touchdowns. This came off 23 attempts though as drops and the loss of Romeo Doubs to a concussion during the game played a bit of a factor. The defense absolutely stood out though holding the 49ers running game to only 44 net yards and minimizing the production of backup QB Brandon Allen. 

They face another formidable foe today in the Miami Dolphins, but hopefully, the Packers can pull off another good win at home. 

What to see on Offense

Everybody loves the air show when it comes to offense. Packer fans are no different as they've lived and died off it for the last 30+ years having high-level quarterback play year in and year out. But there are a select few of us who are sick and twisted and enjoy a bullying, methodical running game. When the offense imposes their will saying "We're running the football right at you, come and stop us" and the opposition just can't do it. I was born about 20 years after the Lombardi era, but I've always marveled over how great it must've been to watch Paul Hornung and Jim Taylor just run all over defenses, and then Bart Starr just chucks it over their heads leaving them dumbfounded. Well, Josh Jacobs is a running back who can bring that approach back. 

Jacobs ran for 106 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries this past Sunday against San Francisco and for once, it was the Packers bullying the 49ers. This week, the Packers face a Miami Dolphins defense that ranks 9th in the league allowing 106.9 yards rushing per game. Of course, facing a top-10 defense against the run makes you think that perhaps it may be tough to run this week. Well, the Packers put up 169 yards rushing on a 49ers defense that was ranked 10th and only allowed an average of 110 yards rushing against them. So, that's how much averages against have mattered to this offense this season. 

When it comes to personnel, the rush defense is led by Calais Campbell the 38-year-old wonder who is still a run-stuffer this late in his career.  Linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the team in tackles by a considerable margin at 95 so far this season while fellow linebackers Anthony Walker Jr. and David Long Jr. don't even come close to his total with 48 and 38 tackles respectively. The rest of the defensive line is kind of average but has shown a few effective flashes here and there. 

I'm not going to say the Packers are just going to run all over the Dolphins, but they do have a chance for Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson to have an effective impact on this game. 

To the passing game. As many know, Romeo Doubs exited the game Sunday with a concussion and he will not be playing tonight. The Packers will likely be relying on a mix of Dontayvion Wicks and Malik Heath to take the place of Doubs and will be hoping for Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft to fill in the gap a bit as well. In the middle of the field and on 3rd downs I wouldn't be surprised to see Tucker Kraft receive some extra targets in this game to make up for Doubs' production. Unfortunately, there's been a bit of a drop plague in Green Bay as of late. Jordan Love has been hitting his receivers, but his receivers haven't been able to hang on to the ball. Hopefully, they can eradicate that plague tonight as Miami's defense doesn't need any help stopping the pass. 

Leading Miami's 8th-ranked defense against the pass is CB Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey should be very familiar to Packer fans as he's famous for trying to start drama with Davante Adams in past matches only for Adams to seemingly troll him by cleverly beating him at times. The Packers don't have a Davante Adams-like receiver to mess with Ramsey this time around though so it's likely he will line up and take whomever is near him. Ramsey leads the team with two interceptions and seven passes defended. Behind Ramsey though, would be Kendall Fuller, however, Fuller, like Doubs is expected to be out with a concussion tonight. So, fellow corners Kader Kohou and Storm Duck will have to step up in his place. On the back end, the Dolphins have safeties Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland who have had decent seasons themselves. 

When it comes to the pass rush, Calais Campbell headlines again tied with fellow DT Zach Sieler for the team lead of four sacks. Linebackers Chop Robinson and Emmanuel Ogbah aren't far behind with 3.5 each. Miami only ranks 26th in sacks this season. So with the Packers offensive line keeping Jordan Love pretty well protected as of late, I don't see the pass rush being a considerable problem tonight. 

In my opinion, this is likely going to be one of those games where the offense is going to need a good mix of run and pass to be successful. I think they will be a little more successful on the ground and hopefully, that will lead to play-action opening up where Jordan Love and the Packers pass catchers can take over. 

What to See on Defense

The most impressive part of Sunday's game against San Francisco in my opinion was the Packers' defense's ability to stop the run. Granted the scoreboard got away from the 49ers, they were still held to only 44 net yards rushing. If you would've told me at the start of the season that a Packers' defense would hold Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason to under 50 yards total, I'd be shocked. Obviously, this isn't the defense of years past. Tonight will be another test for this defense on the ground. 

De'Von Achane leads the Dolphins rushing attack with 562 yards on 132 carries with three touchdowns while Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert have 59 and 60 carries each for 243 yards and 217 yards and two touchdowns. They're a pretty decent three-headed rushing attack, but they are averaging only 116.8 yards per game which is good for 16th in the league.  With the way the Packers have been performing against the run lately, I think they should have a good chance to keep it under control but they can't afford to let it get ahead of them as the three backs could wear them out if given the chance. 

The Packers will be without linebacker Edgerrin Cooper tonight. Cooper would be a big help against the run so he could be missed tonight, however, he didn't play Sunday either and the Packers handled the run pretty well. Hopefully Miami's running back by committee system doesn't change that. 

Switching to the passing attack, Tua Tagovailoa is certainly a viable opponent especially since returning from his concussion recovery as the Dolphins have put up an average of 29 points per game in the five games since he returned. The Packers haven't done a very good job with their pass rush so far this season, but tonight is a time they will need to pick that up. Matt LaFleur said earlier this week that "Tua does such a great job of throwing with anticipation." He said that you need to disrupt his timing otherwise he will make you pay. It's time for Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, JJ Enagbare, and Brenton Cox Jr. to ruin the Dolphins' turkey day and get after Tua. We could see some blitzing here and there as well to help them out, but given Miami's weapons, you'd better get home on that blitz, or you could regret it. 

WR Tyreek Hill is nicknamed "Cheetah" for a reason. He's scary fast. We're going to see a lot of cushion given to him by defenders to prevent getting beat deep for a huge play and as a result that ball could come out a little sooner to Hill to take advantage. After Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins have WR Jaylen Waddle who is a playmaker in his own right and then Tight End Jonnu Smith who has had a great season so far. It's not a promising look to not have Jaire Alexander in this game, as he will be out tonight again, but the rest of the Packers' secondary is going to have to step up in blanketing these pass-catchers before they torch them. 

This could turn into a track meet between the two teams depending on how defenses respond. But the best defense against Miami's offense tonight, could be the Packers' offense. If the offense can put together some methodical drives on the ground to chew up the clock, Miami's offense is left getting cold on the sidelines. I've said in the past that the Packers have kind of lacked the cold-weather advantage, but it's all in how they are built. If they can piece together methodical scoring drives on offense, the weather can take effect on the opposing offense where they start to get miserable just standing around in it and lack that burst when they get on the field. 

Extra Notes

It's seemed like a rarity in recent memory that the Packers could rely on both their punter and kicker. But that's exactly what we have today as Brandon McManus and Daniel Whelan have both been outstanding. 

Whelan continued to be a weapon last week averaging 48.8 yards on 4 punts with a long of 59 yards. Dolphins punter, Jack Bailey has struggled a bit this season with a net average of 40 yards per punt and has had one blocked. The Packers will likely look to take advantage of that for field position if possible. 

McManus went 5/5 on PATs and nailed a 51-yard field goal that ended up being the Packers' longest field goal so far this season. On the Dolphins' side, Jason Sanders has been fairly decent this season going 21/25 for field goals, and hasn't missed an extra point yet. He's at about a 77% conversion rate on 50+ yard field goals.

When it comes to kickoff coverage, Miami is ranked second and has a 75% touchback rate. So, I wouldn't expect a lot of returns for Keisean Nixon, but hey, you never know. 

In the End

With Thursday games, you always hear about how it's a short week and hopefully, the team will be rested enough to be successful come kickoff. Well, remember, both teams are on the same boat, and the Packers probably have the advantage of being at home while the Dolphins have to make the 3-hour flight and then stay at a hotel. 

It won't be an easy one, but there is a path to victory if the Packers can find it. Hopefully, tonight ends with Jordan Love finally getting the turkey leg he deserved last year. Honestly, NBC should bring two to make up for Fox's mishap last year. But Jordan can hand the second off to Josh Jacobs as I believe he'll deserve one as well. Go Pack Go.