How Important is Taking Back the North?
Is winning the division still an important step?
By GregMeinholz
Before OTAs, the NFL draft, and sometimes even free agency, each team has goals in mind for the upcoming season. Some teams are well aware that they may not be competitive, so their main goal is development. They want the players they consider the future to take a few steps toward improvement and develop team chemistry, so that maybe next year, with a few additions, they can compete. Others, who are ready to compete, always have that first step in mind to achieve their goals. That first step, for most teams, is to win their division. For the Green Bay Packers, Matt LaFleur has often said winning the division is an essential first step of the season as it guarantees a home playoff game in January. But Packers fans have often taken a division championship for granted.
When Bears GM Ryan Poles was hired in 2022, he famously said the Bears would take the NFC North and never give it back. Of course, Packers fans laughed at this quote and made comments along the lines of "You can win the division, we'll win the Super Bowl." This type of mindset has some roots in the fact that in 2010, the Bears won the NFC North title, but the Packers then defeated the Bears in the NFC Championship game and went on to win Super Bowl XLV. That 2010 division title became a bit tainted for the Bears since they were eventually defeated by their arch-rival in one of the biggest games in their franchise history. That mindset also became the basis of former coach Mike McCarthy saying the Packers don't hang banners for division titles, only Super Bowls.
For the last 30 years, a division title has practically been a birthright for Packers fans. The team has won it 14 times since 1996. That dwarfs Minnesota's eight division titles, Chicago's six, and Detroit's two in the same timeframe. However, it's been four seasons since the Packers' last division title. That's tied for the longest division title drought the franchise has had in 30 years. The previous four-year drought was between 1997 and 2002. In those four years, the Packers made the playoffs twice and won a playoff game. In the current four-year drought, they've made the playoffs three times, winning one playoff game. They had their shot in the playoffs even without the division title, but just didn't advance.
Two of arguably the best teams in recent Packers history have been the 2011 and 2021 squads. In 2011, the Packers went 15-1 and were an offensive juggernaut that could barely be stopped. In 2021, the team seemed almost complete all around, going 13-4. Both of these squads were division championship winners. But both of them lost their first playoff game. You could argue that a significant injury to David Bakhtiari derailed the 2021 team, but the 2011 team just wasn't all the way there in some areas and was eventually exposed. Of course, these teams had some asterisks that led to their demise, which can be used to argue, but they were still division championship winners who were heavily favored, but fell apart.
It begs the question, just how truly important is winning the division?
Much like Matt LaFleur has said, winning the division guarantees you a home playoff game. But the division-winning Packers have been defeated on their home field in that very first home playoff game. The weather you're acclimated to, sleeping in your own bed the night before a game, and having the home crowd behind you is obviously nice. But in past Packer history, it's also been proven that the underdog mentality can persevere.
There's the obvious example of 2010 when the on-the-road underdog Packers team defeated three teams on their way to greatness. There's also the 2023 season, where the Jordan Love-led Packers squeaked out a playoff berth with a win in the final game of the regular season, achieving a 9-8 record. They went on to humiliate the second-seeded Dallas Cowboys before they barely lost to the first-seeded San Francisco 49ers. If not for a few plays going against them, they could have made it to the NFC Championship game as the last seed on-the-road underdog yet again.
But you can't always count on pulling off a miracle run.
The national media loves the story of the long-tortured Detroit Lions finally gaining relevancy. They love the idea of the little brother Chicago Bears finally getting the best of the big brother Packers. And they would undoubtedly love a Vikings run after a horrendous 2025 campaign. But the Packers can't let it happen. Whether it truly matters or not if you win the division in today's NFL or earn a wild card spot, there's the matter of making yourself the team to beat. Making yourself the measuring stick. The Packers have dominated the NFC North for a long time. They have been that measuring stick for the rest of the division. But now, suddenly, people are talking about the Bears or the Lions being that measuring stick. We cannot let it stand. They need to take back control of the NFC North once again and prove that the Green Bay Packers are still the obstacle that stands between every team and greatness.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (37)
Coldworld
July 08, 2026 at 10:08 am
There is no great team in the North outside of Chicagoan imaginations. If we can’t finish over .500 against them then we are not one either. Winning the division itself depends on 11 other games where injury and timing tilt scales over the season. Winning the majority of the 6 against the division should be goal one. Looking at it I think .750 should be the threshold for adequacy this season with this roster and this long into this regime. Do that, and the Division may follow.
KenEllis
July 08, 2026 at 12:16 pm
Taking the NFC North is apparently not that important ... given the head coach and GM have not won the North since 2021 and both got contract extensions in 2026.
GreenandBold
July 08, 2026 at 01:01 pm
Apparently winning play off games is not important either . Which begs the question what is important ?
Since'61
July 08, 2026 at 10:33 am
Winning the games against the division opponents is critical to reaching the playoffs and preferably it leads to winning the division title which includes at least one home playoff game. Unfortunately the Packers have not always played very well in some of their home playoff games.
The Packers dominated the North because they had 30 years of HOF QB play from 1992 to 2022. I don't know if Love will reach that level of play or even if he is the best QB in the division. The other factor that is needed to "Take back the North" is better coaching especially at the HC level. MLF is not Mike Holmgren or even Mike McCarthy. Besides MLF the Packers have been plagued with weak ST coaches and weak DCs, except for possibly Hafley who has moved on to Miami.
The fact is that the Packers would not have even reached the playoffs over the last four seasons if the NFL did not change the playoff format. The NFC North is gong to be a tough dogfight in 2026. All 4 teams have their strengths and weaknesses. I don't see any of the teams being dominant at this point.
Bottom line is that to take back the North the Packers need better coaching, better QB play and hopefully a significant decrease in injuries. Thanks, Since '61
TarynsEyes
July 08, 2026 at 11:17 am
If they could only check off all those 'hopes' AL wrote in his article earlier.
golfpacker61
July 08, 2026 at 11:24 am
"The fact is that the Packers would not have even reached the playoffs over the last four seasons if the NFL did not change the playoff format. The NFC North is going to be a tough dogfight in 2026."
This is where it starts and ends for us 61. I hate the Bears but they have become a better team with a loudmouth coach. I would love it to shut him up this year. 9 or 10 wins this year probably doesn't even get us in the playoffs this year. Sooner or later GB needs to finally reach the potential, or a new direction is needed.
dobber
July 09, 2026 at 08:29 am
If the argument for the Bears is "the division winner from the past year is the king until dethroned" then I guess your point on the Bears being better would stand...after all, there were plenty around here including writers who used to say that about the Packers in the 2010s.
I don't think the Bears are better. I think they rode emotion through 2025 and got a lot of happy bounces. They overachieved on an unsustainable TO margin with a defense that was otherwise very porous and is replacing some of their better players with players of no better resume. The QB might play well in free-wheeling comeback mode, but seemed uninterested in playing in a designed game plan most weeks. The OL is replacing their LT and C. I think the Lions are better. I think the Packers are better.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 09, 2026 at 12:33 pm
The Lions have plenty of questions that might wind up making them worse.
While the same could be said of the Packers, I also see lots of reasons to be optimistic. Most of that hinges on player development ...
GPG!
Turophile
July 09, 2026 at 02:59 pm
" The fact is that the Packers would not have even reached the playoffs over the last four seasons if the NFL had not changed the playoff format. "
Hmmm. if you change one aspect of the past, there are now (effectively) infite possibilities for other, unanticipated changes. You cannot make one change in the past and expect nothing else to change, so NO, you don't know how the future would have panned out over the last 4 seasons with no rule change.
In a changed past, some futures might result in the end of the world, in others the Packers win the SB, and them missing the playoffs is yet another alternative. You need to understand the butterfly effect, which can be summed up in six words, Do not mess with the past.
As for 10 wins PROBABLY not getting the Packers to the playoffs.....yes it has happened before, but 'probably'.................that's a real stretch.
GreenandBold
July 08, 2026 at 01:03 pm
Dare to dream
dobber
July 09, 2026 at 08:38 am
"The fact is that the Packers would not have even reached the playoffs over the last four seasons if the NFL did not change the playoff format. "
Most people seem to want to piss and moan over this, seeming to want to live relative to the 13-3 seasons with "He who should not be named" at QB in LaF's first few seasons but don't seem to want to recognize that this is an entirely rebuilt roster since that time--you know, when the majority opinion seemed to be "jettison Voldemort, get draft picks, rebuild." Which they did...and they never went through that shitty period most rebuilding teams go through. I come back to the point that I'm starting to wonder if this team is actually OVER achieving its parts rather than underachieving.
Doesn't change the fact that the playoffs are where you want to be, and they've been getting there. The Packers didn't change the standards to their own benefit, and I don't diminish them getting there just because the league was looking for an extra week of profits.
It doesn't change the fact that we want elevated play and deep playoff runs.
Leatherhead
July 08, 2026 at 10:33 am
If you win the division, your first playoff game is at home. If you win, you're one of the four best teams in the conference.
The age-old recipe for winning the division is to win all your home games, and pick up a few road wins. That's all you have to do. Win your home games, especially against division opponents, and beat a couple of weak teams on the road. That's usually enough. Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit.....Dallas, Atlanta....Bills, Dolphins, Texans. Win those 8 home games . The rest will take care of itself.
Since'61
July 08, 2026 at 10:38 am
True. We also have a ninth home game against the Panthers this season. Win all 9 and we only need 2-3 road wins to reach the playoffs and probably win the division. Thanks, Since '61
Leatherhead
July 08, 2026 at 10:49 am
I thought I had missed one. We don't need to beat the Patriots in Foxboro, or the Rams in LA,but we do need to beat the Panthers in Lambeau.
Since'61
July 08, 2026 at 11:27 am
Agree LH. I think that the Bills will be the toughest home game for the Packers. We'll see. Thanks, Since '61
Leatherhead
July 08, 2026 at 12:55 pm
It does stick out. I'm not sure how good the Bills will be without the guy who's been coaching them the last few years. They might not be as good this year.
Fortunately, this is our least important home game. Not a division opponent, not a conference opponent. They, and the Dolphins, are our least important home games....numbers #8 and #9 on the list.
dobber
July 09, 2026 at 08:46 am
One of these years, someone's going to take Josh Allen's head off and the Bills will realize just how much of their water he was carrying. He makes plenty of very visible mistakes, but they're going nowhere without him. That said, until it happens, I think DJ Moore is going to be an absolute dynamo in that offense.
Cheezehead72
July 08, 2026 at 10:51 am
The rallycry should be win all home games and all division games that would be at least a 12-5 season. But the Packers will not even come close to 12-5.
TarynsEyes
July 08, 2026 at 11:21 am
The same applies to the other teams in the division.
Snap the ball
July 08, 2026 at 10:51 am
Correct leather
These teams since 1994 should win all home games other than the year we had the kid running the ball who is a Doctor. Oh yah Samkon Gado.
Samkon was the highlight of that year. Mike Sherman lost the pieces still in place from Mike Holmgren years.
I believe Mike Sherman teams won all home games one of the years.
Big concern is Watson. , Reed paid money. Kraft is next. I hope it doesn't impact them thinking each needs t.he ball more like the NBA and some NFL players .
I’m not too concerned with Watson and Reed changing over the money and targets.
Need Tom and Wyatt back. Is huge for this team.
Cheezehead72
July 08, 2026 at 10:55 am
I do not see Watson, Reed, or Kraft demanding more throws. They are team players.
I always like Sankon. He was a guy that came from nowhere and then road into the sunset to become a very good medical doctor.
Snap the ball
July 08, 2026 at 10:53 am
They will be the Patriots….that one is circled by the team I bet
Snap the ball
July 08, 2026 at 10:54 am
They will beat the Patriots…..
NFLfan
July 09, 2026 at 09:02 am
Who on the Packer's Pass Rush is going to deal with D. Maye, AJ Brown and Doubs w/o Parsons?
SicSemperTyrannis
July 09, 2026 at 12:43 pm
On November 8?
I think you're asking the wrong question.
splitpea1
July 08, 2026 at 11:18 am
Ideally you want to win the division, but if not, be playing your best football going into the playoffs; that means all three units are firing on all cylinders and the coaching staff has all the right formulas for nailing down the wins. If you're playing your best football, you should be able to go through the playoffs like a chainsaw whether the games are at home or on the road.
Leatherhead
July 08, 2026 at 12:52 pm
Other teams are also playing their best football. Chainsawing your way through 3 good opponents isn't easy, especially on the road.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 09, 2026 at 12:46 pm
Our HC relying on formula is how he's gotten out coached so frequently in big games.
Lots more quick thinking on his feet and making necessary adjustments as a game unfolds is needed.
HarryHodag
July 08, 2026 at 11:29 am
I've posed this question before but it's worth another look.
I can't recall when four teams in one division all made the playoffs. Therefore, one to three teams in the division will not be in the playoffs. If you look at the four division teams who will be in and who will be out? Quite honestly, all four teams have powerful offenses and better than average defenses. On paper, very close.
Until training camp ends, I can't pick a division winner or teams out of the playoffs with any degree of certainty. The Packers could win the division or finish fourth. Each team is very close.
Cheezehead72
July 08, 2026 at 12:11 pm
The last time four teams from one division made the playoffs was in 1998 when the AFC East did it. Before that was 1994 and 1997 when the NFC Central did it. That was when there were 5 teams to a division. It has not happened with 4 teams to a division but with the increase in wildcard teams it is possible.
dobber
July 09, 2026 at 08:05 am
Bottom line is that there are so many questions surrounding key players for the Packers (Morgan, Parsons, Tom, Kraft) that it's very difficult to predict just how this team will play...and they need to start fast because that appears to be the part of the schedule where--based on 2025--they can make some hay.
A slow start, even with players coming back and hopefully rounding into form, makes it very difficult to get to the playoffs much less win a division.
golfpacker61
July 08, 2026 at 11:29 am
Winning the North should mean we will go into the playoffs firing on all cylinders. I am glad we have infused some veteran leadership into the mix, they need to lead all of the young talent to the next level. I think we still need 2-3 solid vets at Edge, CB, & OL. Maybe RB too depending on Jacobs legal situation.
T7Steve
July 08, 2026 at 04:44 pm
Winning the division is nice. In order to not sound like an off-season Bear fan, I'll settle for winning at least 3 of the last 5 regular season games.
GregC
July 08, 2026 at 02:33 pm
If they go 13-4 and lose the division that's better than going 9-8 and winning the division, playoff seeding be damned.
Brewcity_BearsFan
July 08, 2026 at 06:21 pm
On paper, the NFC North, and NFC West look to be the best divisions in the NFL.
The Cardinals drag down the curve for the West, but IMO, the top three teams in that division, are all ahead of all 4 teams in the north.
Tye four North teams will beat the shit out of each other, and I would not be surprised if all four went 3-3 in the division. If one can manage to get a road win, (or 2), I think that team will be the one that gets the 3 seed. ( I am predicting the North will be the 3, behind the Rams and Cowboys).
NFLfan
July 09, 2026 at 08:57 am
The Bears have 3 advantages-a tactically stronger coach, a better O-Line and a QB who can scramble and will fight to come back and win. We saw that numerous times last year. The Packers currently don't close games well.
gsd3
July 09, 2026 at 03:08 pm
Very important unless everyone is satisfied with the 7th seed.