The 8-3 Packers stay home at Lambeau Field this week to host a 5-6 Miami Dolphins team on Thanksgiving night. It’s a short turnaround for both teams who had dominant wins on Sunday, and the Dolphins are showing signs of life after looking dead in the water earlier this year. Interestingly, this is the first ever Thursday contest between the Packers and Dolphins. Here are six things to keep in mind going into the game, after you’ve enjoyed your third slice of pie. 

1. Thankful for Free Agency

We’ve talked about Josh Jacobs and Xavier McKinney a lot in the Six Pack this year, and rightfully so. The additions of both players completely overhauled their respective positions, and week after week Jacobs and McKinney make big plays in big moments. 

Last Sunday, Jacobs tied a career-high when he rushed for three touchdowns against the 49ers. He finished the day with 26 carries for 106 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt. It was only the third time this season he’s eclipsed 100 rushing yards, but he’s ranked third in the NFL with 944. What’s more, when Jacobs passed 100 yards on Sunday, he became the first rusher to do so against the 49ers in the last 55 games, which snapped the NFL’s longest streak since 1955, per the broadcast. He has already exceeded both his touchdown total and scrimmage total from last season with the Raiders, and he’s played in two less games. 

On the other side of the ball, McKinney continues his candidacy for Defensive Player of the Year, snagging his seventh interception of the season on Sunday. That ties him with Kerby Joseph for first in the NFL. Seven picks are the most of McKinney’s career, and his nine passes defensed this season are only two shy of his previous career high (11 in 2023). His 49.2 passer rating allowed when targeted is also the best of his career. 

General Manager Brian Gutekunst has a tendency to offer big second contracts to ascending NFL players, and he hit it out of the park with both Jacobs (2019 NFL Draft) and McKinney (2020 NFL Draft). 

2. Stuffing the Run

Packers fans are all too familiar with Green Bay’s run defense in previous years, especially against the 49ers in big playoff moments. So holding San Francisco’s offense to 44 total rushing yards on Sunday is about as big a win as anyone could ask for with a healthy Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup. It was the best performance by the run defense since Week 3 against the Titans, when the unit only gave up 33 yards on the ground, and the fourth time this season Green Bay has held an opposing offense under 100 rushing yards. 

Enter the Miami Dolphins. Miami ranks ninth in rushing attempts but is 16th in yards (1,285), 21st in rushing touchdowns (eight), and 23rd in yards per attempt with 4.1. The Dolphins are on a three-game win streak, but the offense has failed to eclipse 85 rushing yards in all three contests. Interestingly, when the Dolphins were on their three-game losing streak, the team averaged 129 rushing yards per game. 

The Packers defense is 13th in the league defending against the run, giving up an average of 112.7 yards on the ground per game. The unit has allowed 10 rushing scores this season, which ranks 12th in the NFL, and they’re allowing an average of 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks ninth in the league. 

The Dolphins have taken a backfield by committee approach this season, though De’Von Achane has been the bell cow for the bulk of the year. He has 562 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground, but an additional 373 receiving yards with five receiving scores, giving him 935 scrimmage yards and eight total touchdowns this year. That’s double the touchdowns of anyone else on the roster.

3. On a Roll

As mentioned above, the Dolphins are on a three-game win streak after starting the season 2-6. At 5-6, Miami is now eighth in the AFC and is two games out from a Wild Card spot. That means they’ll have plenty to play for on Thursday night, even if their playoff odds currently sit at 16%. 

Tagovailoa has 13 touchdowns to only four interceptions in his seven games this season, but he’s taken 13 sacks for a loss of 101 yards, averaging a loss of almost eight yards per sack. His current completion percentage of 73.3% would be the highest of his career if it held the rest of the regular season, as would his 106.2 passer rating. 

He has a number of weapons to throw to in a loaded Dolphins offense. Three different pass catchers have gone over 500 yards this season. Tyreek Hill leads the team with 571 yards and is tied with Achane for the team lead in receptions at 49. Hill has three scores this season. Jaylen Waddle isn’t far behind with 548 yards on 41 receptions with two touchdowns. And tight end Jonnu Smith has made a significant impact in his first year in Miami. He has 48 receptions for 535 yards and four touchdowns. 

The Packers defense ranks ninth in passing attempts, 11th in yards, 12th in passing touchdowns, and seventh in interceptions with 11. With Evan Williams back these last two weeks, the secondary is close to full strength. Jaire Alexander remains sidelined and is unlikely to play on a short week. The unit is also back to generating takeaways, posting three against San Francisco after two straight games without a turnover. 

4. Oh Good Gravy

The Dolphins have stars on each side of the ball, with players ranking at the tops of their respective positions across the 53-man roster. By Pro Football Focus metrics, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is ranked second out of 110 eligible players with an overall grade of 83.0. He leads the Dolphins with two interceptions and seven passes defensed this season. Defensive tackle Calais Campbell is ranked fifth out of 120 defensive linemen with a PFF grade of 79.7. Campbell ranks second on the Dolphins defense with five passes defensed, and he’s tied for the team lead in sacks with Zach Sieler. Both have four. Sieler is also 10th out of 120 linemen with an overall grade just behind Campbell’s at 77.9. 

On offense, left tackle Terron Armstead is as elite as they come, ranking second out of 75 qualifying tackles with an overall grade of 90.8. Center Aaron Brewer is fourth out of 38 players with a 77.9 grade. While Miami’s left tackle and center are some of the best at their respective positions, both guard spots and right tackle are the weak links on the line. It’s PFF’s 14th-ranked offensive line this season, and the Packers were able to register three sacks on Sunday against a better 49ers unit (though they were missing Trent Williams). 

Both teams will be dealing with plenty of injuries on a short week. We already mentioned that Alexander likely won’t be out there for Green Bay’s defense, and we should expect that inside linebacker Edgerrin Cooper won’t play, either. Fellow inside linebacker Isaiah McDuffie is also on the injury report and didn't practice on Tuesday, which could mean the Packers are incredibly thin at linebacker on Thursday night. Romeo Doubs left Sunday’s game with a concussion and will have an uphill battle to clear concussion protocol in time for kickoff, so the offense will plan to be without him in the lineup. For Miami Armstead and Ramsey are dealing with knee injuries, though both are expected to play Thursday night. Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel told the media on Monday that the team expects to be without corner Kendall Fuller who has a concussion, and linebacker Anthony Walker who’s dealing with a hamstring injury. 

5. Pie in the Sky 

Sunday’s game versus the 49ers was about as clean a football game as we’ve seen from this Packers squad through 11 games this season. It was Jordan Love’s first interception-free game this year. The offense went 6-of-13 for 46.2% on third downs. After struggling all season in the red zone, the Packers went 5-of-5 and scored 35 points on three rushing touchdowns and two passing scores. 

Green Bay controlled time of possession and the defense not only forced three turnovers, but held the opposing team to 10 points. The 49ers were only able to convert 30% of third downs and were unsuccessful on both fourth down tries. It was also a clean game from a penalty perspective, with the Packers getting flagged five times for a total of 40 yards. 

On Thursday night, the Packers will meet a Dolphins squad that’s ranked fifth in third down defense and seventh in red zone defense. Miami’s defense also has a takeaway in four straight games, and they’ve allowed under 100 rushing yards in five consecutive contests. The Packers will need to play another clean game to help slow down a Miami team that’s getting hot at the right time, even if Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games colder than 40 degrees. 

6. Lost in the Sauce

The Packers enter Thursday night’s contest with an 8-3 record, sitting at third place in the NFC North. Per NFL research, this is the best record by any team in third place or worse entering Week 13 since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. This will be the start of a four-game stretch of primetime contests for the Packers, including back-to-back Thursday Night games, a Sunday Night Football game versus Seattle, and a Monday Night Football contest at home hosting the Saints. Per the dope sheet, this is only the second home Thanksgiving game for the Packers since 1923, with the other coming in 2015 versus Chicago. It’s the first time Green Bay has played on Thanksgiving in consecutive seasons since they played against the Lions every season from 1951-1963. 

Here’s a quirky, random stat. Head Coach Matt LaFleur’s teams have never lost on a holiday. In 2021, the Packers won 24-22 against the Browns on Christmas day. The following season, the Packers traveled to Miami to play the Dolphins on Christmas and won 26-20. A week later, Green Bay hosted the Vikings on New Year’s Day and won handily, 41-17. Last season, the Packers traveled to Ford Field in LaFleur’s only other Thanksgiving matchup, and the Packers won 29-22. Then, they beat the Panthers 33-30 on Christmas Eve. Finally, Green Bay hosted the Vikings on New Year’s Eve in 2023 and won 33-10. That’s a 6-0 record. (And no, it's not a jinx. It's just a fun fact.) 

Hopefully LaFleur’s squad brings that same juice on Thursday (or sauce, if you will). And I think that is how we’re going to end this one. I hope you get to enjoy the holiday with your favorite people, and that your favorite football team brings you a seventh consecutive holiday win!